Ask a studio home entertainment exec what the big trend of this year's CES is, and the near-universal answer is "3-D in the living room."
Electronics companies from Sony to Panasonic to Samsung are showing off 3-D capable flat screens, vendors like Dolby are demonstrating ways to burn 3-D movies onto Blu-ray discs, and 3-D pioneers like 3ality Digital are broadcasting live sporting events and touting the "you are there" effect of dimensionality. Dolby exec Guido Voltolina estimates that as many as two million 3-D capable sets have already been sold worldwide. (The company bought a Mitsubishi rear-projection model it was using in a demo for $999.)
But the looming question is, how will content get to this new generation of 3-D capable sets?
Dolby has already developed its own content encoding process that can put 3-D content onto standard Blu-ray discs that will play in today's Blu-ray players.
"SMPTE will have a role, as will ATSC and CableLabs and the Blu-ray Disc Association," says Joshua Greer, founder of the 3-D technology developer Real D. "There are probably 7 to 10 consortiums that will contribute to a 3-D standard for the home." Greer predicted that getting to the point where DVDs are being released in an all-digital 3-D format could take 18 to 24 months, and getting to the point where 3-D fare is available over the airwaves or cable could longer than that.
"We can't have another Blu-ray/HD DVD standards war," Greer says.
Interestingly, this year Disney and New Line have released some DVDs, like "Journey to the Center of the Earth," using the old anaglyphic red-and-blue process, which isn't as high-quality as the approaches that use polarized glasses or active glasses with built-in LCD shutters. NBC will also broadcast a 3-D episode of "Chuck" next month, using the older technology. That could muddy the waters for consumers. "If anything, anaglyphic 3-D will remind you how bad 3-D looked when you were growing up," says Matt Chang, a staffer in Dolby's consumer electronics group.
But Disney home entertainment prexy Bob Chapek said that for some consumers, the red-and-blue glasses are fine. "For a movie like 'Hannah Montana' in 3-D, it's quite acceptable for that target audience," Chapek says. "But for a big Disney or Pixar release, we're going to make sure that we meet or exceed the consumer's expectation of what they're going to see."
Marty Shindler, CEO of consulting firm The Shindler Perspective, predicts that videogames, live sporting events, and movies will be the initial content that drives 3-D displays into the home. With about 14 new films being released in 3-D this year, that will help prime the pump.
"I think that next year, we will have a much better idea of where we sit," says Chapek. "There are a half-dozen different solutions on the floor, and we have to figure out what's viable."















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