Last night's "Law and Order: Special Victims Unit" preem managed to do what the finale several months ago did: serve as a cross-platform promo machine for Dean Winters.

Winters landed a recurring role on the procedural cop drama in 2000 as Detective Brian Cassidy, but his "SVU" role was only revisited this year as Cassidy went undercover doing security for a high-ranking Gotham pimp. 

Aside from his "SVU" stint, Winters may be known best for his spot on Allstate commercials as the conniving "Mayhem" guy leading to various home and auto calamities.

So, when NBC ran memorable Allstate commercials featuring Winters sandwiched between finale and premiere "SVU" episodes with Winters as a recurring role, viewers were left wondering, "Wait, isn't he-- wasn't that-- is this the Twilight Zone?"

Winters's disorienting appearances on both episodes of "SVU" and the skein's commercial breaks are not the first example of NBC's bizarre ad choices during "SVU."

Last season, after Chris Meloni abruptly ankled his longstanding lead role as Detective Elliot Stabler on "Special Victims Unit," NBC ran promos for HBO's "True Blood" during "SVU" -- promos that featured a recently cast Meloni in, well, some very detective-like garb (save the fangs).

Meloni joined the "True Blood" cast as a blood sucking, suit sporting, 500 year old vampire named Roman. Seeing him in "True Blood" commercials during "SVU" episodes that are still adjusting to his departure makes you wonder: what is NBC thinking? And is Stabler now a vampire?

Whether tuning "SVU," "True Blood" or Allstate spots, viewers can bet they're watching "The Twilight Zone" on NBC thanks to these strange ad placements.

The 2012 presidential election, otherwise known as the chest-puffing Olympics for many political commentators, continues to highlight the divisive nature of cable news nets in American society. As a member of Generation Y (or something like that), this is, for the most part, the only TV and radio aesthetic I've been exposed to. I've come of age in a time where revealing you're a Republican in a room full of liberals is a risky move, and Rush Limbaugh calls women "sluts." It's a weird time, but it's all I know. Yet, my mother and father, both Baby Boomers, tell me after each political confab and subsequent flurry of on-air yak-seshes that "It didn't always used to be like this...once, there was a sense of respect."

Vet journalist Ted Koppel took on what NBC dubbed "truthsayers," or the loud voices in political news that have established themselves through argumentative, alienating programming. The segment, which aired on "Rock Center" Thursday night, features Koppel asking anchors including Bill O'Reilly, Ann Coulter and Bill Maher about the growing trend of emphasizing an "us versus them" attitude in newscasts, and if they believe it is harmful to society.

With many in the American TV audience eagerly anticipating the Oct. 6 Jon Stewart vs. Bill O'Reilly pay per view debate and political yakking saturating the TV marketplace with the approaching election, Koppel's segment is not only timely, but crucial when it comes to understanding the implications of modern political news -- and how we might be able to change it.

Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

 

 

For as many "mehs" as "Saturday Night Live" may have accumulated over recent years, certainly one of the September 15 preem highlights for any TV biz member would be Seth McFarlane impersonating Ryan Lochte. "Lochte," adorned with Olympic medals, discusses the fresh shows bowing this fall with Seth Meyers and struggles through interviews in a way that is reminiscent of, well, most of Lochte's interviews. Shoddy wig aside, the segment garnered laughs from me, but maybe I'm jaded by all the press releases I'm buried under regarding premiere dates and times. Peep the segment below:

 

Psyched for the return of "Saturday Night Live" tonight. Gonna be real interesting to feel the vibe of a Wiig/Samberg-less cast.

Executive producer Lorne Michaels probably had to give Jason Sudeikis several Brinks trucks to stay with the show through January. It was crucial not only because of his Romney/Biden impressions, but to provide a stabilizing force during a transition year for the cast, having lost three and gained three new players in the offseason. The election year also puts "SNL" in a brighter spotlight than a normal year, which makes it all the more important to keep a star vet around a little bit longer.

Truth be told, Sudeikis doesn't offer that much more given he never truly established breakout characters on the show. He's actually one of the rare "SNL" products that will likely do better as a comedic actor outside "SNL," as his extensive movie credits can already attest.

The absence of all these vets clears the way for a new "SNL" alpha dog: Bill Hader. In truth, it felt like he already took top billing last season with his incredible versatility but Wiig's shadow stole some of his shine. Bet everything you will see one of his best impressions get used in tonight's season opener: Clint Eastwood. It's a slightly moldy target given the DNC was weeks ago but there's not a juicier parody possibility out there right now (though I'm also guessing "The Voice"/"The X Factor" will get some ribbing too).

But there's a bigger political parody to watch out for tonight: Michaels is reassigning Obama from Fred Armisen to Jay Pharoah, according to The New York Times. It's an exciting idea considering Armisen's Obama was serviceable at best, and Pharoah is capable of brilliance in the imitation department. But if Pharoah fails, there will be lots of grumbling.

As for why this transition is even happening, it makes sense considering given that in the event 0bama is re-elected, Armisen isn't likely to stick around for four more years atop the 10 he's already clocked at "SNL." Might as well make the change now than in the middle of a second term.

My guess is "SNL" won't just make a switch without calling attention to the switch itself; look for a skit that somehow calls for two Obamas. Maybe a mirror will be involved.

Also looking forward to another political impression that will likely get unveiled tonight: Taran Killam as VP contender Paul Ryan. It'll be tough to pull off but keep your eye on Killam this season. He showed real growth last season, the kind that can mean he's a breakout talent in the making.

A question: Will "SNL Digital Short" continue without Andy Samberg? And if it does, what IS and "SNL Digital Short" without Samberg?

There's also a small chance some of the new recruits being brought in for this season will make their debut tonight, which can be exciting. Its nice to have that memory when you lay eyes for the first time on someone who turns out down the line to be the next Will Ferrell or Gilda Radner.

Michaels should be so lucky...

One of the many ways media companies can demonstrate that most virtuous of corporate virtues--synergy--is when a TV network buys a series from the studio with which they share a corporate parent. All four of the broadcast networks have sister studios that provide varying amounts of their total programming volume, which helps keep the profits from a hit show to be confined to one conglomerate.

That's why the percentage of shows sold internally is a statistic of note to analysts like Nomura Securities, which tallied that 56% of this season’s new programs and 66% returning series will air on the sibling broadcast networks. That figure is slightly down from the past few years, but still well above the 50% low hit back in 2006.

But maybe this isn't the best statistic to gauge just how useful a studio is being to a network. In other words, maybe it's less about the quantity of programming being sold and more about the quality of the time slots in which these series are placed. Which makes the 2012-13 season a sorry state of affairs.

There may be no more important determinant of a show’s success than its lead-in. Doesn’t matter how good a series is, if it doesn’t have good lead-in support, its chances at survival are challenged.

So if a conglom really wanted to put all its weight behind a series in which it could partake of 100% of profits, there's no better move to make then giving said series the best time slots, right?

Take a look at the four coziest time slots available this coming season, based on the total audience generated by their lead-ins. (The list doesn't include higher rated series like "American Idol" that don't serve as a lead-in to anything):

1. Monday, 10 p.m., after NBC’s “The Voice”
2. Thursday, 8:30 p.m., after CBS’s “The Big Bang Theory”
3. Wednesday, 9:30 p.m., after ABC’s “Modern Family”
4. Monday, 8:30 p.m., after CBS’ “How I Met Your Mother”

A savvy corporate overlord might designate that these time slots go to shows that are from the networks' sister studios. And yet all four time slots go to the same external studio: Warner Bros. Television Group.

WBTV's new comedy “Partners” will get the “Mother” lead-in, which so effectively launched “2 Broke Girls” last season.  Its new drama “Revolution” (pictured above) is getting NBC’s best slot immediately after its reigning unscripted juggernaut.

Even WBTV’s returning shows are being shifted into new time slots following the top two-rated comedies on TV. Sophomore comedy “Suburgatory” should get a nice lift with “Modern” behind it, which should help the studio get maximum value for this half-hour in the syndication marketplace where it is currently being shopped. And veteran comedy “Two and a Half Men” made an unexpected move to Thursday where it is being paired with “Bang,” which could be just the thing to keep a series rolling that already has plenty of mileage on it.

Not sure whether this is a coincidence or WBTV Peter Roth somehow masterminded this sweep, but give the man a raise.

Showing love to outside studios wasn’t restricted to WBTV, however. Universal Television got a choice time slot for its only sale of the season outside NBC, “The Mindy Project,” with “New Girl” behind it (sixth highest-rated available lead-in). Now Fox has “Mindy” in the same Tuesday 9:30 p.m. time slot opposite what may be NBC’s own most promising comedy, “The New Normal.” They might be able to coexist, but is this worth the risk?

ABC is showing a little more sense. The fifth highest-rated available lead-in, “Once Upon A Time,” is being used as a lead-in for an ABC Studios show, “Revenge,” at 9 p.m. ABC also uses what may be its most effective lead-in property, “Dancing with the Stars,” to support its sister studio, both on Monday at 10 p.m., where ABC Studio’s “Castle” resides, and on Tuesday at 9 p.m., where as of Oct. 23, “Happy Endings,” comes in. Ownership of that comedy is split between ABC Studios and Sony Pictures Television. CBS also put new shows in behind the seventh and eighth highest-rated available time slots, "NCIS: Los Angeles" and "Person of Interest."

There will be those that argue the broadcasters should be commended for their agnostic approach to programming. They're letting the best creative get the best time slots, provenance be damned. That's all well and good, but maybe this means the sister studios should take a more targeted approach to serving their siblings’ highest-priority development needs to support their mutual financial interest. There's only so much you can do to anticipate time-slot vacancies ahead of time, but that's not entirely true when you consider, for example, that Fox has been planning a four-comedy block on Tuesdays well in advance.

What might be a more compelling counterargument is that no matter what time slot you get on the fall schedule, debuting in the fall in and of itself is a less coveted launch pad than the less crowded environs of the midseason. Let's see if the shows that get added to the schedule in the months ahead prove the broadcasters and their studios are savvier than this fall makes them appear to be.

In a TV world where a show can be canceled after two episodes, making it to 50,000 is an extraordinary achievement.

"This is SportsCenter," indeed.

Like many of ESPN’s programming, "SportsCenter" is a live telecast, and its content can change at the last second due to a dropped ball or missed field goal. That anything-can-happen feel have made "SportsCenter" must viewing for decades for those who want to know who won what, and where, before going to bed.

The cabler’s signature show reaches the milestone with the 6 p.m. ET telecast Thursday. That’s a lot of player and coaches speak: "Our backs are against the wall," "We’ll give 110%" and "We’ll play like there’s no tomorrow."

Mark Gross, ESPN senior VP and exec producer of "SportsCenter," says the "SportsCenter" remains a work in progress for all 18 hours each day that it is aired across all ESPN networks.

"Viewers have the complete ownership of it," he explains. "There’s not another show we do where the expectations are as high."

Adds anchor Scott Van Pelt: "‘SportsCenter’ connects people to their teams unlike anything else. It’s still the home for sports fans."

When "SportsCenter" began on Sept. 7, 1979, the TV landscape was completely different, of course. ESPN was just a fledgling cabler with a couple of satellite dishes in its Bristol, Conn., backyard, and sports fans usually only got a 4-minute segment of sports highlights on their local newscasts.

Now, in sort of a back-to-the-future trend, there is a discussion to give the shows a more local spin.

After creating a Los Angeles-based broadcast that airs at 8 o’clock in Southern California, Gross says, "We’re working on different way to personalize ‘SportsCenter.’ If a fan wants just Dodgers, Clippers, Angels, Lakers highlights, they ask how can I do that?"

While scores and highlights have been the bread and butter of each telecast, the anchors themselves have often reached celebrity status. During the "Big Show" days of Dan Patrick and Keith Olbermann behind the desk, viewers would tune in not only to find out if the Yankees won, but to catch the playfulness between the two.

Anchors also have a say to the show’s rundown, — the importance of each story, starting with the one to lead the telecast. They don’t always agree with their producers, such as when Tim Tebow taking off his shirt uses about 15 minutes of the show. That’s an exaggeration, but the Tebow coverage has been a bit, um, excessive.

"We’re maybe more vocal than they wish we were," says Van Pelt of the anchors participation. "It’s a collaborative process. The rundown is always in flux. That lineup is in pencil and not pen. Our voice carries weight, as does any voice that is raised and deserves to be (heard). Producers hear out everyone."

Said anchor Sage Steele: "There are ton of disagreements, but it doesn’t get ugly too often."

ESPN won’t do too much to celebrate the big occasion Thursday, but Chris Berman, who has been at the network since the beginning, will do a piece on former anchor Tom Mees, who drowned in 1996.

It's been over a decade since Americans have laid eyes on "Sifl and Olly," a pair of deranged sock puppets that drew a cult following with an MTV series of their own in the late 1990s. While the network brought "Beavis 'n' Butt-head" back to its own channel, "S&O" have been freed up for YouTube, where the Happy Hour channel of top entertainment hub Machinima has revived them for "Sifl & Olly Video Game Reviews." Never mind that these aren't actual video games; the whole point is to watch inspired sock comedy.

There's no shortage of attention lavished on AMC's original series, but the cable network recently made an unusual move on the programming acquisition front that's noteworthy. Last Sunday, AMC began airing the miniseries "Into the West" at 8 p.m. as a lead-in to its original series "Hell On Wheels." If "West" rings a bell, it's because it first ran on TNT in 2005 with a $50 million budget and the backing of executive producer Steven Spielberg.

It's rare to see a network license programming from a rival and reintroduce it given how sensitive cable channels are about diluting their branding. But Tom Halleen, senior vp of programming and scheduling at AMC, believes the conventional programming wisdom was worth challenging when it came to providing a compatible lead-in to fellow Western "Wheels."

"I don’t think viewers will look at it and say, 'Why is the TNT drama 'Into The West' on AMC?" he said. "I don't think we're borrowing another network's brand, it's about the show’s individual brand."

The gambit worked: "Wheels" tripled AMC's average primetime rating, reaching 1.7 million total viewers.

Halleen wouldn't comment on how much it cost AMC to acquire "West." The network is marketing the miniseries, which last aired on TNT in 2009, as an "AMC premiere."

AMC has always had a soft spot for Westerns, having also licensed classic Western "Lonesome Dove" for its air. Before its slate of original series started clicking beginning with "Mad Men," the network scored with its own original 2006 miniseries "Broken Trail," which starred Robert Duvall.

This is the third in a series of three posts. Read Part 2 if you missed it.

It's not as if CBS is going to go gangbusters from September onward. What few new entries are coming to the schedule are largely question marks: "Vegas" and "Jersey Girl" aren't going to work, and "Partners" will squeak by less on the steam of its own charm than its cushy slot on Monday.

"Elementary" is actually the sleeper of the bunch. Unlike "Vegas," where CBS awkwardly cloaks a procedural inside the trappings of a period piece, this Sherlock Holmes reboot is a pure, unabashed procedural with well-cast leads (Johnny Lee Miller, Lucy Liu). Truth be told, it doesn't even matter that "Elementary" is well done; it's in a Thursday 10 p.m. time slot where NBC and ABC will barely have a heartbeat. Look for "Elementary" to be the most-watched new series of the season, comedy or drama.

But CBS won't truly shine overall until midseason, where the network will have a murderers' row of events all scheduled in a matter of weeks--the AFC championship game, Grammys and Super Bowl--that will pretty much guarantee the Eye wins the 18-49 crown in 2012-13.

But what will truly put the network over the top is the promotional platform these events will provide for new programming for the midseason. A lucky new comedy like "Friend Me" and/or "The Ex Men" is going to get a huge lead-in from "Big Bang Theory," which may very well be ready to hit peak performance, or "Two and a Half Men," which is almost definitely going into its last season. Prediction: "Person of Interest" gets bench time as CBS attempts a new two-hour comedy block on Thursday, taking a strangehold of a night where the most ad dollars await the winning network. 

That's not good news for ABC, which has a promising hour scheduled at 8 p.m. in "Last Resort." It's going to need a better time slot if it's really intended to blossom on the schedule. One hour you can already cross off the list of potential relocation slots is Wednesday at 10 p.m., where country-flavored "Nashville" is going to fit like a glove on a night where ABC will be stronger than ever. One exception: new 8:30 p.m. comedy "The Neighbors," which will wash out quick.

Sunday is truly the night where the most suspense is in store for ABC, and not because "666 Park Avenue" is going to scare up any more viewers than "Pan Am" failed to last season. The question mark there is whether "Revenge" will lose or build on the audience "Desperate Housewives" had before clearing out of the Sunday 9 p.m. time slot, or whether it will regret the risky switch from its previous Wednesday  10 p.m. home. Expect "Revenge" to do just well enough to hang on to its "Once Upon A Time" lead-in but "666" will mean Sunday will still provide a hole that will need filling, though ABC has more than a few hours stockpiled to try in the midseason, like another femme-friendly hour, "Red Widow."

That leaves NBC. Wouldn't it be nice if the comeback story could finally unfold. Unfortunately this fall could be just as troubling as the last one. The new comedy block on Wednesday will be obliterated, and "Guys With Kids" will be the season's first cancellation. New dramas "Revolution" and "Chicago Fire" will get blown out in short order. And Friday will prove so inhospitable to returning half-hours "Community" and "Whitney" that they will pray to inherit the "30 Rock" slot once that series finishes out its run beginning in October.

Bleak as it all sounds, there will be some rays of hope. The pairing of "Go On" and "The New Normal" won't exactly be insta-hits but "Normal" in particular will do decently enough that NBC will do anything to ensure survival, like even cutting back "Voice" a half-hour on Monday to give it the best possible lead-in, or maybe even putting it on at 10 p.m. once "Revolution" clocks out. Then there's the midseason, where NBC will start releasing the first of the arsenal it is building that reboot established icons like "Hannibal," which should be followed by "Dracula," "Cleopatra" and "Munsters" redo "Mockingbird Lane." Just you wait: Watch NBC rebuild its brand on the back of revived iconic characters. 

And there you have it. One can't possibly predict everything that's going to happen over the course of an entire season, but dammit, someone has to try... 

It may have been One Direction's performance at the VMAs yesterday that made me realize I'm out of touch. As the band took the stage at Staples Center last night, several thoughts crossed through my head, including:

Who are these people?

I'm older than them?

Why aren't they singing that catchy "Glad You Came" song?

Oh, that's another British boy band?

They're all wearing skinny jeans?

Why did I get such a big popcorn?

One Direction, or "1D" as the tweeny-boppers call the overseas sensation on Twitter, energetically jumped around on stage, singing lyrics without a hint of a Brit accent. Teens in the crowd wearing what amounted to homecoming dresses wailed with delight, and everyone in my seating section -- and I do mean everyone -- sat quietly or whispered to their plus ones: "I don't know the words."

One audience member to my right even said, "I remember Britney with a snake! What is this?!"

Rihanna's opening performance felt lackluster in the arena, 2 Chainz moment on stage had me counting his necklaces rather than listening to his music, and Taylor Swift's performance smelt of my tenth grade diary.

We all remember Britney with a snake. What are the VMAs now?

The kudos fest used to be synonymous with over-the-top performances featuring ridiculous costumes, impressive dance routines and scandalous moments that America would be discussing the next day. We have seen Diana Ross fondle Lil Kim, Britney and Christina swap spit through Madonna, Kanye butt into other people's business, Rose McGowan sport a fishnet, Gaga drip blood, Fiona Apple hate the world, Tommy Lee and Kid Rock fight over Pam, and oh, Michael frickin' Jackson. Even last year's show and broadcast at the Nokia offered fun bits like Beyonce confirming a Blue Ivy bun in the oven while on stage and Gaga speaking in third person while in drag.

The success of the Video Music Awards comes not from doling out Moonmen (though celebs forcing a surprised reaction when they receive the kudo is always an amusing part of the evening for me), and maybe not even from beautiful performances, but rather from its wild, unscripted antics. Yet, I am realizing that those moments are like lightening in a bottle, derived from an amalgamation of explosive personalities, creative zest and the FCC's nightmare of live broadcasts on MTV.

What was last night's show? Safe. Standard. Celebs arrived, did their work on the red carpet and took their seats at the Staples Center. The loudest cheers of the evening came from boy bands whose members may or may not seem interchangeable to anyone over 22 and from a "Twilight: Breaking Dawn Pt 2" sneak peek that left some in the audience heading out for another drink at the bar. Even Lil Wayne donned his Beats by Dr. Dre headphones, zoning out during the broadcast.

If last night is proof of anything, it's that we've entered a strange lull in pop culture. What's "hot" right now is Taylor Swift's vanilla, catchy pop tracks and whether a member of The Wanted is single or not. Lady Gaga's shock value has worn off, Nicki Minaj can only wear so much glitter, and where is Eminem? I mean really, where is Eminem?

Most stars are over-handled by a team hell bent on dodging bad press, so broadcasts like the VMAs feature bored-looking celebs on their best behavior. No publicist wants another "I'ma let you finish, but..." moment on their hands. But where's the fun in that?

Last night's celebs and performers did not take the VMAs as an opportunity to do with the show what iconic folk from the past have -- use it as a vehicle for irony, sensation, or just pointless ridiculousness. The show's producers probably heaved a sigh of relief at the end of the broadcast, having avoided on-air nudity, fights, and anything else that would require a quick cut to another part of the stage.

Yet, perhaps MTV's relief after a show should be a litmus test for how good the VMAs were that year. Viewers don't really care about who won awards -- this is not the Oscars, after all. Those Moonmen are mere formalities, providing a scheduling framework for the insanity. Viewers want what stresses out handlers and MTV: wild, jaw-dropping moments that leave audiences members nudging each other and saying, "Did you see that?!" Last night came up dry, probably to the joy of those working behind-the-scenes. But producers and handlers, if you're feeling complacent and relaxed during the broadcast, if you're high fiving one another for a seamless job well done, if you're garnering praise for doling out a wholesome show that ruffled no feathers, you may be forgetting what the Video Music Awards are really all about.

This is the second part of a series of posts. Read Part 1 if you missed it.

The "Idol" decline in particular is going to be bad news for Fox, which has a eight-year streak winning the 18-49 demo largely on the back of its supernova franchise. Network chief Kevin Reilly already acknowledged at TCA that Fox will likely cede that demo crown to CBS. Making the unusual move of publicly projecting his own loss isn't going to help ease suspicions that he senses a hole opening underneath Fox--and it will be squarely on him to dig his way out coming fresh off a promotion that makes him both chairman of the network and overseer of an unscripted division that didn't report to him up until now. That means if "Idol" doesn't recover and "Factor" doesn't improve, he'll be the only one to answer for that.

Reilly is also making a risky bet by introducing a new two-hour Tuesday comedy block complete with two new half-hours alongside returning hit "New Girl," which may very well scale new heights in its sophomore season but was a ratings "hit" in its freshman year in the loosest sense of the word. Even if "Girl" props up "The Mindy Project" at 9:30 p.m., the 8-9 p.m. combo of "Raising Hope" and "Ben and Kate" could prove wobbly enough to make Fox regret shipping "Glee" off to Thursday, where the once buzzworthy series is transitioning to a new split-city narrative format. "Goodwin Games" might want to root for "Mindy's" demise just so it has the best possible chance for success.

Elsewhere on Fox's fall sked, it's hard to see where there's any growth opportunities. On the drama side, "Fringe" is almost done, "Bones" is solid but not getting younger, and it's hard to see "Touch" popping on Friday after a ho-hum first season. Look for "Mindy" will be Fox's only fall survivor especially when you take into account drama "The Mob Doctor," which will get crushed instantly in the same brutal time period that walloped "Lone Star" two years ago. Add to that a Monday that will be challenging in the fall to say the least, and you do have the makings of a schedule that could see some serious softening.

Thankfully, there's some good pre-season buzz on midseason drama "The Following," which is going to need to really pop. Regardless, perhaps the biggest unsaid question of the fall is not whether Fox is going to fall--even Reilly sees that coming--but just how far.

Still, even the worst case scenario probably wouldn't put Fox in danger of slipping so far as to lose second place to ABC or NBC. In truth primetime can really be separated into two separate races: the battle for the crown and the battle to stay out of last place. Nevertheless, if the story of the 2012-13 season can be reduced to one sentence, the death of the unscripted competition format may very well end up taking a backseat to the peak of CBS, which seems to not only get stronger with every passing season but spreading the wealth of that strength across its schedule like no other network--certainly not Fox, which is about to find what happens when strength comes from too many eggs in one basket.

More on the other networks' fortunes in Part 3 of this blog post series coming tomorrow.

 

Primetime prognostication is not for the faint of heart. Picking which of the dozens of new TV shows will succeed, let alone how returning series will fare, is about as easy as filling out March Madness brackets. But someone's got to do it, so here I am with a mix of number-crunching, creative assessment and my trusty gut.

There's no possible way to get everything right, as I discovered last year when for every pick that worked (here's looking at you, "Once Upon A Time" and "Revenge") there were some that didn't (forget "Unforgettable"). There's so much to say about the coming season that this blog post is broken up into three parts, the next two coming Thursday and Friday.

With Nostradamus-like powers, I see into a future where one network will hit its highest highs yet. Another will fall, though not as far as two others, which will put some points on the board, yet not enough to win.

But first let's talk about the beginning of the end for an entire sub-genre.

The 2012-13 season will be remembered as the Reality-TV Recession, specifically the competition series that have long ruled primetime. That shouldn't be a surprise to anyone who saw how poorly the broadcasters fared during the unscripted-heavy summer, when the broadcast networks failed to launch any viable new entries to the genre. Viewers are feeling serious fatigue given too many of these series are too long in the tooth or too similar to each other.

The focus right out of the gate will be on the rival singing contests, Fox's "The X Factor" and NBC's "The Voice" given the latter's move to fall will put a spotlight on their competition. "Factor" will actually probably launch strong given the curiosity over new judge Britney Spears, but this has the makings of a casting stunt that will fade fast. In all her years in the public eye, Spears has never demonstrated much of a personality beyond that of two-dimensional pop icon,  which means she doesn't have the goods to be compelling week in and week out.

For "Voice," it's hard to see how there's more growth in such a cluttered unscripted climate, and double-pumping cycles of the series will only exhaust it earlier than need be. Neither series is going to outright tank, but both will finish slightly below previous seasons. That may hurt NBC harder in the ratings department, but Fox will feel a fiscal crunch given the expense of shelling out for boldface-named judges and Simon Cowell, neither of which will be worth the investment.

The reality rout really started to take on momentum before the summer, when "American Idol" made an alarmingly precipitous decline that began back in January. There's no reason to believe "Idol" isn't going to continue to drop just as dramatically this coming midseason given new judge Mariah Carey and the other names being bandied about aren't going to spark a revival after 10 years. Fox might like us to think that the revolving door at the judges' table is now part of the fun for these shows given the parlor game that comes with guessing who is or isn't in negotiations. But when the dust clears, shows like "Idol" have to stand on their own two wobbly feet.

A big decline may also be in store for ABC's "Dancing With the Stars," which is relying on its upcoming all-stars edition to stave off a decline that's been coming a mile away. The Alphabet could be forced to cut back the franchise to one cycle per year. CBS' "Survivor" could do well to do same, to minimize its own wear and tear.

All in all, we're going to see a lot of "reality is dead" articles and the kind of soul-searching in unscripted development that is way overdue. And the hand-wringing isn't without just case: the biggest unscripted shows take up big chunks of the schedule: 2-3 hours per week, too much of which is bloated pomp that is part of the problem as well. What's worse is that performing weakly doesn't just hurt those shows themselves, but as lead-ins to other content, they have a destabilizing force that can be felt across the entire schedule.

These shows aren't going to leave the air this season. Even in decline they still have some value. But their airtime will be cut back and they'll lose their place as the cornerstone of their respective schedules. Competition shows will take a well-deserved nap for a season or two before one smart network remembers all programming is cyclical, and the genre gets revived all over again. See you in 2015.

The "Idol" decline is going to be particularly bad news for Fox. Read Part 2 for how the network will fare this coming season.

 

Chalk up another unpredictable career move for Conan O'Brien. A few years after his controversial departure from NBC and his Internet-fueled resurgence at TBS, he's launching another show online where he seems to be experimenting with longer-form, deeper interviews. "Serious Jibber-Jabber with Conan O'Brien" is expected to launch online-only sometime this month, according to the teaser issued Friday by his website, TeamCoco.com, and AT&T is aboard as a sponsor.

The teaser is short on specifics, i.e. guests, but it will be interesting to see whether O'Brien is going to just extend his chats with the celebrity guests who only get a handful of minutes on his TV couch, or perhaps go for another whole class of newsmakers, like, politicians. O'Brien surely has the chops to handle weightier work, and as Ryan Seacrest is demonstrating these days via his new deal with NBCUniversal, a host can stretch to more substantive fare without giving up his relatively more superficial day job.

So here's a prediction: Watch O'Brien do his thing online for a time until he's ready to get himself a show worthy of putting on CNN, which seems to be entering an experimental phase these days in its weekend lineup with hires like Anthony Bourdain and Morgan Spurlock shaking up a traditional sense of what constitutes 24-hour news programming. Giving O'Brien a side gig on CNN would bring some buzz to that network while giving him another reason to stick around at fellow Time Warner subsidiary TBS as well.