It’s hard to imagine it, but iTunes, when it launched, was a major gamble by Apple. Digital purchases were in their infancy and there was hardly a guarantee the general public would embrace them.  

How far we’ve come.

A new survey from GigaOM Pro predicts the online market for digital goods will grow from $16.7 billion last year to $36 billion by 2014.

Music and video games have led the market so far, via iTunes and Activision’s cash cow “World of Warcraft.” These days, social network games (such as FarmVille) are beginning to contribute notably to the bottom line as well, but Paul Zagaeski, author of the report, says the market is just getting started – and is primed for significant growth.

“Payment models will continue to evolve and even established players in digital goods will need to continue adapt,” he says. “Early success stories … are only the beginning, as new, socially-enabled digital markets continue to grow in importance.”

The big money potential continues to underscore why Apple and the network content providers haven’t yet reached a deal for programming on the iPad. The music industry isn’t completely dependent on Apple, but it’s close. Video programmers want to have some leverage if that becomes the case for that industry as well. 

DirecTV has always been eager to jump on, if not steer, the 3D bandwagon. Now the company’s plans are firming up.  

The satellite TV provider will launch its trio of previously announced 3D channels in June. ESPN 3D, a movies-on-demand channel and a 24/7 pay per view channel will provide initial coverage. (Verizon, you might recall, has only committed to adding 3D by this holiday.)

That means that some of the FIFA World Cup will be televised in 3D – 25 games, to be precise, which could further goose interest in the sets. Other sporting events that ESPN will carry in 3D include the X Games 16, 2010 college football ACC Championship, 2011 BCS National Championship game, college basketball and NBA games in 2011. 

We’re just about a week away from the launch of the iPad, but analysts are getting more and more bullish about the device.  

BMO Capital’s Keith Bachman has ratcheted up his estimates for the number of iPads the company will sell in the months to come. Bachman is raising his fiscal 2011 forecast from 5.5 million to 7.2 million – a 30 percent upgrade – based on what he sees as continuous growth in the eReader and netbooks fields.

If the number pans out (and, it’s worth noting, Bachman had been the analyst with the most conservative numbers until recently), that should strike fear into the hearts of Amazon, Barnes & Noble and more.

It points to another potential area of dominance by Apple – and further illustrates why content providers are proving to be quite hesitant about jumping on board the iPad bandwagon. Pre-launch and early-launch are when they have the most bargaining power for royalties and flexibility.

The real test of all this, of course, will come after the Apple faithful grab their iPads – and the rest of the world has a chance to get one. Will the device be appealing enough to draw them in?

As social media sites grow and Hollywood gets a better handle on how to utilize them, the number of viral campaigns for new and returning films and movies is on the rise. Some of what’s out there is really clever stuff. Some is best left ignored.  

I’ve been curious for a while about how effective these campaigns are at raising awareness, so when the folks at “Breaking Bad” reached out to talk viral campaigns, I jumped.

The show had a couple of methods to promote the AMC show’s third season, which premiered on March 21^st, a series of YouTube clips and a microsite revolving around the character Saul Goodman (played by Bob Odenkirk). They were funny stuff – but did they draw an audience?

Apparently so. The video clip garnered 2M impressions across the web, and more than 100k engaged video views on YouTube. The microsite itself attracted between 50,000 and 100,000 unique visitors (admittedly a wide range).

How did that affect ratings for the show? Well, it’s kind of an apples to oranges comparison, since “Breaking Bad” has been gathering steam and buzz since its premiere – but it’s worth noting that the third season premiere was the series’ highest rated episode. 

While DirecTV and Comcast have been pretty vocal about their launch plans for 3D programming, Verizon hasn’t had much to say about what its FiOS customers can expect.  

The company broke its vow of silence today, confirming that it would offer 3D this year, by the holidays at latest, when it expects 3D penetration to begin to rise.

The telecom company says its network can easily handle the 3D signal and it plans to offer the “broadest range of 3D possible to the market”. Given that there are only a handful of channels that are confirmed to offer 3D programming, that’s not going to be too difficult.

The bigger question, though - and one Verizon hasn’t answered – is what (if anything) additional charges will subscribers who want to access this sort of content face?

Pre-orders for Apple’s iPad have reportedly been strong and the initial ennui over the system seems to be drying up as it gears up for its April 3 launch – but will that launch be marred by a lack of exclusive content?  

The Wall Street Journal reports that Apple is still trying to lock down deal with content providers, including TV programmers and newspaper publishers, despite the imminent launch of the system. Royalty negotiations look to be the sticking point – as these industries attempt to avoid being put in the same position as the music industry, which lost virtually all of its negotiating power with Apple after the iPod became a must-have item.

Similarly, the companies are looking to protect their current revenue sources, as Apple looks to lower the price of TV programming in the iTunes store.

Apple, as you might expect, won’t comment on the report.

Game companies, though, seem solidly on board, which might increase whispers that the iPad is Apple’s first true gaming device. Flurry Analytics notes that 44 percent of the applications being tested on the iPad right now are games. 

Want one of Panasonic’s 3D HD TVs? Get in line and get comfortable. The company says it has sold out of the sets in their first week, forcing the company to take back-orders from retailers.
 

That’s good news anyway you slice it, but it does raise a few additional questions – like how many 3D sets did Panasonic ship inititally? If it was only a few hundred, the feat becomes a bit less impressive. And when are new sets going to hit stores? (Panasonic didn't respond immediately to questions.) 

Still, it shows the industry’s marketing push for 3D in the home is starting to pay off – and it shows that the hand-wringing from the media (including, admittedly, this blog) about the price of the sets and whether consumers would want to wear the required glasses in their home might be overstated.

It’s a first step – and an important one. Converting the early adopters can create evangelists. And those evangelists will further convince the mainstream audience that 3D is something they want.

And if you’re Panasonic, that also means you could see your TV business begin to turn around quicker than expected. 

It’s no secret Netflix is betting big on its streaming service. The company began by limiting streaming to the PC, then expanded into consoles and dedicated set-top boxes and, in January, added Internet-enabled TVs to the mix. Today, it’s adding cell phones.
 

Microsoft, at MIX10, announced that users with Windows Phone 7 Series phones will be able to stream Netflix films directly to their phones. The service is able to use both 3G and Wifi. (Like other streaming apps, you’ll need to be a Netflix subscriber to see the movies.)

The companies gave a demo of the technology today and it’s a very slick interface that’s showing a lot of potential. In addition to your queue and new releases, the app uses Netflix’s recommendation engine to suggest films you’ll enjoy.

The question, right now, is whether the app will release this winter when Windows Phone 7 devices hit the market. For that, we’re going to have to wait and see.

While Redbox hasn’t exactly endeared itself to the studios, it has quickly become one of the most powerful distribution systems for film rentals. (Just ask Blockbuster.) To date, though, consumers who wanted to watch high definition movies didn’t have much use for the service.  

That may change soon, as the CEO of Coinstar (which owns Redbox) says Blu-ray discs will be available in the majority of the kiosks by the middle of the year. Prices will be higher for Blu-ray rentals, though Paul Davis didn’t mention any pricing in the announcement, which came at the recent Wedbush Securities conference in New York.

Davis expects about 15 percent of Redbox’s current customers to show interest in Blu-ray - a number that will likely escalate as Blu-Ray penetration expands. 

While there was a lot of grumbling when Apple finally unveiled the iPad and its features, the system is still one of the surest bets of the year to be a hit. If you’d prefer to avoid the long lines at your local Apple store, today’s the day to take care of that.

Apple has begun accepting online and in-store preorders for the iPad, with delivery scheduled for April 3. The device will go on sale in stores that day as well. Pricing will start at $499 and run as high as $829.

Remember, the first systems that will ship are only WiFi enabled. You won’t be able to access or subscribe to 3G networks with them. If you want one of the 3G systems, you won’t get that until late April.

Need to catch up on the iPad? Check out our earlier coverage for a more complete picture of the system.