EA's bid for Take-Two: Get ready for industry consolidation

I'll have much more to say on EA's attempt to buy Take-Two tomorrow as I do more reporting, but for all the details as we know them now, be sure to read my story in tomorrow's Daily Variety.

As a first reaction, though, I think the proof is now incontrovertible that the name of the game in the videogame biz is consolidation. With a 50% growth rate last year, big media getting more and more involved, and franchises being key, the business is about to go through rapid changes. Basically, we can expect any small publisher to either get bought or die in the next year or two, I'd say.

The acquirers will be EA (clearly hungry to buy franchises and development studios), ActivisionBlizzard, and big media congloms that are getting interested in videogames -- companies like Disney, Warner Bros. and MTV.

So, outside of the Japanese companies and first parties, let's take a look at who else is left and what's their likely fate:

-Take-Two: Obviously a tasty acquisition target, since it's relatively inexpensive but has an ultra-valuable property in "Grand Theft Auto" and a few other decent ones, like its sports line and "Bioshock."

-THQ: Its strength is licenses, but the Nickelodeon titles did poorly last year and it's likely to lose the Pixar license after making its last game in 2011 (it already lost 2010's "Toy Story 3" to Disney Interactive). It's struggling to build some valuable internal franchises, but doesn't have a lot. As such, anyone who wants to get their hands on its internal development studios and name might be able to buy THQ at not too big a premium over its trading price, since future prospects don't look all that bright currently.

-Ubisoft: Doing pretty well and it's protected by tough European anti-trust laws. Probably just a bit too expensive and too much of a burden for anyone to buy. Wouldn't be surprised to see it be the smallest major publisher left standing when the current acquisition wave is done.

-Eidos/Sci: There has been a lot of takeover talk and, like Take-Two, it has one pretty well known property in "Tomb Raider." Despite recent setbacks, somebody will succeed in taking over Eidos, I presume. Could even be Warner Bros., which already owns 10%.

-LucasArts: Privately held and would lose most of its value if separated from "Star Wars" owner LucasFilm. It's not going anywhere.

-Midway: It's been struggling big time for the past few years. It has "Mortal Kombat" and... ummmm.... My guess is new chairwoman Shari Redstone is looking to sell. But will anyone want this underperforming company?

-Atari: Nice to buy for the name, but that's about all you'd get. Not sure why anybody would bother at this point. A more likely fate is something like Acclaim, where a private investor interested in the biz will buy the Atari name to use for a new business plan.

-Codemasters: Goldman Sachs recently invested $99 million in this small British company, which isn't too well known outside of Europe. Probably too soon for private equity investors to cash out, plus it doesn't have any appealing franchises or an appealing brand name for American publishers, I'd guess.