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May
19
Electronic Arts can't do anything right in the past week

Eastock With its stock down 11% in four days, it's safe to say investors aren't too happy with what they've been seeing at EA in the past week.

After Tuesday's earnings, the combination of red ink despite 19% revenue growth for the fiscal year; soft earnings projections for the next fiscal year despite predicted revenue growth of at least 33%; and the announcement that there will be no more quarterly guidance soured investors a bit.

As Cowen & Co. analyst Doug Creutz wrote in a note, according to MarketWatch, "We remain concerned that EA's guidance reflects continued pressure on margins, implying slow progress in aligning the company's cost structure."

In the long run, I find it hard to believe how dropping quarterly earnings will impact investors much. After all there are always analysts to provide estimates for quarterly performance. And EA has a good argument that the uncertainty of release dates in the videogame biz makes the whole process a bit pointless.

Of course, it's hard to separate out how much of the stock drop is investors demanding more certainty and how much is just that they want to see more profit in the past and future. But neither issue seems to be pleasing them much.

Today's news that EA is extending its hostile bid for Take-Two yet again didn't do much to inspire Wall Street, as the stock fell another 2%. Given that Take-Two stock is actually trading higher than EA's $25.74 per share bid, it's no surprise only 8% of shareholders have signed up for the tender offer. EA staying in this race is a bit like Hillary Clinton staying in it -- only a complete implosion by the opposition could result in a victory.

However, it may just be a side show at this point. Take-Two chairman Strauss Zelnick confirmed today that his company has finally begun "formal discussions" with "interested parties," and I can report with certainty that EA is one of those parties. Whether the buyer is EA, a traditional media conglomerate or somebody else, there's a good chance that Take-Two Interactive won't live to see 2009.

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Variety video games reporter and reviews editor Ben Fritz tracks the business of games and their intersection with Hollywood. Tips, feedbacks, hate mail to ben-dot-fritz-at-variety.com


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