Does the lack of a "GTA IV" sales boost for 360 and PS3 mean the twilight of the next-gen?

Over at GigaOM, a tech news site mostly dedicated to Internet stuff, Wagner James Au argues that "the era of next-gen gaming as a driving force is over." His evidence is that "Grand Theft Auto IV" hasn't boosted sales of the Xbox 360 and Playstation 3, as most industry observers expected.

I'm already on the record as being shocked that the PS3 and 360 got no visible boost from the debut of that monster game, indicating that most of the people buying "GTA IV" already have their system to play it on. That's not great news for Sony or Microsoft.

Nintendo's Wii, meanwhile, maintained its huge lead over both systems in April and May even though "GTA IV," which isn't available for the Wii, was the best selling game both months.

But I think Au is getting ahead of himself by saying that we can conclude neither hardware system has any life left in it sales-wise. "If Grand Theft Auto can’t move more machines, nothing can," he asserts. But "GTA IV" is a bit of an odd animal, since it came out in April, not anywhere close to the holidays, and it wasn't a single system exclusive. So there could still be plenty of people who own a 360 waiting to buy a PS3 and vice-versa.

To make any really definitive claims, I think we have to wait until the end of the year. That's when we'll have seen huge PS3 exclusive "Metal Gear Solid 4," huge 360 exclusive "Gears of War 2," and the holidays. If none of those 3 things, along with "GTA IV," can move hardware sales, then we can probably say that the two systems are about tapped out, at least at their current prices. And then we'll have to start asking some really serious questions about the wisdom of high powered, high priced game systems.

By the by, Au also argues that "['GTA IV's'] predecessor, 2004’s GTA: San Andreas, sold 21.5 million copies.  With GTA IV sales already plummeting, the franchise’s latest installment from Take-Two Interactive will be lucky to move 12-14 million copies total." That's really speculative. Given that it came out in April, I think we can reasonably expect that sales would fall dramatically after the first 9 million people get their hands on it right away. But there could easily be a huge sales boost around the holidays and continued steady sales for a few years as the price of the 360 and PS3 drop and the audience potentially widens. The game could still sell incredibly well. And even if it doesn't quite match "San Andreas'" 21.5 million units, that's understandable since the PS2 was more mature and had a bigger install base when that game came out.

And this statement, ultimately, is way over the top: "In other words, the days when so-called “next-gen” gaming reigned supreme are coming to end — instead, the industry’s future will be shaped by games like 'Rock Band.'" Sure, new kinds of games that appeal to broader audiences are an increasingly important part of the market. But "GTA IV," even if it doesn't quite match "San Andreas," will still be hugely profitable (hell, it grossed over $500 million in its first week). As was "Call of Duty 4," as are franchises like "Halo" and "Metal Gear Solid" and "Gears of War." We'll be seeing games like that for as long as videogaming exists, I predict. But as the industry grows and expands, a big chunk of that growth will be taken up by the new kinds of games and new kinds of systems. That's all.