Guitar Hero: World Tour vs. Guitar Hero III first week sales

No, we don't have any sales figures yet, but I think a comparison of Activision's boasting about both games is quite instructive.

The week after launching "Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock" last year, Activision put out a press release with this lede:

Activision, Inc. (NASDAQ:ATVI) announced today that consumer sell through for Guitar Hero(R) III: Legends of Rock(TM) exceeded $115 million within seven days of the game's North American release, making it the largest single product launch in the company's history.

It's more than a week since "Guitar Hero: World Tour" launched and there hasn't been any press release. Here's what Activision publishing president Michael Griffith said on yesterday's earnings call:

The band kit launch quantities are virtually sold out across the channel and even with our manufacturers at full capacity and a continuous flow of supply throughout the quarter, we are likely to not be able to keep up with demand for the band kits this holiday.

Additionally, our retail checks indicate that the Guitar Hero World Tour band kit is outselling its only competitor by a very wide margin. As expected, early consumers are disproportionately interested in the band kit as a result of the drum controller innovation and the addition of the microphone. Our retail and consumer programs focused on the guitar bundle and the standalone software are weighted to the Thanksgiving weekend and holiday gift-giving seasons. The mass market oriented price point for these SKUs and the fact that they can be enjoyed with both our latest guitar controller as well as previously released guitars should make them sought after gifts this holiday.

Translation: the full band kit is selling decently, better than "Rock Band 2" at least (though one would expect that the week it launches). The stand alone game and guitar combo? They're not starting off as hot.

If "World Tour" had beat "Guitar Hero III's" $115 million launch by any significant margin, which shouldn't have been too tough given that the full band kit costs nearly twice as much, it's reasonable to assume that Activision would put out a similarly exuberant press release, or at least boasted about the number somewhat in its earnings call. Since it didn't, I think we can assume this wasn't quite the boffo launch Activision was hoping for.

The fact that it may not be able to keep up with demand doesn't actually tell us how well the game is selling, since that depends entirely on the production capacity. Furthermore, every videogame store I've seen in the past week has had at least some copies of the full band kit in stock. "Virtually sold out" doesn't seem to mean the same thing for "Guitar Hero: World Tour" as it does for the Wii. I can't remember the last time I saw one of Nintendo's consoles sitting on a shelf.

Of course, Griffith is probably right that the more casual market that has loved "Guitar Hero" so much is  more likely to shop around the holidays and be drawn to the less expensive guitar or game-only versions. But with the economy worsening, will people spend $100 for a videogame, or even $60 for sequel mere months after they bought the last "Guitar Hero?" And will the more hardcore audience really buy into the full band kit when "Rock Band 2" is at least as good, if not better?

I doubt "World Tour" will be a flop, but it is certainly launching into a tough market for several reasons. Its fate will be a test of everything from the impact of the economy on videogame sales to mass market consumers' interest in Activision's annual (or even more frequent) sequel strategy to whether "Rock Band" and "Guitar Hero" can healthily co-exist as remarkably similar games.

So far, Activision doesn't seem to have too much to brag about.