Game Critics Awards nominations are out. Do they matter?

More than you might think, actually.

Ben Schachter, video game analyst for Broadpoint-AmTech, has put out a study of what the two key awards – best console game and best of show – can do to help a title’s sales. With very few exceptions, that seal of approval translates into over 1 million copies sold when a game hits retail.

The only times the awards haven’t put a game over the 1 million mark since 1998 were: last year’s “Little Big Planet” and 2000’s “Jet Grind Radio” (for best console game) and 2000’s “Black & White” and 1999’s “Freelancer” in the game of show category.

Other categories, notes Schachter, tend to bring out the enthusiast in judges, which doesn’t always line up with consumer interests. He’s right: innovative gameplay often gets the nod, if only because judges have seen so many repetitious titles throughout their careers that something fresh is almost always appealing.

So what games can we expect to be hits this holiday? The winners won’t be announced until next week, but the full list of nominations is below.

It’s worth noting one thing, though. While the Game Critics Awards don’t always align with the winners of major gaming sites, there’s usually some parity. This year, though, there will be a big divide, as “Scribblenauts” – a Nintendo DS title that has won “Best of Show” awards from Gamespot, IGN and GameSpy – is notably absent from the Best of Show category here.

Best of Show
- Brutal Legend (Double Fine Productions/EAP for PS3, Xbox 360)
- Mass Effect 2 (BioWare/Electronic Arts for Xbox 360, PC)
- Modern Warfare 2 (Infinity Ward/Activision for PS3, Xbox 360, PC)
- Splinter Cell Conviction (Ubisoft Montreal/Ubisoft for Xbox 360)
- Uncharted 2: Among Thieves (Naughty Dog/SCEA for PS3)

Best Original Game
- Alan Wake (Remedy/MGS for Xbox 360)
- Bayonetta (Platinum Games/Sega for PS3, Xbox 360)
- Brutal Legend (Double Fine Productions/EAP for PS3, Xbox 360)
- Heavy Rain (Quantic Dream/SCEE for PS3)
- Scribblenauts (5TH Cell/WBIE for Nintendo DS)

Best Console Game
- Brutal Legend (Double Fine Productions/EAP for PS3, Xbox 360)
- God of War 3 (Sony Santa Monica/SCEA for PS3)
- Mass Effect 2 (BioWare/Electronic Arts for Xbox 360)
- Modern Warfare 2 (Infinity Ward/Activision for PS3, Xbox 360)
- Uncharted 2: Among Thieves (Naughty Dog/SCEA for PS3) 

Best Handheld Game
- Gran Turismo (Polyphony Digital/SCEJ for PSP)
- LittleBigPlanet (SCE Studio Cambridge/Media Molecule/SCEE for PSP)
- Mario and Luigi: Bowser's Inside Story (Alphadream/Nintendo for Nintendo DS)
- Scribblenauts (5TH Cell/WBIE for Nintendo DS)
- The Legend of Zelda: Spirit Tracks (Nintendo for Nintendo DS)

Best PC Game
- DC Universe Online (Sony Online Austin/SOE)
- Dragon Age: Origins (BioWare/EA)
- Left 4 Dead 2 (Valve/EAP)
- Star Wars: The Old Republic (BioWare Austin/LucasArts)
- Supreme Commander 2 (Gas Powered Games/Square Enix)

Best Hardware
- DJ Hero Controller(Freestyle Games/Red Octane/Activision)
- "Project Natal" (Microsoft)
- PSP Go (Sony Computer Entertainment)
- Tony Hawk Ride Skateboard (Robomodo/Activision)
- Wii MotionPlus (Nintendo)

Best Action Game
- BioShock 2 (2K Marin/2K Games for PS3, Xbox 360, PC)
- Halo 3 ODST (Bungie/MGS for Xbox 360)
- Left 4 Dead 2(Valve/EAP for Xbox 360, PC)
- Modern Warfare 2 (Infinity Ward/Activision for PS3, Xbox 360, PC)
- Singularity (Raven/Activision for PS3, Xbox 360, PC)

Best Action/Adventure Game
- Bayonetta (Platinum Games/Sega for PS3, Xbox 360)
- Brutal Legend (Double Fine Productions/EAP for PS3, Xbox 360)
- God of War 3 (Sony Santa Monica/SCEA for PS3)
- Splinter Cell Conviction (Ubisoft Montreal/Ubisoft for Xbox 360)
- Uncharted 2: Among Thieves (Naughty Dog/SCEA for PS3)

Best Role Playing Game
- Alpha Protocol (Obsidian/Sega for PS3, Xbox 360, PC)
- Dragon Age: Origins (BioWare/EA for PS3, Xbox 360, PC)
- Mario & Luigi: Bowser's Inside Story (Alphadream/Nintendo for Nintendo DS)
- Mass Effect 2 (BioWare/EA for Xbox 360, PC)
- Star Wars: The Old Republic (BioWare Austin/LucasArts for PC)

Best Racing Game
- Blur (Bizzare Creations/Activision for PlayStation 3, Xbox 360, PC)
- Forza Motorsport 3 (Turn 10/MGS for Xbox 360)
- ModNation Racers (United Front/SCEA for PS3)
- Need for Speed Shift (Slightly Mad/EA Games for PS3, Xbox 360, PC)
- Split/Second (Black Rock/Disney Interactive for PS3, Xbox 360, PC)

Best Fighting Game
- Marvel vs. Capcom 2: New Age of Heroes (Foundation 9/Capcom for PS3, Xbox 360)
- Soul Calibur: Broken Destiny (Project Soul/Namco-Bandai Games for PSP)
- Tatsunoko vs. Capcom: Ultimate All Stars (Eighting/Capcom for Wii)
- Tekken 6 (Namco Bandai for PS3, Xbox 360)
- The King of Fighters XII (SNK Playmore for PS3, Xbox 360)

Best Sports Game
- Fight Night Round 4 (EA Canada/EA Sports for PS3, Xbox 360)
- Madden NFL 10 (EA Tiburon/EA Sports for PS3, Xbox 360, Wii)
- NHL 10 (EA Canada/EA Sports for PS3, Xbox 360)
- Tiger Woods PGA Tour 10 (EA Tiburon/EA Sports for Wii)
- Tony Hawk Ride (Robomodo/Activision for PS3, Xbox 360, Wii)

Best Strategy Game
- League of Legends: Clash of Fates (Riot Games for PC)
- Order of War (Wargaming.net/Square Enix for PC)
- R.U.S.E. (Eugen Systems/Ubisoft for PS3, Xbox 360, PC)
- Supreme Commander 2 (Gas Powered Games/Square Enix for Xbox 360, PC)

Best Social/Casual Game
- DJ Hero (Freestyle/Red Octane/Activision for PS3, Xbox 360, Wii)
- Guitar Hero 5 (Neversoft/Red Octane/Activision for All Systems)
- Scribblenauts (5TH Cell/WBIE for Nintendo DS)
- The Beatles Rock Band (Harmonix/MTV Games/EAP for PS3, Xbox 360, Wii)
- Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo for Wii)

Best Online Multiplayer Game
- Halo 3 ODST (Bungie/MGS for Xbox 360)
- Left 4 Dead 2 (Valve/EAP for Xbox 360, PC)
- MAG (Zipper Interactive/SCEA for PS3)
- Star Wars: The Old Republic (BioWare Austin/LucasArts for PC)
- Uncharted 2: Among Thieves (Naughty Dog/SCEA for PS3)