The stream of bad news from the videogame biz is over. Mostly, anyway. Activision Blizzard slightly beat its guidance last quarter, which in the current economic environment (hi EA and THQ) counts as a big win. Hell, not laying anyone off counts as a win these days.
Outlook for 2009 wasn't so hot, however, which sent Activision shares down 4% after-hours.
This morning I spoke to Activision Blizzard CEO Bobby Kotick about why his company is performing during the recession and hasn't had to announce big layoffs. He also had some very
interesting things to say about some of the challenges "Guitar Hero: World Tour" faced this year, why he thinks they can do even better in
2009, and what two games he thinks will surprise us all. But first, the numbers...
I usually don't like to use non-GAAP accounting (meaning the company can exclude certain costs), but given all the complications of the recent Activision-Vivendi merger, ActiBlizzard has a very fair case to make. And on that basis, Activision Blizzard made $2.3 billion last quarter, slightly ahead of its $2.2 billion guidance, and made a profit of $429 million, or 31 cents per share, again a bit ahead of its guidance of 29 cents per share. (On a GAAP basis, it met revenue guidance and slightly missed its net loss guidance)
For the full year, revenue was $5 billion (assuming Activision and Vivendi Games were combined all year), ahead of the most recent guidance of $4.9 billion and well ahead of the initial estimate executives made when the merger was announced in late 2007 of $4.3 billion."
There's widespread belief amongst business types that Activision Blizzard tends to underestimate its guidance so that it can beat its numbers, but during a recession, exceeding even conservative figures is no small feat.
Nonetheless, investors believe them enough that they're concerned about 2009 guidance. The company is expecting to make $4.7 billion, down from this year -- although it says a full $400 million of that is due to currency fluctuations -- and earnings per share of 61 cents. As Reuters reported, analysts were estimating 2009 revenue of $5.17 billion and EPS of 67 cents. That seems to be what's driving ActiBlizzard shares down a bit.
No surprise that last quarter's performance was driven by Activision Blizzard's three biggest franchises: "Call of Duty," "World of Warcraft" and "Guitar Hero" (although the new "Guitar Hero: World Tour" hasn't sold as well as 2007's "Guitar Hero III"). The company's other games, like "Quantum of Solace" and "Madagascar 2," were definitely not as hot.
And here's what Bobby Kotick had to say:
Ben Fritz: Your numbers were obviously quite strong. So what kind of impact did you see from the recession on your business?
Bobby Kotick: We didn't see much. By every number we had our best year ever. We experienced growth in excess of the market for the fifteenth year. By all measures we had a really great year.
Going into 2009, we're seeing revenue and earnings growth and margin expansion on a constant currency basis. We are taking a conservative view because there's so much economic uncertainty. But our product slate is better than last year. There's a bigger install base of hardware. Our expectation is that the hardware companies, at least a couple of them, are probably going to bring down pricing a bit.
It's a very competitive landscape. One thing that has surprised me is Disney, Time Warner and Viacom are much more committed to this category. When you look at who’s committing a lot of capital and has the potential to be a great success, those are the guys who are in a great position.
BF: It certainly seems like they're rising, whereas your traditional competitors like EA are retrenching and restructuring.
BK: It's a tough thing when you have to try to change the DNA of your culture. That takes a long time.
We did a restructuring when merged the two companies and we did it relatively quickly. That's behind us. That's great because it has the potential to distract you from operating with your best foot forward.
Nintendo has stepped it up and they have a great pipeline. Sony, from what I’m told, has 100 new products in production. Microsoft has more "Halo" and some other great products. I think Disney has done a really great job looking at this business. Viacom, you cant argue with the success of "Rock Band."
BF: Other game companies have been saying that in this economy, sales are even more concentrated in the top sellers. How do you feel about your first Bond game, "Quantum of Solace," and your last DreamWorks game, "Magagascar 2?"
BK: It’s tougher because I don’t think that’s what’s capturing the interest of consumers as much as the titles in the top 10. Licensed IP is much more difficult than it has ever been. In the case of Bond, we knew going in we had a very tight time schedule from the time we signed the deal to the next movie. We had to put a team on a plane the month after we signed to go to London and work on the set before took it down. Tight timetable.
The benefit now is the new game can release when it's ready [note: Its in development at Bizarre and is expected in 2010]. We put a lot of energy and effort into making the next game something really extraordinary.
BF: Do you want Bond to be an annualized franchise? And do you think you'll stick with DreamWorks after your deal ends in 2010?
BK: Remember we’re a company where 90% of our operating profit comes from owned IP. That's the opposite of most competitors. We're certainly willing to work with proven licensed IP so long as the licensor is delivering on their end -- Delivering assets and a franchise that has enough appeal to be worth using our talented development staff. We'll have to wait and see what future opportunities will be.
BF: Speaking of licenses and annualized franchises, how are you feeling about your Tony Hawk games going into this year [note: 2007's Tony Hawk games performed poorly financially and critically and there was no sequel last year]
BK: Tony Hawk is a great example where we took a year off. We didn’t infuse the last product with the level of innovation needed. So we took a year off and figured out how to capitalize on new features of hardware. What you’ll see is something very different than what anybody has done in any products.
I'll tell you, the products I think are going to stand out far beyond expectation are "DJ Hero" and "Tony Hawk." The products themselves are two of the best we have ever created. There will be a level of popular appeal I don’t think we've seen in any previous products.
BF: How did you feel about this most recent "Guitar Hero?" It did well, but not as well as "Guitar Hero III."
BK: We were not big believers in the band product as being a true mass market opportunity. The guitar [only version of "World Tour] did really well compared to the band products.
But there was a lot more demand than we could supply to in last calendar year. We underestimated what band product demand would be. We still outsold "Rock Band." We have corrected the inventory situation. "World Tour" is now in stock. We really grossly underestimated demand for the Wii version more than anything else."
BF: That's interesting, since I noticed that Wii was your best SKU for "World Tour."
BK: We're really well aligned with the Wii market, but we could have done a better job in forecasting demand. Things were complicated for us, since we didn’t have exp shipping the drums. Costs went up ridiculously because of the surge in fuel prices. Because we hadn’t locked in plastic costs, plastic prices went up and the so the cost of drums went up considerably from our plan. We had record operating profits anyway. I think there's some low hanging fruit this year we can fix. We’re getting more efficient
BF: You said in the earnings press release that your company is "properly sized and resourced." So do you feel confident you won't have to lay people off, like your competitors have?
BK: During the merger we rightsized business [note: most Vivendi Games employees were laid off during the merger]. We're probably different than a lot of companies. It doesn’t matter whether it's a good economy or mediocre -- Our culture of thrift is really oriented toward consistent evaluation toward profitability of projects and teams. If groups or projects did not reach our operating margin objectives, we we eliminated them. So we're in a good position from a resource perspective of having the right ones against opportunities
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