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Console price wars – the 2010 edition

Now that all three of the console manufacturers have cut prices, you might be tempted to think we won’t see additional reductions for a while. That’s far from certain, though.

Ps3-360

Microsoft has already shown some flexibility on its pricing with a $50 rebate on any Xbox 360 Elite purchase before Oct. 5. And one key industry analyst thinks that could be a test balloon for upcoming cuts, sooner than anyone was expecting. 

Michael Pachter, managing director of equity research at Wedbush Morgan Securities, predicts we’ll see more price shifting around the Xbox 360 as early as January – possibly February, depending on how successful the holiday season is.

Pachter believes Microsoft will cut the price of the Xbox 360 Elite with a 120 GB hard drive to $249 early next year, as it introduces an upgraded Elite version with a 250 GB hard drive for $299.

That pricing, he says, should continue until holiday 2010 – when Microsoft will dump the Arcade version of the system (which does not have a hard drive) and reduce the price of the system with a 120 GB hard drive to $199.

“With that, you’ve got a really great $200 console,” he says. “That’s a huge advantage over Sony.”

It’s speculative, of course, but Pachter has a pretty good track record. And keep in mind that Microsoft will be aggressively attempting to push Project Natal into people’s lives by late next year.

The bigger question is if this does happen as he predicts, can Sony afford to further reduce the price of the PS3? And, even if it can, will it? Two substantial price cuts in one year for the system could shorten its life cycle, something Sony would like to extend for as long as possible.

 

Sony launching PlayStation reality show

Reality TV is expanding its boundaries onto game consoles.Tester

Sony has announced an open casting call for “The Tester,” a new reality series that will be available exclusively on the PS3

The program, according to the company, “will follow a group of gamers as they face off in a series of elimination challenges designed to test their mental prowess, dexterity, and video game knowledge and compete to win a gamer’s ultimate dream job – an official PlayStation game tester.”

I’m not sure that being a game tester is really a dream job. Sure, you get to play games for a living, but the pay is typically low and the hours are long. It is, however, a foot in the door to the industry and is how many people have climbed the ladder to development.

Open casting is underway. Wannabe players should send a short video to www.us.PlayStation.com/psn/thetester telling why they’re well suited for the game.

51 Minds, which helped create “The Surreal Life,” “Flavor of Love” and “Rock of Love,” is working with Sony on the series, which will debut this winter. 

Sony unveils comic book eReader for PSP

Sony’s going after Amazon’s Kindle in a variety of fashions.Psp-marvel

Just weeks after announcing a pair of low cost eBook readers, the company today unveiled a comic book-themed digital reader for the PSP. It’s expected to launch this October.

Powerhouse comic publisher Marvel is one of the launch partners. The company will offer hundreds of comics on day one. Archie and Image comics are also on board. The company did not unveil any pricing information on the service.

"We will announce that in our market as we get a little closer to launch," says Peter Dille, Sony Computer Entertainment America's senior vice president of marketing.

Comics can be read frame by frame on the PSP’s screen.

While using the PSP to read comics may not sound like a threat to the Kindle, the company said it will extend the service beyond comics eventually. Digital books weren’t specifically mentioned, but are a pretty safe bet. 

2010 is looking even better for gamers

Bioshock2

Two big titles that were originally planned for release this holiday season have fallen out of the pack.

Sony has delayed “Heavy Rain” until 2010, while Take Two Interactive has done the same with “BioShock 2”. The moves are bound to upset some fans, but could ultimately prove beneficial for both titles.

“Heavy Rain” is an original IP – and would have found itself up against some serious competition during the holiday period. Historically, big sequels rule the sales charts at the end of the year. With eagerly awaited installments in the “Call of Duty” and “Splinter Cell” franchises leading the way, it’s very possible that “Heavy Rain” would have fallen by the wayside as consumers curb their spending.

It happened to EA and “Mirror’s Edge” last year. The game was a sales dud, never gaining any traction against bigger titles.

The story’s a bit different for “Bioshock 2”. As the sequel to one of the biggest games of 2007, it has an established fan base. The new game, though, isn’t being made by the same development team that created the original. Four studios are working on “Bioshock 2” at this point, which has set off warning bells for fans. The game did not have a particularly strong showing at E3 last month either.

 “The decision to shift a release date is never an easy one, especially with a product as highly anticipated as ‘BioShock 2’,” said Ben Feder, CEO of Take-Two in a statement. “We felt that it was essential to invest the additional time to ensure that this title will deliver what its fans expect and deserve.”

Technically, Take Two did not officially say the game (which was originally due in early November) will not be released this year. It simply moved it out of its fiscal 2009 earnings release schedule. But reading between the lines, it sounds like this could be a noteworthy delay.

The original “BioShock” was scheduled to be converted into a film helmed by Gore Verbinski, though that production was stuck in a holding pattern earlier this year. Producers are considering moving the production outside of the U.S. to take advantage of a tax credit.

Now Sony has a motion sensor, too

And then there were three…

Sony today joined the motion sensing controller club, unveiling the PlayStation Motion Controller, a new controller that works in concert with a video camera that it says it plans to launch in the spring of 2010.

It’s a controller that has a lot more in common with Nintendo than Microsoft’s “Project Natal”. A remote works in conjunction with the Sony EyeToy to reflect onscreen movement.

But where Nintendo is chasing the casual audience, Sony has its eye on the hardcore. The company showed several tech demos, including using the controller in a first person shooter context and as a mace, which takes out advancing demons with a swing.

Sony and Microsoft are both offering more advanced devices than the Wii, even when you take the Wii’s forthcoming WiiMotion Plus add on into account. But both are at least a year away from being available – and neither company has the current installed base of the Wii. The Wii, though, lacks the graphical power of the Xbox 360 or PS3. 

Should be an interesting fight when the three start slugging it out.

God of War 3 slips, Microsoft's surprise

As we prepare for the E3 madness to begin, there are some interesting nuggets of information floating about. None are necessarily long enough to warrant their own entry, so here, in easy to digest bullet points, are the whispers we’re currently hearing.

  • Hope “God of War 3” isn’t on your holiday wish list. Despite widespread assumptions that the game is due this year, word now is that it has been pushed to 2010 (as has the next “Gran Turismo”). We may get official confirmation of this tomorrow at Sony’s press conference. 
  • Microsoft’s press event later today will be star-filled. Tony Hawk will be there to demo (big shock here) “Tony Hawk Ride”. The big news is Microsoft’s surprise guest who will kick off the conference. I don’t want to ruin the surprise, but I will say the guest musical in nature – and is likely to “Help!” demo a hotly anticipated game from Harmonix. 
    • Update. Yep, they showed up. Paul McCartney, Ringo Starr, Yoko Ono and Olivia Harrison reunited on stage to promote “The Beatles: Rock Band” - but they didn't play the game. “The game is good. The graphics are very good. And we were great!,” joked Starr. Who would have ever thought we’d end up as androids?” added McCartney  
  • From Joystiq comes word that the DLC for “Batman: Arkham Asylum” that will allow PS3 owners to play as the Joker will be free. That’s a nice incentive for players and could give the PS3 version the upper hand when the game comes out later this year. 
  • “Starcraft 2” is reportedly looking great – and will be on shelves this year. Activision showed the game to analysts last night, who walked away impressed. Blizzard announced that it hopes to ship the game in calendar 2009, which should be a huge boost to Activision’s bottom line. The beta kicks off this summer.

Sony's motion sensing controller for PS3 to be unveiled at E3

Sony's much rumored motion sensing controller for the Playstation 3 is real and it will likely be unveiled at E3.

That's what I've been hearing from several sources, one of whom has seen the device and two of whom are familiar with Sony's plans to show it at E3 next month.

Rumors that Sony will come out with a motion sensing device have abounded for over two years, ever since a patent was first reported on in January of 2007.

A good source saw a working prototype several months ago that largely fit what was in the patent. Sony's controller apparently used LEDs (light emitting diodes, essentially little electric light sources) and a small webcam to track the device's movements. Because the camera can read different color lights and the shape and angle of each light, it's much more accurate than the Wii-mote. It can track precise movements, including along the Z axis (pushing toward and away from the TV; something the Wii is really bad at) as well as velocity.

As Kombo.com reported last month, Sony is apparently reaching out to select developers and publishers to get some early software coming.

I'm not sure when the device will be unveiled (later this year or mid-next year, I'd think given the E3 timing) or what software will initially be available. Or even what it will look like (the prototype apparently looks kinda funky with a bulb to house the LEDs on the end). But apparently we'll find out the answers soon.

It will be the second new product shown by Sony at E3, if 1UP's report about a new PSP that will only play downloadable content proves accurate.

A Sony rep declined to comment.

Update: As some astute readers have pointed out, the PS3 of course does have a motion sensing controller already. But this new one will be much more advanced than the Sixaxis and more in the shape of a stick, a la Nintendo's Wii-mote.

Shadow of the Colossus movie in development

Shadow1 One of the most critically beloved games of all time has started its path to the big screen.

"Shadow of the Colossus" is being set up at Sony Pictures by producer Kevin Misher ("The Interpeter," "The Rundown"), sources have confirmed (news first broke at the Hollywood Reporter).

"Shadow" was published by Sony Computer Entertainment, making this a rare example of content cross pollinating between the conglomerate's studio and games division.

The movie will be written by Justin Marks (Disney's in-development "20,000 Leagues Under the Sea," "Street Fighter: The Legend of Chun-Li'), who, I should admit, is a friend (as is Misher's development executive Kevin Chang, who played a key role in putting the project together).

Though it sold decently -- enough to keep the development team behind it, which also made "Ico," at work on a new title -- "Shadow" is best known for devoted praise by critics and fans of "games as art" (including me. It's one of my all time favorites). It's arguably the most emotional video game ever made.

It's also not an obvious candidate for a film. The game is an extremely solitary experience, as the main character, a young man named Wander (though you'd never know his name from playing the game) rides through a mysterious land on his horse Agro, slaying 16 colossi in hopes of bring the girl he loves back to life. As anyone who has played "Shadow" knows, it ends on a truly tragic note.

I understand the folks working on the project are planning to have some of the characters who appear only momentarily in the game, such as those who try to track down and stop Wander, play bigger roles in the film. And despite the game's somewhat "artsy" cred, they're hoping "Shadow" will be a "Lord of the Rings"-style fantasy tentpole.

As always, I do want to remind excitable gamers that getting set up a studio is still very far from actually making it to the big screen. Nonetheless, this is a pretty exciting first step for a not-too-obvious candidate for videogame-to-movie translation

More Call of Duty maps downloaded in a weekend than LittleBigPlanet levels uploaded in five months

I hesitate to ascribe any meaning to this comparison, since they're very different activities in very different games with differing time commitments and financial costs. Plus one of these includes two systems and the other is an exclusive to the smaller of the two.

Nonetheless, I couldn't help but find these two recently released statistics fascinating when paired together:

-Number of "Call of Duty: World at War" Map Packs downloaded in the first four days of availability at a cost of $10: over one million

-Number of "LittleBigPlanet" player-created levels uploaded in five months since the game launched: 725,000


Important? Pointless? I have my biases on the importance of downloadable content and general interest in creating platformer levels, but I'll let you readers decide.

OnLive and Zeebo portend a shift in power to TV/Internet providers [GDC]

Onlivelogo It was the biggest question at GDC: What do you think of OnLive? Will it work?

Given the major companies (EA, Take-Two, Ubisoft, Warner Bros.) behind it, OnLive is certainly not vaporware like the Phantom. It has solid technology and a business plan that could work. If the service runs as smoothly when it launches next Winter as it did in OnLive's GDC booth, it should have a fighting chance, especially amongst consumers who haven't yet bought an Xbox 360 or Playstation 3 (and most certainly by the time the big three launch their next consoles).

Regardless of whether OnLive is a hit, subscription-based or ad-supported video games are the future business model for the industry, just as it is for software and other forms of entertainment. Once consumers become comfortable not "owning" anything the way they do now, the insanity of buying a new console or version of Microsoft Office every few years will become apparent.

That transformation will mark a remarkable shift of power in the video game industry. No longer will Nintendo, Microsoft, and Sony be the center of the industry, defining technical specs and getting a cut of almost every dollar spent. The new center of power will likely be the cable and telecom companies that provide Internet and television service.

Remember when TiVo came out and the early DVR lovers bought its box? Today, TiVo is dying and most of us get TiVo-like service from our cable or satellite provider, via a set top box with a DVR built in. Instead of buying hardware for several hundred dollars, we just pay Comcast or Dish an extra $5 or $10 per month.

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February NPD: Street Fighter and Killzone start strong, Fear and 50 Cent don't

February video game sales data was just released today and all the data, including the top 10 titles, console sales, and industry growth, are below. But here are your key points:

The industry is slowing, but still growing despite the recession

It's nothing close to the phenomenal 34% growth of the U.S. video game business last year. But 10% when the rest of the economy is contracting is still quite impressive. And software and hardware are contributing virtually evenly to the mix -- a good sign that the hardware cycle isn't slowing and that current gamers aren't cutting back disproportionately on buying new titles.

Microsoft had a good comparison, Sony had a bad one

The 54% jump in Xbox 360 sales is impressive. But you have to remember that last February Xbox 360 sales were dismal, due largely to supply constraints post-holiday and in anticipation of "Grand Theft Auto IV." This past Fall's price cut helped too of course. But nothing as amazing as that 54% number would indicate actually happened for Microsoft. It's just back to where it should be.

Sony, meanwhile, had a decent month, given its recent problems. Sales were almost flat, despite the fact that the PS3 sold unusually well last February (thanks in part to the then-recent victory of Blu-ray, as well Killzoneboxas the 360's supply problems). Still, I'm sure Sony would love to see PS3 sales actually grow for a change. The PSP, meanwhile, continues to suffer. No wonder Sony's pushing aggressively for big new titles like "Hannah Montana," "Assassin's Creed," and "LittleBigPlanet" on the device.

 Killzone 2, Street Fighter IV both had solid launches

323,000 units in fifth place isn't bad for a PS3 exclusive that launched on the last Friday of the month. Quite good, in fact.

And Capcom kicked ass, at least as far as February releases go, with "Street Fighter IV," selling 849,000 units across the two high-end consoles. By contrast, Capcom's big sequel last February, "Devil May Cry 4," sold 528,700 on the same platforms.

FEAR 2 and 50 Cent, not so much

Fear2boxWarner Bros.' heavily hyped "FEAR 2: Project Origin," it's first stab at a non-licensed title for the  hard-core market, flopped. Despite launching early in the month, both the PS3 nor 360 versions sold less than 136,000 units. There are all sorts of possible reasons, most notably that in the current economy mid-level hard core titles simply aren't selling. But it's still a bad sign for the studios' ambitions to compete with major publishers that a sequel with relatively good reviews couldn't do better.

"50 Cent: Blood on the Sand," had the same problem, though it did launch late in the month. Still, THQ's expectations may have been more modest, since it bought the former Sierra title from Activision at what was likely a sizable discount off the full development cost.

Remember Nintendo? They're still dominating

There were no major new Nintendo releases, but that didn't slow the House of Mario down too much. It still claimed five of the top 10 games, with another, "Guitar Hero: World Tour" breaking into the top 10 only with its Wii version. Notably, the newest Nintendo game on the top 10, was at #1, "Wii Fit." It's "only" nine months old. "Mario Kart DS," meanwhile, is on the top 10 over three years after its debut.

And the Wii, once again, topped the market, growing 74% -- helped, of course, by easing supply. DS sales were flat, but still well ahead of every other console except the Wii.


Game Publisher Console Units Release Date
Wii Fit Nintendo Wii 644K May '08
Street Fighter IV Capcom 360 446K Feb. 17
Street Fighter IV Capcom PS3 403K Feb. 17
Wii Play Nintendo Wii 386K Feb '07
Killzone 2 Sony PS3 323K Feb. 27
Mario Kart Nintendo Wii 263K April '08
CoD: WaW Activision 360 193K Nov. 11
Mario Kart Nintendo DS 145K Nov. '05
New Super Mario Nintendo DS 144K May '06
GH: World Tour Activision Wii 136K Nov. 18


Console Feb. sales Year-on-year growth Lifetime sales
Wii 753K 74 17 M
Nintendo DS 588K 0            25.7 M
Xbox 360 391K 54 13.2 M
PlayStation 3 276K -2 6.3 M
PSP 199K -18 13.6 M











Category Feb-09 Change from '08
Industry total $1.47B      10%
Hardware $532.7M      11%
Software $733.5M       9%
Accessories $207.1M      13%











Comparing Playstation Network and Xbox Live, revenue is what matters

PsnAs Sony announced yesterday, Playstation Network has 20 million users.  Xbox Live, by comparison, has 17 million But PSN is for the Playstation 3 and PSP (around 70 million devices), while XBL is only for the Xbox 360 (about 28 million). PSN has been around for 27 months. XBL? 67.

What does it all mean? Who knows? There are dozens of variables that make comparisons difficult. But more importantly, "registered user" statistics are virtually meaningless. How many websites have you ever registered for? "Second Life" has over 15 million registered users, but it's struggling to survive and find a reason for being.

 

If you're interested in the business of video games, there's only one statistic of any significance: Sony has generated $180 million in gross revenue from PSN two-plus years of life. As of the last E3, after about five and a half years, Xbox Live had generated over $1 billion.

On that basis, the advantage goes to Microsoft. PSN has been around about 40% as long as Xbox Live, but made less than 20% as much money. Given how much more content there is available to download on consoles today (more games, video content, etc.) than the first few years of XBL, the advantage is even more dramatic.

Xbl EXCEPT... A little more than half of XBL members pay for the service. Without knowing how long they have paid for, and under what plans, it's tough to  estimate with any precision how much revenue that has generated for Microsoft. But it's safe to guess it's well into the hundreds of millions.

So on download revenue, the two might be roughly equal. But Microsoft still has an advantage. Revenue, after all, is revenue. And running Xbox Live certainly costs, ballpark, about as much as it costs to run Playstation Network. So Microsoft is making more revenue on around the same costs.

Sony's reason for making PSN free is, of course, to make the Playstation 3 and PSP more attractive. But given the weak sales of the PS3 and so-so sales of the PSP (whose main competitor, the DS, also offers free online play), it's not particularly working.

I think it's really tough to argue that, at this point, Sony wouldn't be better off by cutting the price of the PS3 as much as possible and making up at least some of the difference by charging for online play via PSN.

Can Hannah Montana save the PSP in 2009?

Hannahm The PSP is in trouble. And Sony has decided the answer is girls.

In a press release from its "Destination Playstation" event for retailers today, Sony said its handheld console has a "rapidly growing install base" and is "riding a wave of momentum," something anybody who has looked at the numbers knows isn't true. Worldwide sales last quarter were down 8% at 5.08 million. Domestically in 2008, sales were virtually flat in the U.S., according to NPD, at 3.8 million. So, yes, the install base is technically growing, but this isn't exactly a wave of momentum, especially compared to, say, Nintendo's DS, which saw sales grow 17% in the U.S. from a much bigger lead, putting it at almost double the PSP's install base.

PSP Software sales are also slowing, down 7% worldwide in the third quarter.

Sony's announcements that are getting the most attention, unsurprisingly, are PSP versions of "LittleBigPlanet," "Assassin's Creed," and "Rock Band." If they're executed well, those games could sell with the core gamer crowd, most of whom already have PSPs and have been begging for better software. "LittleBigPlanet" may face challenges, given how poorly it has sold for PS3. It's also worth keeping in mind that "Assassin's Creed" for the DS sold only 126,000 units, according to NPD. Nonetheless, that and "Rock Band" will, at a miminimum, get the attention of the big spending core gamers who have mostly ignored the system since last March's "God of War: Chains of Olympus."

PinkPSP But if Sony wants real growth, it has to compete for the audience that has so far ignored the PSP (and the PS3 for that matter) -- everyone besides young men. Which is why the biggest news today by far is its partnership with Disney for a new PSP-exclusive "Hannah Montana" game and hardware pack, which will include a pink PSP, the game, and "Hannah Montana" episodes on UMD (coming in July; pre-order at GameStop now!).

In addition, Sony has lured Ubisoft to make PSP versions of its "Petz" games, which are really popular with younger female gamers.

Sony is not being subtle about its goals, stating explicitly in the release that it's making a "push toward teen and 'tween' girl gamers."

And why not? To broadly stereotype, girls love their cell phones and they're a sizable portion of the DS demo. They're the lowest hanging fruit out there.

Drawing Disney into the PSP fold with one of its biggest tween girl franchises (save for "High School Musical") undoubtedly cost Sony something. There's a reason, after all, that past "Hannah Montana" games have been on DS, Wii and PS2. In fact, as this IGN compilation shows, Disney Interactive has only made two games for the PSP ever. Compare that to 24 on the DS. Given that Disney has had huge success making games based on "Hannah Montana," "High School Musical," "Kim Possible" and other licenses aimed squarely at girls, those numbers says a lot about what it thinks of the PSP audience.

In other words, Disney surely isn't doing this because it thinks it can sell lots of games and UMD episodes. But "Hannah Montana" could be a great draw for Sony to sell more PSPs to a new demo. Given who receives most of the benefits, I think we know who's funding most of the costs.

Sony fanboys starting to resemble Rush Limbaugh

Killzonebox A few years ago I co-wrote a book about how politicians use the tools of public relations to deceive the public without lying called "All the President's Spin." George W. Bush was our primary example, for the simple reason that he was president at the time and an expert at deceiving without lying.

I've never brought it up before because it never seemed relevant (though I will note for anyone interested that's it's available used on Amazon.com for literally one penny; and I promise it's worth more than a penny). But today it seemed relevant when I was reading this piece that has been spreading around the Interweb like wildfire by PSXextreme editor Ben Dutka that epitomizes some of the, ummm, rather rabid response of Playstation 3 fans to any less than stellar reviews of Sony's upcoming action game "Killzone 2."

In particular, Dutka (and many of his commenters) is worked up about this review in Edge Magazine, which had the temerity to say some negative things about the hotly anticipated game and score it a 7 out of 10 (a score that is above average and means the reviewer liked the game, but let's leave that aside). I haven't played the game yet (though I have a copy and am eager to try it soon), so I have no personal beef one way or another with the review. But let's remember, it's a review. There's no way it can be "wrong" unless the reviewer cites factually incorrect evidence or makes indisputably illogical arguments. As far as I can tell, Edge's anonymous reviewer didn't do that.

Nonethelss, Dutka went pretty much ballistic, calling the review a "lie." After writing "All the President's Spin," I was particularly intrigued by these descriptions:

[W]e advise all of you to ignore the desperate-for-attention, we're-going-to-prove-our-elite-status so-called "review" from Edge that has the entire Internet talking...

We all know that ["Killzone 2" developer] Guerilla's title is one of the best FPSs ever made; anyone who knows this industry and has a functioning brain will admit to this...

[Good reviewers] don't lie to the consumer to get some sort of underground "elite cred..."

"[A] bunch of kids with superiority complexes who just want to prove they 'know more' than everyone else...at the expense of the consumer." That, right there, sums up Edge's review.

Notice the language used: "Elite" twice. "Superiority complexes." "Know more than everyone else." And who do these elitist know-it-alls stand in contrast to? All of us, the average consumers, who just "know" (without having played it, in the case of 99% of us) that "Killzone 2" is one of the best games ever.

"Killzone 2" defenders are the regular people, you see, the common folks who know the truth without having to do the research (in this case, playing the game). Those know-it-alls at Edge may have done the research, but the fact that they disagree with us is prima facie evidence that they're elitist snobs who just want to prove they're smarter and know better. They think they're something wrong with the game we like (or are sure we will like). Oh, and did I mention that Edge is British? (OK, Dutka didn't say that, but the fact is out there and you know that Brits think they're so much better than us Americans.)

Anyone who has followed political discourse knows this routine: It's the set of charges that have been used, often to great success, against Democrats for 20-plus years. Every Democratic presidential candidate since at least Dukakis has been called an elitist, a snob, someone trying to impress his friends in the media or in Europe or the coffee shops and colleges.

It's a classic dirty tactic of political discourse: Delegitimize your opponents' views not by engaging them on the issues -- Dutka doesn't once argue with the substance of what Edge said -- but by questioning their motives and associating with with dislikable groups.

Obviously I'm not saying Rush Limbaugh is orchestrating the "Killzone 2" backlash backlash, or that there's really any crossover between Sony fanboys and Republicans (except perhaps the fact that they've both been supporting losing causes for the past few years <thank you folks, I'll be here all night>). But a nasty rhetorical tactic is a nasty rhetorical tactic and it would be great if those of us who write and talk about videogames could do a little better than the bottom of the barrel of political discourse.

(For a more amusing take on hardcore Sony fans' reactions to a positive "Killzone 2" review, check out this rant from X-Play's Adam Sessler)

GDC Awards shut out Nintendo, celebrate Sony

GDClogo The biggest business story of 2008 in the world of vidoegames was, without a doubt, the success of Nintendo. Followed closely by the struggles of Sony. The Wii and DS beat the PS3 and PSP, respectively, by a factor of nearly three in unit sales last year. Games published by the house of Mario took five of the spots on NPD's year end top ten sales chart, while nothing published by Sony, or for its consoles, made the list.

Which is why it's so striking to look at the nominees for the Game Developers Choice Awards today and see Nintendo completely and utterly shut out. Sony, meanwhile, had the most nominations of any publisher (12), the most nominations for games exclusive to its consoles (14), and tied for the most games nominated available for its consoles (25).

Apparently the people who make games do not agree with the public about who's leading the industry. (Which, I think, adds credence to my arguments that Sony is getting too artsy for its own good and Nintendo games are like "Paul Blart: Mall Cop").

Looking through the 50 GDC nominations (ten categories, five picks each), it's amazing that there's only one game developed or published by Nintendo ("Advance Wars: Day of Ruin"). In fact, just seven of the 50 nods went to games that are even available on the DS or Wii. 25 are available on PS3, 25 for Xbox 360 (how convenient), 19 for PC, three for DS and three for PSP.

The Best Handheld Game category is particularly revealing. Even though the DS handily outsells the PSP and has significantly more software, three of the five nominated games are for PSP, two for DS.

The story's the same when it comes to exclusives. Only four nods, one each for "Boom Blox," "Soul Bubbles," "Advance Wars: Days of Ruin" and "The World Ends with You," went to games exclusive to Nintendo consoles. By contrast, there were eight nods for Xbox 360 exclusives ("Gears 2," "Fable 2" and "Braid") and 14 for PS3 or PSP ("LittleBigPlanet," "MGS 4," "Patapon," "God of War: Chains of Olympus," "Echochrome," and "PixelJunk Eden").

The three best selling games released in 2008, "Wii Fit," "Mario Kart Wii," and "Super Smash Bros. Brawl," all of which were published by Nintendo, were completely shut out.

It's not that the GDC nominees are a bunch of obscure indie titles. Game of the Year picks "Grand Theft Auto IV," "Fable 2," "Fallout 3," "Left 4 Dead" and "LittleBigPlanet" are all heavily hyped and, with the exception of "LBP," solid or exceptional sellers. This is hardly like the Oscars, overloaded as it is with movies like "The Reader," "Milk," "Frozen River," and "Doubt," that few people have even heard of, let alone seen.

But still, there's an evident divergence between what's selling and what's being celebrated. Is it a bad thing? I don't personally think so. I would quibble with plenty of particular nominations, but overall the GDC nominators made very respectable -- if somewhat safe -- choices. The simple fact is that Nintendo didn't do particularly innovative or exciting work last year. And third party publishers, with a few  exceptions, didn't do their best work for the DS or Wii. In part because the industry has been slow to adjust the the success of the Lbp3 Wii. And in part because you can simply do more on the PS3 and 360.

And we can't forget the impact of one game, Sony's PS3 exclusive "LittleBigPlanet," which took seven of the 50 nominations despite being something of a bust commercially (it sold just 611,000 units last year, per NPD).

This could very well be the trend going forward, at least for this console generation. It sure seems to me that the games that hardcore players, the press, and the industry are excited about in 2009 are mostly for PC/PS3/360.

More on some of the specific picks later. For now, here are the nominees (per Gamasutra, which presents the GDC awards):

Best Game Design
Far Cry 2(Ubisoft Montreal)
Braid (Number None)
Fallout 3 (Bethesda Game Studios)
Left 4 Dead (Valve Software)
LittleBigPlanet (Media Molecule)

Best Visual Art
Fallout 3 (Bethesda Game Studios)
Metal Gear Solid 4 (Kojima Productions)
Prince Of Persia (Ubisoft Montreal)
LittleBigPlanet (Media Molecule)
Gears Of War 2 (Epic Games)

Best Technology
Spore (Maxis)
Grand Theft Auto IV (Rockstar North)
Left 4 Dead (Valve Software)
LittleBigPlanet (Media Molecule)
Gears Of War 2 (Epic Games)

Best Writing
Far Cry 2 (Ubisoft Montreal)
Braid (Number None)
Fallout 3 (Bethesda Game Studios)
Grand Theft Auto IV (Rockstar North)
Metal Gear Solid 4 (Kojima Productions)

Best Audio
Dead Space (EA Redwood Shores)
LittleBigPlanet (Media Molecule)
Metal Gear Solid 4 (Kojima Productions)
Left 4 Dead (Valve Software)
Gears Of War 2 (Epic Games)

Best Debut
Braid (Number None)
Sins Of A Solar Empire (Ironclad Games)
LittleBigPlanet (Media Molecule)
World Of Goo (2D Boy)
Soul Bubbles (Mekensleep)

Innovation
Spore (Maxis)
World Of Goo (2D Boy)
Boom Blox (EA Los Angeles)
Braid (Number None)
LittleBigPlanet (Media Molecule)

Best Handheld
Patapon (Pyramid/SCE Japan)
Advance Wars: Days Of Ruin (Intelligent Systems)
God Of War: Chains Of Olympus (Ready At Dawn Studios)
Echochrome (SCE Japan)
The World Ends With You (Jupiter/Square Enix)

Best Downloadable Game
Castle Crashers (The Behemoth)
Braid (Number None)
World Of Goo (2D Boy)
N+ (Metanet/Slick Entertainment)
Pixeljunk Eden (Q-Games)

Game of the Year
Fable 2 (Lionhead Studios)
LittleBigPlanet (Media Molecule)
Fallout 3 (Bethesda Game Studios)
Left 4 Dead (Valve Software)
Grand Theft Auto IV (Rockstar North)

Playstation 3 attach rates ties the Wii

Ps3 It’s no surprise, after seeing the 2008 NPD numbers, that the videogame segment of Sony’s earnings today were pretty dismal, while Nintendo’s were pretty fantastic. Just as in the U.S., Playstation 3 worldwide sales declined during the quarter ended Dec. 31 -- 9 % to be exact, to 4.46 million -- which is decidedly not good for a two year old console. Nintendo Wii sales, meanwhile, surged 50% worldwide to 10.41 million. (Microsoft, we previously learned, sold 6 million Xbox 360 consoles last quarter, up 28%.)

However Sony did point to one positive: a 57% jump in PS3 software sales. But software sales only matter compared to the total number of consoles (a ratio known as the attach rate). And after working that out, we find that the PS3 has virtually the same attach rate as the Wii. Meaning Sony really has nothing to brag about.

By Dec. 31, the PS3’s worldwide install base was 21.39 million, about double what it was last year. The Wii’s grew 123% to just under 45 million. On the software side, Nintendo and other publishers sold 82.4 million Wii games in the quarter ending Dec. 31, up 74%, while Sony et al sold 40.6 million PS3 games, up 57%. The comparative software sales growth rates for the quarter almost exactly mirror the comparative growth in the two consoles’ install bases.

So if software sales compared to hardware sales are growing at the same rate, are they ending up anywhere different? Nope. Sony says 40.6 million PS3 games were Wiisold last quarter, or 1.89 for every console on the market. Consumers bought 82.4 million Wii games, or 1.83 per piece of hardware. Almost identical.

(Microsoft, alas, doesn’t reveal its worldwide software sales. And while it has traditionally had a very strong attach rate in the U.S., it’s tough to know how it all ads up when you combine that with the weak Japanese market and Europe.)

 

Playstation 3 owners might be willing to shell out more for a console, it turns out, but they’re not buying more games (though they are, to be fair, spending about $10 more per game). Microsoft has the advantage, in the U.S. at least, of a much higher attach rate than its competitors. Sony doesn’t have that. It’s third place in consoles and tied with its biggest competitor in comparative software sales. And compared to Microsoft, it’s not making nearly as much money online (since Sony doesn’t charge for subscriptions or run ads). Which means after two years, Sony still has a fundamental problem to solve: What is the business advantage of the PS3 over its competitors?

(Sony also has a problem in common with Nintendo: the devastating impact of the strong Japanese Yen on earnings. That's one of several reasons why struggling Sony has had to cut earnings forecasts, but the only reason why otherwise prospering Nintendo did the same.)

At Sundance modering a panel on storytelling in video games

Posting will be light today and tomorrow as I'm in Park City, Utah,  at the Sundance Film Festival to moderate a panel on storytelling in videogames (basic info here). It looks like a great panel and I'm told that it is being filmed and that it should be digitized so hopeuflly I'll be able to post it here for you all to cringe at watch next week.

Here's the panelists. FYI, it's sponsored by Activision Blizzard, which is why you'll find three out of the four of them do or have worked for the company. Still a very good group, though, I think:

Filippo Costanzo, head of R&D, Activision

Flint Dille, TV/movie/video game writer who has worked on everything from "G.I. Joe" to "An American Tail" to "The Chronicles of Riddick: Assault on Butcher Bay" (the kick ass game based on the not so kick ass movie)

Bruce Feirstein, screenwriter whose credits include several James Bond movies and games

Chad Findley, lead designer, Neversoft


Meanwhile, there is news today and unfortunately I don't have time to lend much analysis. So I recommend checking out Gamasutra for solid write ups of disappointing earnings and layoffs at Microsoft and Sony, as well at slightly better news at Ubisoft, including a solid launch for "Far Cry 2," a more disappointing debut for "Prince of Persia" (perhaps because it came later in the year and deeper in the recession) and the official if unsurprising announcement that "Assassin's Creed 2" is coming by next March (and probably this holiday season).

Weakest press release headline of the day

Comes on Sony's analysis of the new NPD data, which is full of bad news for PS3 and PSP:

PlayStation Brand Staged for Continued Momentum in 2009

It had better be.

Nintendo props up the slowing videogame biz in 2008

Mariojump I just changed the title of this post (thus the different url for you nitpickers out there) for one simple reason: After thinking about the new NPD data for a little while, that strikes me as the real story.

Despite the ongoing recession, the videogame industry had a grew 19% in 2008, a figure most any other industry, especially every other sector of media, would envy.

But there's no denying that figure is being hurt by the recession. In October, the biz grew 18%; November, 10%; December, just 9%. Just a year ago, in December of 2007, the U.S. videogame biz grew an astonishing 28%. It's looking very likely that industry is looking at single digit growth in 2009.

Almost every major company is feeling the pain of the economic downturn to one extent or another. All the big publishers have admitted in recent investor calls that they are retail traffic and ordering grow more conservative. Electronic Arts, the nation's biggest publisher, had to warn it wouldn't hit earnings targets.

And then there's Sony. The latest NPD data is just plain dismal for the Playstation maker and explains why it's likely on the verge of major layoffs. Forget slowing growth -- sales for the PS3 and PSP actually declined in December compared to a year ago, the second month in a row that happened. All those great reviews for "LittleBigPlanet" and the victory of Blu-ray and the "Ratchet and Clank" PSP entertainment pack just didn't make a difference. Though total PS3 sales did grow a healthy 40% from the terrible 2007 figures, the console remains mired far behind 360 and Wii with virtually no chance of catching up (here's one theory why).

So with all those problems, how is the industry even doing as well as it is? One word: Nintendo. Wii sales boomed 62% this year, breaking NPD's all-time record by selling more than 10 million units. DS grew 17%, coming in just a hair behind the Wii with 9.95 million. Both figures are more than the 360 and PS3 combined.

The story's the same in games. Five of the top ten games of the year were for DS and Wii and all five were published by Nintendo itself. And things are only getting better. Six of the top ten in December were for those platforms with five published by the "Mario" maker itself.

For those of us interested in the wide variety of innovative, interesting games released on all five consoles (and PC!), it's important to keep this fact in mind: In a year that featured new releaes like "Dead Space," "LittleBigPlanet," "Fallout 3," "Far Cry 2," and "Metal Gear Solid 4," none of those games sold more than 1.65 million units domestically (in a single sku, anyway) and made the top ten.

Particularly notable is the staying power of Nintendo's games (as I noted last month, it really does have the best legs in the videogame biz). While every game from competing publishers in December's top 10 chart was released in October or November, Nintendo had two games release in the spring, one in 2007, and another -- the astonishing "Mario Kart" DS -- came out in November of 2005.

Microsoft remains right in the middle. 360 sales grew 2% in 2008. It continued to boast strong sales for its biggest franchises -- "Gears of War 2" sold over 2.3 million units -- and very strong third party sales, with three of the top ten games third party titles for the 360. It may be losing that advantage, though, as the Wii ended up with the most third party third party games sold in December for the second month in a row.

More thoughts coming soon, no doubt. Meanwhile, here's the data to ponder yourselves:

Game                      Console     Publisher     Units sold in Dec.  Release date

Wii Play                    Wii           Nintendo        1.46 million          Feb 12, 2007

Call of Duty 5            360           Activision       1.33 million          Nov. 10

Wii Fit                          Wii           Nintendo        999,000               May 19

Mario Kart                Wii            Nintendo        979,000               April 27

Guitar Hero: WT        Wii           Activision       850,000               Oct. 28

Gears of War 2         360           Microsoft       745,000                Nov. 7

Left 4 Dead              360           EA/Valve        629,000                Nov. 18

Mario Kart                DS            Nintendo        540,000               Nov. 14, 2005

Call of Duty 5           PS3           EA                533,000               Nov. 10

Animal Crossing...    Wii           Nintendo         497,000              Nov. 16

Game                      Console     Publisher     Units sold in 2008  Release date

Wii Play                   Wii            Nintendo        5.28 million          Feb 12, 2007                                   

Mario Kart                Wii            Nintendo        5 million               April 27                                        

Wii Fit                      Wii           Nintendo        4.53 million           May 19                                        

Smash Bros...        Wii            Nintendo        4.17 million           Mar. 9                                          

GTA IV                    360           Rockstar        3.29 million           Apr. 29

Call of Duty 5           360           Activision       2.75 million           Nov. 10

Gears of War 2         360           Microsoft       2.31 million            Nov. 7

GTA IV                    PS3          Rockstar        1.89 million           Apr. 29

Madden NFL '09       360           EA                1.87 million           Aug. 12

Mario Kart                DS           Nintendo        1.65 million           Nov. 14, 2005

Console       Dec. unit sales  Growth   2008 units sales  Growth     Lifetime-to-date
DS              3.04 million         23%      9.95 million         17%             26.6 million
Wii              2.15 million         59%     10.17 million        62%             16.6 million                                 
360             1.44 million         14%      4.7 million           2%               13.9 million
PSP            1 million            -4%        3.8 million           0%              14.2 million
PS3             726,000             -9%       3.5 million          40%              6.8 million                             

Category             Dec. revenue   Change     2008 revenue       Change
Total industry     $5.29 billion        9%       $21.33 billion          19%
Hardware           $1.88 billion        2%       $7.81 billion            11%
Software            $2.75 billion       15%       $10.96 billion          26%
Accessories       $662 million        8%       $2.57 billion            14%

(Thanks to Justin Kroll for help compiling data. And apologies if the charts don't look good on your browser. I did my best!)

Is Sony too artsy for its own good?

ArtSony With NPD's December and total 2008 sales data coming out tomorrow, it seems like a timely moment to ask: Why is the Playstation 3 performing so badly? After a decent start to the year, Sony has been slipping further and further behind its competitors. By November, it wasn't just a distant third place, but the only current gen console to see sales actually decline from 2007, despite two heavily hyped new games, one of which got overwhelmingly stellar reviews and was touted as a system seller (starts with an "L," ends with "anet").

There are lots of potential reasons that we're all aware of, including price (even though the PS3 is arguably the best value given its features, it still costs $100 more than the standard 360 and $150 more than a Wii), developers' difficulty working with the system, price, consumers' confusion over blu-ray, price, a lack of good exclusives, price, and, oh yea, price.

Sony's aware of all this, of course, and there are are reasons it can't solve them (on the price front, especially, SCE apparently feels an intense need to turn a profit, even if that means ceding volume). But an interesting question is why Sony's efforts to stand out -- the advantages it does have over its competitors -- aren't working. One reason: Odd as it is to say, I think Sony may just be too artsy. It's giving smart gamers (a category in which I'd include myself) what they want and it's not helping the bottom line.

Example #1: What was Sony's biggest release this year? "LittleBigPlanet." Sony may have attempted to market this as an all-aged fun-stravaganza, but given the weak sales so far (215,000 domestic units in October; far less <outside the top 20> in November; only 1.3 million registered users worldwide, meaning it sold far fewer), it hasn't yet hit a mass audience. So who does love it? From what I can tell, fans of quality, "artsy" games. The reviews are spectacular (one of the worst reviews on Metacritic coming from this largely positive crank) and there's tons of buzz amongst game critics, bloggers, aspiring designers, and others who like to really think about the games they play.

Similarly, Sony has put a lot of emphasis on the Playstation Network Store. It's the only one of the big three console makers that's investing its own money on downloadable "indie" games, resulting in innovative exclusives like "flow," the "PixelJunk" series, "Echochrome," and soon titles like "Flower" and "Fat Princess." Xbox Live Arcade and WiiWare have fewer exclusive "indie" games, more ports of old favorites, and, frankly, more junk (though there are a few gems, like "Braid" and "World of Goo").

Of course there's "Home." Sony's answer to Xbox Live is to basically mimic "Second Life," the heavily hyped virtual world that was actually used by just a small number of artsy-minded Web obsessives.

The Cross Media Bar (XMB) is much cleaner and more Google-esque than Xbox Live, filled as it is with ads and other clutter, or the boring grid on the Wii menu.

Even the console itself is smoother, prettier, quieter -- a superior work of art.

And yet... there's little evidence any of it is helping sales. Sony has all these advantages, and plenty of smart people touting them, but it's mired in third place. It's not that being artsy is a bad thing. Substantively, it's great. And impressive that such a big corporation manages it. But as a question of where the company dedicates resources, I wonder whether Sony's being too high minded.

That's not to say Sony hasn't made any efforts to hit other audiences. "Resistance" 1 and 2, "Uncharted," the upcoming "Killzone 2" are all games that broader audiences should be able to appreciate. But so far, none have really caught on. Certainly not the way that "Gears of War" or "Wii Fit," to mention some new franchises aimed at mass audiences from Sony's competitors, have.

It's notable, if obvious, that the PS3's best month in 2008, the only one in which it sold more than 400,000 units domestically, was June, when "Metal Gear Solid 4" came out. And looking forward, the best hope on Sony's horizon to really move consoles in 2009 is probably when "God of War III" is released.

When all is said and done, Sony's efforts to do something different are impressive, but not enough to change the game, or at least overcome that $400 price tag. Compared to, say, Nintendo's efforts to do something different with the Wii, the PS3's artsy ambitions are barely moving the needle at all.

Which isn't to say it's a bad idea. "LittleBigPlanet" is a major achievement in videogame design and Playstation Network is undoubtedly leading the way in the indie gaming movement. XMB and the PS3 console are elegantly designed. But if Sony want more people to appreciate them, it looks like the old rules apply: it needs more hit core or family franchises, and probably a price cut.

Plus ca change...

Microsoft vs. Sony, stats from CES

I won't be able to transcribe my interview with Microsoft entertainment president Robbie Bach (who oversees videogames, amongst other things) until tonight, most likely. But between my talk to him, Microsoft's keynote last night, and Sony's keynote today (which included a section with Playstation topper Kaz Hirai talking videogames), I got a few interesting statistics worth comparing:

-Number of worldwide members of Microsoft's online videogame service Xbox Live: 17 million. Number of registered accounts on Sony's competing Playstation Network: 17 million. (Even though there are substantially fewers PS3s on the market than Xbox 360s, Sony does have the advantage of people going onto PSN from the PSP. In addition, PSN is free to play online, but Xbox Live costs money, though anyone can "join" just to browse downloadable content)

-In the last three months of 2008, Microsoft added 3 million Xbox Live members. In December, Sony added 2.1 million Playstation Network members.

-Playstation Network users have downloaded more than 330 million pieces of content. Microsoft's content downloads went up 70% since it launched the new version of Xbox Live in November (not comparable, I know)

-Over 25 million "Halo" games have been sold and the average player spends more than 150 hours online (given that some people don't play online, that means some people have played a lot more than 150 hours. wow.)

-More than 1.3 million "unique users" have played "LittleBigPlanet." Note that this is not the same as Sony saying it has sold 1.3 million units of the game. There are more than 300,000 user-created levels already. It would take two straight years, non-stop, to play them all.

-Over 80% of all "Guitar Hero" and "Rock Band" downloads have been on Xbox Live, which means only about 20% are on Playstation Network. Microsoft says it has sold over 60 million song downloads. Assuming that just an infinitismal number of those are for new karaoke game "Lips," that means Sony has sold about 12 million songs on PSN for those two franchises (and probably a few million more for its "Singstar" karaoke franchise).

The most overrated videogames of 2008

(Part of our series counting down the top ten videogames of 2008 -- with interruptions for the most disappointing and most overrated -- according to Variety critics Leigh Alexander, Tom Chick, Chris Dahlen and Ben Fritz. Full details are here. To check out the rest of the list, click here. Most importantly, vote for your favorite games of 2008 in the Cut Scene reader awards here.)

These are not games we thought were bad, or even disappointing. They're the videogames that Variety's critics found fell the shortest of what most other critics and/or the public thought. It also, interestingly, the only category in this whole process in which all four of us agree about a game.

Chris Dahlen

Grand Theft Auto IV (Rockstar / Rockstar North)

Crane_jump_2 It’s a lie to say that sandbox games let the player “do anything they want”; they still have an underlying vision, as we saw in "Fallout 3." So what’s "GTA IV’s" vision? That the American Dream ain’t perfect? That consumerism infects our lives? That talk radio lies to us? This is dimestore cynicism. It’s easy to admire the parts – the drunk effects, the jazz fusion station, the consistently interesting mission design, the Ricky Gervais cameo, and the way the cars go so much faster when you hit the highlife. But the sum ain’t there.

LittleBigPlanet (Sony / Media Molecule)Lbp1_3

A niche game for budding game designers, disguised as an all-ages, endless dreamscape. And here’s a question: why do the games that bet big on user-generated content consistently expect users to dive into specialized skills such as platformer level design, puzzlecrafting, or 3-D modeling, when the two types of content that real life people actually put on the web – text, and photographs – are neglected?

Castle Crashers (The Behemoth)

Castlecrashers It’s not like me to bash an indie. But "Castle Crashers’" single-player campaign was repetitive and undistinguished, and four-player co-op was good for maybe an hour – an hour that’s now better spent with "Left4Dead."


Ben Fritz

Fallout 3 ( Bethesda Softworks / Bethesda)Fallout3a

When fans rattle off all the awesome things they saw and did in “Fallout 3,” I can hardly argue. But I don’t understand why all the tedious, old-fashioned RPG tasks in between don’t bother them more. Whether I’m agonizing over how to distribute all my points and perks after finding out I made a bunch of bad choices the last time I leveled up, working through a dialogue tree with one of the information repositories known as “people,” struggling with the mediocre combat, or just trying to find the stuff I need so I can move on, 80% of “Fallout 3” is a slog to get to the 20% that’s actually worth experiencing.

LittleBigPlanet (Sony / Media Molecule)

Lbp2 The ultimate problem with “LittleBigPlanet” is that it’s impressive, but nothing more. Wow, sackboy is cute. Damn, those level-building tools are remarkably easy to use. Holy cow, that user created level looks just like a working calculator / a lamborghini / “Duck Hunt” / “God of War.” But there’s nothing remotely engaging about the experience, unless you’re in that small minority with dozens of hours to kill and the desire to make an awesome platforming level.

Patapon

Patapon (Sony / Sony)

The fact that you push four buttons to a beat and everything's really cute doesn't make up for the fact that this is a painfully simple RTS with absolutely no substance.

Leigh Alexander

Professor Layton and the Curious Village (Nintendo / Level 5)

Why are charming little animations an excuse to glorify the sort of dull school workbook designed expressly to validate Mensa wannabes?

LittleBigPlanet (Sony / Media Molecule)

Lbp3 It's adorable, I'm heartened by the vision behind it and couldn't be more impressed with Media Molecule and its beautiful execution. But at the end of the day, I'm a fan of video games because I want the professionals to make them for me. I don't want to make video games, I don't really care what my "friends from the Internet" have made, and I often wonder how many people really do care -- and how many people just leapt on board the bandwagon of positive sentiment surrounding an effort they admired. 

Tom Chick

Grand Theft Auto IV (Rockstar / Rockstar North)

Tough_dealership One of the most amazing realizations of a real-world-ish place and one of my favorite games this year. Also the setting for a poorly told
story and uninspired gameplay, and the subject of a system-shattering
PC port.


LittleBigPlanet (Sony / Media Molecule)

Awesome graphics! And those little sack people are so cute I could just eat them up! Now where's the game? Braid4

Braid (Number None)

This is not a game that moves and it's not very accessible. You need to have a stomach for old-school platformers and mental brick walls. Which is a shame, because the place Braid eventually goes is sublime.

Coming Monday morning: The best videogame(s) of 2008

The fifth best videogame(s) of 2008

(Part of our series counting down the top ten videogames of 2008 -- with interruptions for the most disappointing and most overrated -- according to Variety critics Leigh Alexander, Tom Chick, Chris Dahlen and Ben Fritz. Full details are here. To check out the rest of the list, click here. Most importantly, vote for your favorite games of 2008 in the Cut Scene reader awards here.)

Chris Dahlen

ProfessorlaytonProfessor Layton and the Curious Village (Nintendo / Level 5)

I love solving puzzles. I love being patted on the head when I get one right. And I love a game that will give me little, helpful hints but never hand me the answer, no matter how much I beg.





Ben Fritz

de Blob (THQ / Blue Tongue)Deblob1

This unlikely translation of a Dutch student project into a AAA American release is the most unjustly overlooked videogame of the year, both critically and commercially. Its embrace of color and music over gray monotony may be simple, but it’s the infusion of those aesthetics into the gameplay, so that the visual and aural richness of the world grows along with the player’s progress, that makes “de Blob” so impressive and infectious.

Leigh Alexander

PixelJunk Eden (Sony / Q Games)

Pixeljunk_2 Quickly glance at its undulating colors, ambient techno and iconic floral design (which I wholly believe is ripped off in the graphic design for some current Sears ads) and it's easy to dismiss "PixelJunk Eden" as an "art" game. In fact, it's deceptively accessible in its simplicity, sometimes deliciously frustrating, and often luminously trance-inducing. Its taut design subtly graduates the player into ever more expansive challenges and provides a real sense of growth and unfurling along the way.

Tom Chick

EndWar (Ubisoft / Ubisoft Shanghai) Endwar

Okay, I'm going to get wonky here. "EndWar" is not your normal real time strategy game, and not just because it finally cracks the code for how to play an RTS on a console system (The key? Voice commands!). "EndWar" is a gamble. In fact, I think it misreads the appeal of the genre. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if this turned out to be a commercial fiasco for Ubisoft. But that's what you risk when you cannily rework how real time strategy games play. "EndWar" is about moving pieces on a board and psyching out your opponent. It's about knowing when to push and when to give. It's about carefully upgrading your units over the course of a perhaps too dynamic campaign. This is one of the most subversive game designs of the year for how it takes the fussy action movie motif of a typical RTS and recasts it as an elegant European board game. If Reiner Knizia made RTSs, this is the one he'd make. See, I told you I was going to get wonky.


Coming this afternoon: The fourth best videogame(s) of 2008.

The sixth best videogame(s) of 2008

(Part of our series counting down the top ten videogames of 2008 -- with interruptions for the most disappointing and most overrated -- according to Variety critics Leigh Alexander, Tom Chick, Chris Dahlen and Ben Fritz. Full details are here. To check out the rest of the list, click here. Most importantly, vote for your favorite games of 2008 in the Cut Scene reader awards here.)

Leigh Alexander

Mega Man 9 (Capcom / Inti Creates)

Megaman9 In today's era of blisteringly sharp next-gen, why on earth would Capcom ape the NES era -- staticky scan lines, brutal difficulty and all? Because, given that today's audience endlessly compares new franchise installments to their rosy memories of ancient predecessors, it's a damn great idea to just give them what they want. "Mega Man 9" reminded most players what a feat it was that they fell in love with such a punishing medium, re-instilled the youthful love of frustration -- and beyond nostalgia, actually managed to show off some of the best level design the series has ever seen.

Tom Chick

Patapon (Sony / Pyramid)Patapon1_2

No game this year that had me grinning as consistently as I grin when I play "Patapon." I love these little guys, and in return, they love me. They dance and sing for me. They talk to me. As I drum them their rhythm, which is really all the gameplay there is here, their little eyes roll around. They jump and sway. They charge forward. The colorful sky fills with their arrows. I feel terrible as they're stamped into the ground or stabbed by evil patapons. I consider which one gets which hat and which sword. I dole out horses carefully. Did I mention that I love these little guys? The simple fact about "Patapon" is that it makes me happy. Not since "Katamari Damacy" has a game been so purely and simply joyous.

Chris Dahlen

Rock Band 2 (MTV and EA / Harmonix)

Rb2 A strong platform saw key improvements. The single-player band mode made it easier for me to play alone; the no-fail mode and freestyle drum trainer made the game accessible to my three-year-old. (Who doesn’t dream that their kid will grow up to be a drummer?) And the addition of hipster essentials like "Mission of Burma" to the music store proves yet again that Harmonix is staffed by genuine, signed-in-blood rock snobs – just the way I like ‘em.

Ben Fritz

World of Goo (Various / 2D Boy)Worldgoo

Plenty of games nailed “cute” this year, but “World of Goo” dismisses that for something much harder to achieve: atmosphere. A simple building mechanic is tied to an impressively diverse set of puzzles, making this a game worth playing even if it was set against a blank white wall. But its the sinister music, the off kilter designs and those disturbing notes from “the sign painter” that bring to mind the delectably unlikely influence of “Edward Scissorhands.” Who knew little green balls of goo could be so creepy?


Coming Friday: The most disappointing videogames of 2008

Coming Monday morning: The fifth best videogame(s) of 2008

Coming tomorrow: Christmas.

Wii Soars, PS3 bombs, as the industry slows: November sales

It was a good November for Nintendo and Epic/Microsoft Game Studios, but a bad one for the industry, especially Sony and, to lesser extent, the makers of "Guitar Hero" and "Rock Band."

The latest sales data from NPD shows overall sales growth was 10%, which in the midst of a recession is pretty good, but is still down a LOT from last year. That shows the videogame biz is hurting, on a comparative basis, just like pretty much every other sector.

Ps3NPD points out that this November had seven fewer post-Thanksgiving shopping days than last on its calendar, which is a fair point. But even still, the growth rates are down by such a huge amount that that can't explain the whole difference. Total growth, for instance, plunged from 52% to 10%. Hardware sales growth fell from 41% to 10%, which is somewhat expected since we're now later in the console cycle. But software sales growth plunged from 62% to 11%, which isn't what you'd expect. Seems like software sales should be further increasing now that the console install base is so much bigger.

Without a doubt the company in the most trouble is Sony. Forget about declining growth rates. Playstation 3 sales were actually down 19% in absolute terms from November 2007. Considering that Sony has some very high profile exclusive games out in the past two months, like "LittleBigPlanet" and "Resistance 2," that's downright disastrous. Looks like people just aren't willing to pay $400 for a videogame console right now. (PSP sales were down an even worse 26%, but at least that has the excuse of launching 3.5 years ago, not two).

Also suffering are "Guitar Hero" and "Rock Band." 1.5 million "Guitar Hero: World Tour" units have been sold so far this year by Activision, off 55% from "Guitar Hero III" at the same moment in 2007. "Rock Band 2" has sold 809,000 units for MTV and EA. It's tough to compare to last year, since this sequel launched in September, but only for 360, and the original launched last year in late November for 360 and PS3 and added PS2 in December. But consider this: Last November Rock Band sold 382,000 units on its Ghwt two launch consoles, followed by 463,000 in December for 360 alone, for a total of 845,000. December's always the biggest month, of course, but one week for two consoles and one month for one, compared to a month on one console and a month and a half on two sounds like a more than fair comparison. And "Rock Band 2" is losing to the original.

I'm almost as confused as you are, so here's a cleaner stat: According to UBS analyst Ben Schachter, combined "Guitar Hero" and "Rock Band" revenue was down 12% in November from last year. And keep in mind that the "Guitar Hero: World Tour" band kit costs $100 more than the highest priced version of "Guitar Hero III."

"Gears of War 2" had a huge month, as expected, though. And "Call of Duty: World at War" launched almost exactly even with "Call of Duty: Modern Warfare," a start that Activision has to be very happy with. The only new original game in the top 10 for November was "Left 4 Dead," which debuted with a strong 410,000 units. Wiifit

There is one other company I'm forgetting... Oh yea, Nintendo. It seems that recessions don't impact them. I'm not even sure if the law of gravity is in effect at Nintendo HQ. Thanks to more supply and growing demand, Wii sales more than doubled to 2 million last month, the biggest ever for any console outside of December. No doubt Nintendo will break that record next month. Meanwhile, two of its games continue to show what the movie business calls "legs." "Wii Fit" was no. 4 and "Mario Kart" no. 5 six and seven months after their debut, respectively (I'll exclude "Wii Play" because of the free controller issue). Every other new game seems to come and go from the top 10 quickly, but "Fit" and "Mario Kart" keep being snatched up by all those new Wii buyers. Even the much maligned "Wii Music" came back from a weak October launch to sell a solid 297,000 units in its debut.

Notable new games that sold less than that -- though I can't tell by how much and so it's hard to evaluate whether they're bombs or just not quite big enough -- include "Quantum of Solace," "Tomb Raider: Underworld," and "Mortal Kombat vs. DC." There's also "Mirror's Edge," but we already know that one is a bomb.

Here's the complete set of NPD November data. At the suggestion of a smart reader, I've added release dates, so you can fairly compare games that came out earlier or later in the month. I've also added percentage growth from last November for each console, just because I think it's interesting.

Game                      Console     Publisher     Units sold in Nov.  Release date

Gears of War 2         360           Microsoft       1.56 million        Nov. 7

Call of Duty 5            360           Activision      1.41 million       Nov. 10

Wii Play                    Wii           Nintendo        796,000            Feb 12, 2007
Wii Fit                      Wii           Nintendo        697,000            May 19
Mario Kart                Wii            Nintendo        637,000            April 27
Call of Duty 5            PS2           Activision       597,000            Nov. 10
Guitar Hero: WT       Wii           Activision       475,000            Oct. 26
Left 4 Dead              360           EA                  410,000            Nov. 18
Resistance 2            PS3           Sony               435,000             Nov. 4
Wii Music                PS3            Nintendo        297,000            Oct. 20

Console       Nov. unit sales  Growth from Nov. 2007       Lifetime-to-date
Wii              2.04 million                108%                           15.5 million
DS               1.57 million                 3%                              24.6 million
360             836,000                       9%                              12.5 million
PSP             421,000                      -26%                           13.2 million
PS3             378,000                      -19%                            6.1 million

Category             Nov. revenue   Change  Year-to-date revenue  Change
Total industry     $2.91 billion        10%       $16.04 billion             22%
Hardware           $1.21 billion        10%       $5.93 billion               14%
Software            $1.45 billion        11%       $8.21 billion               31%
Accessories        $255 million         7%        $1.91 billion               17%

Resistance 2: Awesome multi-player, miserable solo campaign

Variety critic Tom Chick is of two minds about "Resistance 2." The multi-player modes are "massive, deep and accessible," he writes in his review. But the solo campaign? "For those who play alone, 'Resistance 2' is simply a bad shooter."

Res2Fundamentally, it seems Sony hasn't quite gotten the "Gears" or "Halo" size action franchise it wants. Tom calls the story "a confused amalgam of alien invasion, alternate history and zombie motifs" and the level design "relentlessly linear and contrived, stocked with cheap 'gotcha!' deaths to pad playing time." The visuals? "[L]argely disappointing and occasionally downright lazy, such as an alien base that seems to have been created out of leftover artwork from 'Halo.'"

But that 60 person multi-player? "The connections are smooth, the servers are always busy, and the gameplay is accessible for rookies." And Tom says online co-op is the best part: "On each map, a series of objectives is dynamically generated by the game to keep teams on task: Disarm a bomb, for instance, then clear a room of monsters, then press a switch. Or do the same tasks in reverse order. It's all simple and mostly mindless, but because it's shuffled up and randomly fitted together, it doesn't feel like the grind it actually is."

You can read Tom Chick's full review of "Resistance 2" right here.

LittleBigPlanet... A new-fashioned type of game with an old-fashioned business model

As anyone who has read my "LittleBigPlanet" review knows, I'm particularly intrigued by how the community will develop. This game is ultimately a platform and it's going to live and die by the quality of the content people upload and how well it's shared and popularized. Yes the graphics are jaw dropping and the pre-made levels in the story mode are pretty good, but anybody who buys the game just for that will end up disappointed. "LittleBigPlanet's" future lies in the community and, just as with most content communities, the vast majority of people will primarily be consumers, not providers.

Lbp The obvious model is YouTube, of course. It's a hugely successful platform on which the vast majority of people are consumers, a relatively small number are producers, and a very small minority produce videos that become remotely popular (let's ignore all the pirated stuff). And just as with LittleBigPlanet, YouTube is dependent on tags, user ratings, and sharing mechanisms. Way more people watch YouTube videos because they're e-mailed by a friend or linked/embedded on a blog than go to youtube.com and just browse.

However there's a huge difference between "LittleBigPlanet" and YouTube -- to experience "LittleBigPlanet," you have to buy in. That means purchasing the $60 game, even if you won't be extensively using the level building tools that go into that cost and, if you don't already have one, spending $400 on a Playstation 3. It's kind of the equivalent of saying that if you want to watch a YouTube video, you have to own a Gateway computer and video editing software. Now mind you, this isn't a criticism of Sony (contrary to what some people who read my review thought). It's in the business of selling games and consoles, not enabling people to share content and then trying to figure out how to monetize it later.

The end result, though, is that people have to really want to be a part of the "LittleBigPlanet" community. I would wager many active YouTube producers and consumers initially found the site because they checked out a single video. The barriers to doing so are zilch, so why the hell not?
Lbp1
But if you want to try out an awesome "LittleBigPlanet" level that everyone's talking about? Well, you have to own the game and a PS3. Which means most people won't be able to check it out. Which means it's much, much harder for the "LBP" community to grow organically than YouTube did.

I'm not saying this means "LittleBigPlanet" will be a failure. Not by a long shot. But it has a big barrier to overcome. Of course, there are steps Sony can take to try and ameliorate the problem. An easy one would be to regularly make interesting "LBP" levels available for free via the Playstation Network to tempt every PS3 owner into getting the game. A much harder one technically, I assume, would be to find some way to distribute "LittleBigPlanet" levels via the Web. Maybe translating them into Flash? I can't imagine it would be easy, or cheap, but it's the only way to make "LittleBigPlanet" levels viral the way that popular YouTube videos are.

Right now, Sony has a powerful user-generated platform on its hands, but is stuck with the business model of an old-fashioned videogame. It's not a great match.

Returning soon... Out latest reviews

Apologies for my absence since early last week. Many of you probably know that this is one of, it not the, busiest weeks of the year for videogame reviews, so I've been absolutely buried with writing and editing reviews, as well a tracking down a big story that I think you'll all find really interesting when it's done in a few days, plus other assorted things.

I have a few really good (I think) forthcoming posts that I hope to start writing by tomorrow. Meanwhile, rather than fall endlessly behind, here are links and very short summaries to some of our recent reviews in Variety. I'd call particular attention to "Fable 2," which has a very good shot to be my favorite game of 2008:

Fable 2: "No interactive world has ever felt quite so alive," says Variety's pretentious twit of a videogame blogger. "Deep, accessible and endlessly adaptive, it's a boundary-pushing experience."

Far Cry 2: Chris Dahlen, in his first review for Variety, calls this action sequel "stunningly beautiful and morrally harrowing," but "plodding in its execution."

Midnight Club: Los Angeles: "Detailed beyond most players' interests," writes Leigh Alexander, "the game still manages to be broadly accessible thanks to simple controls, a smooth mission structure, and jaw-droppingly stunning graphics."

LittleBigPlanet: Above referenced pretentious twit describes it as "[A]n exercise is anti-immersion, attracting even the most casual player to its irresistibly adorable cartoon world, then slowly pulling back the facade until they're left with a blank canvas."

Rock Revolution: "Overly complex where it should be simple and soulless where it should be rich," says Leigh.

Playstation Home launching Oct. 24?

Apartment_deck Just back from a demo of Playstation Home with Jack Buser, director of the service for Sony Computer Entertainment America.

As most of you probably know, Home is the "Second Life" 3-D world Sony is developing to help its members socialize, discover new content and services, and, of course, trump Microsoft's currently superior online gaming platform Xbox Live.

Sony hasn't announced a launch date for Home, which is in private beta. Buser would only say it will be this fall. But then as we were checking out the new space in "Home" devoted to Sony's game "Uncharted" we noticed that the code to get in one of the locked doors is "1024." And Buser added that the number comes from the front of the apartment buildings where Home users have their "personal space." "But who knows what it means?" he added (I'm paraphrasing).

Gee, what could the number 1024 mean in an online service that doesn't have a launch date beyond "fall?" Let's think really hard about this one...

As someone who's not in the beta (I don't have a retail PS3 and just got my debug unit a few weeks ago literally) I hadn't seen much of Home before and I'd say I was pretty impressed. It certainly looks better than any virtual worlds on PCs that I have seen and it appears to be very easy to navigate. There's a fair amount of stuff to do, from playing casual games to watching trailers to getting in dance contests, all of which are centered on the idea of making and maintaining social connections. That's something that isn't really possible on Xbox Live (unless your idea of making friends is trading variations on the N-word while playing "Halo 3").

Bowling_2 Of course, I and many other gamers mostly use XBL and PSN to play with friends we already know. Do we really want to spend the time poking around a virtual world and meeting new people? I don't right now, but maybe I will when it's easy and fun. That's the open question about Home, I suppose.

I also personally liked the fact that the avatars are realistic looking humans, rather than cartoonish caricatures like on the Wii and, it appears, the soon-to-launch update for Xbox Live. Buser said you can deck out your avatar in costumes from your favorite games, which seems like a good way to express yourself but not look like a kids' cartoon character. (Personally I want the ability to dress like the prince from Katamari and roll up other users into a giant ball, but I doubt that will be possible.)

If Home takes off at all, the possibilities for traditional entertainment companies seem substantial. Xbox gamer are already spending money just to get some jpgs of "South Park" or "Family Guy" characters to use for backgrounds and their gamer pic. Imagine how much more excited they would get to deck out a whole virtual apartment in "South Park" gear or dress their avatar like Kenny. Not to mention the possibility to show trailers for upcoming movies, set up a "space" with all sorts of information about the "Dark Knight" DVD release, etc. etc. And of course you could even pay to download and watch a movie in Home with a bunch of virtual friends. In the battle to give Hollywood a platform to deliver content and advertising to the elusive gamer aud, Sony may be getting a leg up.

Update: Joystiq reports from the Tokyo Game Show that Sony indicated Home will go into public beta (rather than the private beta it is currently in) "later this month" in Japan. And presumably the same here in other territories. Which could be what the 1024 means (public beta launch on Oct. 24) instead of a full blown debut.

Brett Ratner and God of War: Old news

KratosThe blogs and videogame "news" sites are all reporting that Brett Ratner is directing Universal's "God of War" movie (here, here, here and here, for instance). Which is true... and old news.

Variety first reported this news way back on Aug. 11 and I even repeated it here on The Cut Scene on Aug. 28. It's not a huge deal, but reporting something as fresh when someone else reported it months ago isn't really the coolest thing for journalists to do.

Plus, consider this some minor self-cheerleading that I think Variety deserves for doing good original reporting way ahead of the pack.

(Had some additional comments that were a little snippy about other videogame journalists in here that I've since cut after reflecting on the fact that... well, they were a little snippy.)

Siren: Blood Curse: Solid game, bad delivery

As a horror game, Variety critic Leigh Alexander is fairly happy with Sony's new "Siren: Blood Curse":

"Siren" is still dread-inducingly terrifying, due in large part to the lack of combat. The game de-emphasizes fighting in favor of running and hiding, and the objective of each episode is usually to avoid enemies and safely reach a certain destination. The "sightjack"Sirenbloodcurse_sc002_2 system lets players steal the shibito's point of view so they can see their own hiding place from the enemy's eyes as he slowly shambles toward it in the dark, weapon in hand. The result is sheer terror as players try to find an escape route before it's too late.

Though a fear-enhancer for sure, the sightjack system will likely feel fussy and tedious to all but the most hardcore survival-horror fans. Most players will wish they could just look around to find out where their enemies are. Success in an episode usually relies upon experimentation, through several frustrating deaths, to learn the precise pattern in which an area should be traversed.

But she has one major problem: It's not available on a Blu-ray disc, like most Playstation 3 games. Instead, you can only download it. And that, she writes, is a major pain in the you-know-what:

Sony's decision to deliver this game as a series of downloadable episodes is a frustrating head-scratcher, as the process of installing each of the 12 episodes on a Playstation 3 in two hour chunks -- even longer than it takes to play them -- is its own terror. Sales are likely to suffer as gamers endure agonizing waits and wonder why they can't just walk down to their local GameStop and buy the damned thing.

It sounds like Sony is using "Siren" as a way to promote digital delivery of games bigger than your standard little casual title. Perhaps our broadband pipes and our hard drives just aren't ready for that yet.

You can read Leigh's entire review here.

Rock Band hits 18 million downloads and other interesting financial stats

Today brought earnings from Viacom (owner of MTV, owner of Harmonix), Electronic ArtsSony, and United Business Media (owner of the Game Developers Conference). If you're interested in all the fun details, just click on those names and you can read Variety's entire story (except for UBM, which we don't cover).

But I thought it would be worthwhile to note a few interesting little details from those earnings for Cut Scene readers:

-Viacom says "Rock Band" has now sold 18 million track downloads. That's up from 15 million as of June 30, which means it has sold 3 million in the past month alone.

-Sony's videogame unit is finally in the black with PS3 sales and PSP sales growing and costs for PS3 production falling. Most impressive, however, was PS3 software sales. During the quarter Sony sold 22.3 million game copies, up from just 4.2 million in the same quarter last year.

Boom_blox_medieval1_2 -There was no mention of "Boom Blox" sales in Electronic Arts' earnings announcement. Though it touted 1.6 million units of "Battlefield: Bad Company" sold and said "UEFA Euro 2008" had a strong launch, EA didn't say anything about "Boom Blox" sales or even tout its good reviews. In a recent interview with John Riccitiello, he said that the game performed as expected and should sell solidly well into the holidays, but it doesn't seem like a strong vote of confidence to not even mention the game when touting achievements during the quarter. (See update below for more info)

-United Business Media, the conglomerate that owns and operates the Game Developers Conference, said GDC revenue was up 16% this year, which certainly fits with the packed feeling at the show and the general sense I and others have that that it's on the rise while E3 is on the decline.

Update: According to GameDaily, I missed in EA's conference call where they said "Boom Blox" has sold 450,000 units so far, which is a perfectly respectable first couple of months for a Wii-exclusive original game. So ignore my somewhat dire analysis above.

Sony launches Playstation 3 video store with most of Hollywood on board

As expected, Sony finally launched its video download store on Tuesday after announcing it at its E3 press conference. But despite the fact that as of just a few weeks ago it didn't have many studios on board, it has wrapped up thsoe deals quickly.

Every major studio is now renting and/or selling movie downloads via Playstation network except for Universal (which, ironically, just signed onto Xbox Live on Monday). Currently Fox is the only TV network on board though, leaving Sony far behind Microsoft in TV content, though pretty even in movies.

As I reported earlier, film downloads to the Playstation 3 will be transferable to the PSP (the transfer can also be done from a PC to PSP). That's a possible competitive advantage over Xbox Live and it's also a new feature for Internet downloads that, studio insiders say, made these deals more complex than they otherwise would have been.

More details are in my story on today's E3 developments.

PS3 video downloads finally really truly definitely happening

Sony's been talking about launching video downloads on Playstation 3 since even before the console launched (I http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117951896.html?categoryid=20&cs=1&query=pandora in the fall of '06). By last year, I reported that it was in the works. In April, the LA Times confirmed that it was still happening and said a summer launch is likely.

Now today, Hirai reportedly said at a press conference in Tokyo that the PS3 video download store isPs3_2 launching in the US this summer and will include rentals of standard def and hi-def movies. So now it's really truly absolutely officially happening.

Of course, Xbox Live has had video downloads for over a year, and everyone I talk to in Hollywood says they're quite successful. At a minimum, Sony has to match the features of that service and it appears from the GameSpot story that they will. The one advantage the PS3 will have, however, is films from Sony Pictures, which for understandable reasons hasn't participated in the Xbox Live Video Marketplace.

But will Sony just be playing catch-up while Microsoft takes another step forward by finally unveiling its partnership with Netflix? Or will Sony offer some features that Xbox Live doesn't have? Either way, this may not be an area where being on the cutting edge matters is crucial, since nobody is buying a videogame console for the sake of downloading movies. It's just a nice added feature, and a nice added revenue stream for the console manufacturer.

Update: I'm actually doing some more reporting on this right now and finding out some interesting details about how the PS3 video service could be different than Xbox Live. More to come before the end of of the day.

NPD April 2008: GTA IV huge (duh), Xbox 360 and PS3 lag (huh?)

No wonder Microsoft made a big deal yesterday of announcing that Xbox 360 is the first console to reach 10 million units in the U.S.

The folks there undoubtedly knew that today's NPD numbers would be pretty dismal. Not that they're any better for Sony. Neither console maker got any visible bump from the debut of "Grand Theft Auto IV" in April. Xbox 360 sales were down 28% from March to 188,000. PS3 sales fell 27% to 187,000.

Everyone expected that both console makers would benefit, of course. The theory is that lots of people haven't made the switch to PS3 or 360 yet, but would do so with a hugely popular game like "GTA IV" to motivate them. But while Rockstar sold 1.85 million units in the first five days on sale, almost everybody who bought one appears to already own a 360 or PS3.

By contrast, Wii sales were virtually flat at 714,000, as Nintendo moved from one big hit ("Super Smash Bros. Brawl") to another ("Mario Kart Wii"). Nothing can slow down that Wii mojo, it seems.

Of course it's possible that the early "GTA IV" buyers already have a 360 or PS3 but those who are buying it in May are more likely to be buying a console, but that's not what anybody expected. When "Halo 3" debuted in September with 12 days left on the NPD calendar, 360 sales nearly doubled from August.

It's bad news for Microsoft and Sony and calls into question whether they're already close to tapping out the audience of people willing to pay $350 or $400 for a console, no matter how good the games are.

Also worth noting are the videogames that launched in April and didn't even manage to sell the 141,000 units necessary to break into NPD's top 10. Those include THQ's ``Battle of the Bands,'' Midway's ``NBA Ballers: Chosen One,'' and D3's ``Dark Sector.''

I'll provide a link to my full Daily Variety story as soon as it's available (Hey, here it is!). Meanwhile, make what you will of the month's raw data:

Top 10 games                       Platform    Publisher    Units sold in April
1. Grand Theft Auto IV            360          Rockstar   1.85 million
2. Mario Kart Wii                    Wii          Nintendo   1.12 million
3. Grand Theft Auto IV            PS3         Rockstar    1 million
4. Wii Play                              Wii         Nintendo   360,000
5. Super Smash Bros. Brawl     Wii          Nintendo   326,000
6. Gran Turismo 5: Prologue    PS3         Sony          224,000
7. Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: DS           Nintendo    202,000
    Explorers of Darkness
8. Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: DS           Nintendo    202,000
    Explorers of Time
9. Guitar Hero III                    Wii         Activision   152,000
10. Call of Duty 4                    360         Activision   141,000

Hardware sales      April          Lifetime-to-date
Wii                        714,200       9.6 million
DS                         414,800       19.6 million
PSP                       192,700       11.4 million
Xbox 360               188,000       10.1 million
Playstation 3          187,100       4.3 M
Playstation 2          124,400      ?

                                 April 2008     Change from April 2007   Year-to-date     Change from 2007
Total Videogames        $1.23 B                  47%                         $5.47 B              31%
Hardware                    $426.2 M                26%                         $1.84 B              13%
Software                     $654.7 M                68%                         $2.88 B              46%
Accessories                 $154 M                   39%                         $750.6 M            29%                

(This post has been updated since I spent a little more time going through the data)

Stats worth pondering from Microsoft, Vivendi, Sony

-Sorry Microsoft, but announcing today that you are the first current-gen console to sell 10 million units in the U.S. isn't much to celebrate. As of March, Nintendo has sold 8.8 million Wii's. And it launched a whole year after you guys. Which means it's a safe bet Wii sales will surpass those of the 360 by later this year despite a one-year disadvantage.

As for Xbox Live global membership of over 12 million... that's impressive, but we have no idea how many of those are paying "gold" members who play online and how many are just "silver" members who ocassionally log onto download an XBLA title or something. So, while Microsoft is still obviously was ahead of its competition in online gaming, it's tough to know what to make of that stat.

-Want a reminder of why when Activision merges with Vivendi Games, the combined company is going to be called Activision Blizzard? And why every title from Sierra (let alone Vivendi Mobile and Sierra Online) has to justify its existence to Activision?

Vivendi just released its first quarter earnings (Variety story here), during which 87% of the total revenue for the game division came from Blizzard. And that's without any new releases. So it's basically just "Warcraft" subscriptions and new buyers.

-Despite significant Playtstation 3 growth, Sony is predicting reductions in its game division as the Playstation 2, eight years after it launched, finally fades into obscurity (Variety story on Sony earnings here). But after a fiscal year (ending March 31) in which Sony Computer Entertainment lost $1.2 billion (a $1 billion improvement over last fiscal year), profits will finally rise as software sales keep growing and the loss per-hardware units falls.

In other words, it'll probably be a while until SCE grows revenue again due to the decline of the PS2, but the PS3 is on the verge of no longer being a black hole for profits.

Speed Racer, Echochrome, more reviews debate to enjoy while I'm prepping a huge story

Sorry for the relative quiet, but I'm working on a really big story that will be going online. Trust me, this is the kind of thing Variety does best. You guys will be grateful I put the time into it. Plus there will be aSpeedracer related interview with one of the big names involved available exclusively here on The Cut Scene.

Meanwhile, here are some things to enjoy...

-Brian Crecente review Warner Bros.' "Speed Racer" videogame for Variety. He says it's a viscerally fun racing title for the Wii, but doesn't have much of the movie/TV show's personality.

Echochrome -Tom Chick reviews "Echochrome" for Variety. He loves how the game flips the perspective that players are used to, but finds that playing it for too long is frustrating and, quite literally, headache inducing.

-On MTV's Multilayer blog, Stephen Totilo asks whether critics have to "finish" a game in order to write a fair review and includes some questions about me and my "GTA IV" review.

Echochrome's coming... How to consume it?

Echochrome I agree with Newsweek's N'Gai Croal: Out of all the fast-paced, hi-def, blow-you-away extravangazas I saw at E3 last year, the game that really stuck in my mind -- even though I only saw a brief preview -- was Sony's "Echochrome." In the "critic's notebook" (how pretentious is that?) I wrote at the end of E3, I said it was the best game that Sony showed. But in highlight -- no matter how great "Rock Band" turned out to be -- "Echochrome" is the one that's still stuck in my brain.

It reminds me of "Portal" -- a radically different gameplay experience that emphasizes innovation and simplicity. Of course I can't say whether it's ultimately as innovative or well designed and written as "Portal," but it sure has the potential to blow gamers' minds.

As such, I  recommend N'Gai's post on Level Up about how to play "Echochrome" -- it's such a modestly paced game that it may not be the kind of thing gamers can sit down and play for a few hours. Is it a good appetizer? Palate cleanser? Can it be a main course? It's an interesting question.

Even for him, though, the verdict is "incomplete." And he has a "near complete build." The rest of us have to wait until its hits the Playstation Store soon.

Sony Online Entertainment finds a new daddy who understands it

Soe_large_jpg_jpgcopy_2 As I wrote in today's Daily Variety, Sony Online Entertainment's departure from Sony Pictures over to Sony Computer Entertainment is not really about the obvious logic of the move. It has to do with corporate shifts at SPE -- particularly all the changes in the Sony PIctures Digital division, which oversaw SOE. SPD's head, Yair Landau, a longtime champion of SOE, is leaving and Sony is trying to sell SPD's biggest asset - the Imageworks visual effects house. (And yes, the combination of SPE, SOE, SPD, and constant repetition of "Sony" makes that the most confusing paragraph I have ever written in my life.)

Nonetheless, it seems like a very good thing for SOE, the MMO expert most famous for "Everquest" that also operates "Star Wars Galaxies" and has made / is making dozens of other titles, most of which are meant to be played with other people online.

Most notable is the fact that SOE has engaged in virtually no collaboration with the rest of Sony Pictures for its entire existence. In recent years, however, it has worked increasingly closely with SCE, from building the infrastructure for the Playstation Network to publishing PS3 games like "Untold Legends: Dark Kingdom" (OK, they're not always good) and PSP titles like "Field Commander." It's big upcoming MMO "The Agency" is being developed simultaneously for PC and PS3.

So aligning it with the part of Sony that actually, you know, makes videogames, is a pretty "duh" move. I'm sure that reporting to Kaz Hirai will be a welcome move for SOE's head John Smedley (aka "Smed"). Especially now that Landau, the only senior executive at Sony Pictures who knows much about videogames, is gone. SOE's experience staying at SPE after his departure would probably have been the corporate equivalent of being a red-headed, disabled, gay stepchild.

God of War Chains of Olympus: Tried-and-true becomes a bit tired-and-true

Godwar Tom Chick has a review of "God of War: Chains of Olympus" in today's Daily Variety and he's definitely not as kind as most other critics seem to be.  He definitely doesn't hate it, but he finds the formula is getting a bit tired and is certainly not improved by going handheld:

“Chains of Olympus” is a short game and there’s not a lot of variety to encourage replay. The previous games offered a nice spread of weapons and magical abilities, but this one has a pared down feel, with only two weapons and three spells. The only new weapon is actually pretty silly: Kratos dons an oversized glove that looks like something a football fan would wave from high up in the bleachers. There’s not much variety in the different enemies, many of whom are carryovers from the previous games. There are a couple of memorable set pieces, leading to a dull final level and a disappointing climactic fight.

You can read Tom's entire review here.

Patapon: The rare PSP game that thinks completely outside the box

Patapon

It looks like everyone who reviewed "Patapon" really liked it or loved it (see here and here). Put Variety's Brian Crecente in the latter category. Words like "captivating," "fresh," and "original" all show up in his rave review, which notes how many weak ports there have been on the PSP and what a welcome change "Patapon" is. Of course the first PSP game to totally think outside the box as "Loco Roco," from the same development team at SCE, but Brian notes that unlike that game, "Patapon" "adds a level of depth to the wackiness that should take it beyond cult favorite status."

Here's the first paragraph of his Variety review:

The PSP’s status as the most powerful handheld gaming system on the market has somewhat backfired for Sony, resulting in a slew of derivative titles that feel like inferior spinoffs from those on a traditional console. “Patapon” is the rare PSP game that thinks completely outside the box, creating a fresh and original experience. Though it’s an obvious successor to 2006’s “Loco Roco,” a similarly creative rhythm game from the same development team at Sony, “Patapon” adds a level of depth to the wackiness that should take it beyond cult favorite status.

You can read the whole thing by clicking here.

Blu-ray's victory and the Playstation 3

There have been many skeptics, myself included about Sony's decision to make every Playstation 3 a Blu-ray player. That added significantly to the console's production cost and it's disastrous $600 launch price, a major factor in stalled sales for the first year. And there wasn't much advantage on the gameBluray side. Despite Sony's claims, I haven't seen evidence that the higher data capacity of Blu-ray discs translated into better looking or playing games.

But today it's official: Blu-ray has vanquished HD DVD in the hi-def format war. Which means the now $400 Playstation 3 is one of the cheapest players for the only way to play hi-def DVDs. Combine that with a decent and growing slate of games and you've got a good value. Indeed, if you want to watch hi def movies at home, it's hard to imagine now why you wouldn't get a Playstation 3, unless the cost of stand-alone players starts  dropping or you just don't want videogames in your house. It's certainly already become a topic of conversation for my non-PS3-owning friends and is making me think it may finally be time to get one myself.

The question for Sony is how do they market it? Execs have made clear that their short-term goal is to establish the PS3 as a successful videogame console, something they didn't accomplish in its first year. Adding its capabilities as a Blu-ray player certainly muddles the marketing message and makes Sony Computer Entertainment look like they don't have confidence in it as a console.

On the other hand, Blu-ray is heading into the rest of 2008 with significant momentum and SCE would be crazy not to try and take advantage. It will be very interesting to see how Kaz Hirai and company try to cash in on that while still doing the work they need to do on the videogame front. It's a tricky balance.

As for Microsoft, now that it will be dropping its HD DVD add-on player for the Xbox 360 and writing off the millions it wasted supporting HD DVD, it has two options to mull:

-Start selling a Blu-ray add-on and pay a licensing fee to its biggest competitor for every unit sold

-Give up on hi-def DVDs and focus exlclusively on hi-def downloads through Xbox Live



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About

Chris Morris reports on the business and culture of video games and offers analysis of recent events and industry trends.
Tips and feedback are encouraged at chris.r.morris-at-gmail-com




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