Disney's "High School Musical 2" had an opening week of 615,000 in sales and it could very well hit 3.5 million in sales by the end of the year.
Using the sales pattern of Disney's "Hannah Montana 2 (Soundtrack)/Meet Miley Cyrus" disc, and accounting for a holiday season boost and the inevitable "deluxe package," it is highly likely that Disney will have two or three of the 10 best-sellers of the year.(Rascal Flatts has a release slated for Sept. 25; "Hannah Montana 2" should easily top 2 million in sales this year).
"Hannah 2," released June 26, experienced a 42% drop-off in its second week, a 32% dip in the third and 12% dip in the fourth. It has held steady at about 30%-35% of its opening week number over the last several weeks.
"HSM2," by that logic, should pass the 1 million sold mark next week and then take about five sales weeks to lock in another million.
By that point the disc will be swimming in a sea of high profile releases and will likely taper off in high five digit sales for half of October and most of November. Just before Thanksgiving will be the three-month mark, just about time for Disney to come in with deluxe edition that will certainly spike sales.
The original "High School Musical" opened during the worst sales period of the year (January) with a first week tally of 16,000. Once it sold 97,000, the disc affixed itself to the top 10 and was able to compete with all-comers as the year wore, selling upwards of 200,000 to stay in the upper reaches of the chart.