Mariah Carey is again banking on a mid-April release date for an album, in this case "E=MC2" which will be released on tax day. It's the same week she released her "Emancipation of Mimi," the album that made the world forget about her breakdowns, "Glitter" and divorces (from Tommy Mottola, Columbia Records and EMI).
Sure "Mimi" topped 5 million in sales in the U.S. and she returned to playing arenas, but it was also three years ago. The RIAA was not even two years into filing lawsuits against music fans with computers.
Mariah is a breed apart and she looks like one of the industry's few superstars capable of still posting significant sales numbers. But will she feel the pinch in a manner similar to other star acts?
Carey sold 404,000 copies of "Mimi" in its first week after its April 12, 2005 release, which one would think is not the best day to make an album available. A year later, the majors even avoided the April 15 week.
Last year, RCA mailed their returns and issued Avril Lavigne's "The Best Damn Thing," getting a return of 286,000 sold. That was only 75% of the 381,000 that her previous album, "Under My Skin," sold in its debut session.
The question becomes: Can Mariah do what few other artists can do, post similar or better sales marks with the follow up a multi-million seller? Kanye West and Carrie Underwood are about the only recent additions to that list.
Not that we know anything about math, but it seemed like a good exercise to create an over/under just like the oddsmakers in Vegas. Initial inclination is to set the number at 303,000 - 75% of the sales of her last disc - but that seems a little low, especially considering the way she has handled herself over the last couple of years.
As a bonus, it looks like she won't have much competition among new releases; right now, she is only up against week two of Leona Lewis's debut.
"Mimi" probably set a mark that n;t be topped but she could come close if the first single "Touch My Body" does well at radio and online. (It was released Tuesday). If "Touch" shoots into the top 10 and lingers there, I would put the line at 365,000. If the single stalls, that o/u will drop to 320K or so.
By the way, what's with the title? "E=MC²"? Not to be catty, but perhaps she should realize Einstein had to live 50 years after devising the theory of relativity, never coming close to topping it. "Butterfly," anyone?   
And considering the title of the first single, “Touch My Body,” it's surprising she didn't call the album "C5H11ONO."