Guilds to the gills: Who's in top shape for Oscar best picture?

With the DGA weighing in today, I decided to take a look at which films had the strongest guild support heading into Thursday's Oscar nominations.

And then I realized it was no defense against the Academy surprise.

I devised a decidedly unscientific system in which each film would get two points for a Producers Guild, Directors Guild or Screen Actors Guild ensemble nomination. (No slight intended to the scribes, but I decided that with the dual adapted/original categories, I'd leave them and the individual SAG nominees with a single point.)

Tallying it all up, it would appear that "Lincoln," "Silver Linings Playbook," "Argo," "Les Miserables," "Zero Dark Thirty" and "Life of Pi" are in great shape -- not surprsingly -- with "The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel," "Moonrise Kingdom" and "Skyfall" positioned nicely if there are nine nominations.

Fighting for a potential 10th best picture nomination would be "Beasts of the Southern Wild," "Django Unchained," "Flight," "The Master" and "The Sessions." Perhaps the edge should go to "Django," which seemed to be left out of the SAG nominations because of its screening pattern.

Rank		Film	PGA	DGA	WGA	SAG ensemble	SAG individual	Noms	Points
1.		Lincoln	x	x	adapted	x	Day-Lewis/Jones/Field	7	10
2t.		Argo	x	x	adapted	x	Arkin	5	8
2t.	Les	Miserables	x	x		x	Jackman/Hathaway	5	8
2t.		Silver Linings Playbook	x		adapted	x	Cooper/Lawrence/De Niro	6	8
5.		Zero Dark Thirty	x	x	original		Chastain	4	6
6		Life of Pi	x	x	adapted			3	5
7t.	The	Best Exotic Marigold Hotel				x	Smith	2	3
7t.		Moonrise Kingdom	x		original			2	3
7t.		Skyfall	x				Bardem	2	3
10t.		Beasts of the Southern Wild	x					1	2
10t.		Django Unchained	x					1	2
10t.		Flight			original		Washington	2	2
10t.	The	Master			original		Hoffman	2	2
10t.	The	Sessions					Hawkes/Hunt	2	2
15t.		Hitchcock					Mirren	1	1
15t.	The	Impossible					Watts	1	1
15t.		Looper			original			1	1
15t.	The	Paperboy					Kidman	1	1
15t.	The	Perks of Being a Wallflower			adapted			1	1
15t.		Rust and Bone					Cotillard	1	1

Seems logical enough, right? But stay prepared for surprises. If we ran the same system last year, this is what would have happened:

Rank		Film	PGA	DGA	WGA	SAG ensemble	SAG individual	Noms	Points	Best Pic
1t.	The	Artist	x	x		x	Dujardin/Bejo	5	8	BP
1t.	The	Descendants	x	x	adapted	x	Clooney	5	8	BP
1t.	The	Help	x		adapted	x	Davis/Spencer/Chastain	6	8	BP
4		Midnight in Paris	x	x	original	x		4	7	BP
5		Bridesmaids	x		original	x	McCarthy	4	6
6t.	The	Girl with the Dragon Tattoo	x	x	adapted			3	5
6t.		Hugo	x	x	adapted			3	5	BP
6t.		Moneyball	x		adapted		Pitt/Hill	4	5	BP
9t.		Albert Nobbs					Close/McTeer	2	2
9t.	The	Ides of March	x					1	2
9t.		J. Edgar					DiCaprio/Hammer	2	2
9t.		My Week with Marilyn					Branagh/Williams	2	2
9t.		War Horse	x					1	2	BP
14t.		50/50			original			1	1
14t.		Beginners					Plummer	1	1
14t.	A	Better Life					Bichir	1	1
14t.	The	Iron Lady					Streep	1	1
14t.		Warrior					Nolte	1	1
14t.		We Need To Talk About Kevin					Swinton	1	1
14t.		Win Win			original			1	1
14t.		Young Adult			original			1	1
		Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close						0	0	BP
	The	Tree of Life						0	0	BP

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences, ultimately, is its own beast.

Guilds to the gills: Who's in top shape for Oscar best picture?

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