Oscar Watch: Gurus 'O Gold Vote Actor Categories

As revealed by the Gurus 'O Gold voting, the Best Actor race has four likely candidates and a wide-open fifth slot. (No one has seen Charlie Wilson's War.)

This gives some of the indies a shot at doing what ThinkFilm did with Half Nelson and Ryan Gosling last year. But can Lars and the Real Girl's Gosling rise above the ignominy of losing a role in Peter Jackson's The Lovely Bones? (He has confirmed my hunch that he left because he was not comfortable playing the 30-something father of a 12-year-old.) Finally it was better for him to drop out of a movie that he might not be good in than staying and playing the role. Gosling has many fine roles ahead of him.

Will Philip Seymour Hoffman gain traction for Fox Searchlight's The Savages or ThinkFilm's Before the Devil Knows You're Dead--or cancel himself out on both counts? (Both distribs know what they're doing.) Will Frank Langella ride Frost/Nixon to a nom for Starting Out in the Evening (which I haven't yet seen)? Roadside Attractions also has marketing chops.

It all depends on how successfully the distribs behind these films persuade the Globes voters, the SAG actors, the Academy actors and the critics to watch all these second-tier movies.

The picture is much clearer for the Best Actress category. I don't expect this Gurus 'O Gold consensus top five list to change much going forward.

1. Marion Cotillard La Vie en Rose
2. Julie Christie Away from Her
3. Keira Knightley Atonement
4. Ellen Page Juno
5. Angelina Jolie A Mighty Heart

This Gurus 'O Gold Supporting Actress Consensus has more potential for movement as different pictures gain and lose momentum:
1. Cate Blanchett I'm Not There
2. Tilda Swinton Michael Clayton
3. Amy Ryan Gone, Baby Gone
4. Julia Roberts Charlie' Wilson's War (no one has seen it yet)
5. Saoirse Ronan Atonement