Oscar Watch: Gurus 'o Gold Vote Directors and Screenwriters

This week MCN's Gurus 'o Gold voted for director and screenplay. These votes support my thinking on why No Country for Old Men will land in the best picture category: the directors and writers --and I argue, actors and many of the craft branches--will be solidly behind it.

The Gurus' consensus top three directors are:

1. Joel Coen No Country for Old Men
2. Joe Wright Atonement
3. Ridley Scott American Gangster

The Gurus consensus on the top three original screenplays are:

1. Michael Gilroy Michael Clayton
2. Diablo Cody Juno
3. Tamara Jenkins The Savages

The Gurus consensus on the top three adapted screenplays are:

1. Joel and Ethan Coen No Country for Old Men
2. Christopher Hampton Atonement
3. Paul Thomas Anderson There Will be Blood

There are more originals than I thought, especially if Steve Zaillian goes in that category; the WGA arbitrated the credit on American Gangster because Zaillian is an executive producer; it's automatic. He interviewed Frank Lucas, who was the subject of Mark Jacobson's New York profile, but Zaillian added Richie Roberts to the story, and many others.

Both the directors and the writers often make maverick choices, and are more likely to sample the indies. But in very competitive categories numbers talk, and I keep hearing about people avoiding the whimsical pleasures of Lars and the Real Girl. I started with Lars writer Nancy Oliver and Oscar perennial Paul Haggis (In the Valley of Elah) on my originals list but Zaillian and Judd Apatow (Knocked Up) bumped them off.