November
20
Oscar Watch: Seeking Consensus
While I admire Kris Tapley's attempt to make some sense out of the blizzard of Oscar predictions out there, I remain convinced that until the prognosticators see Charlie Wilson's War and Sweeney Todd, the two films that many of us got invited to see Monday, none of these lists make much sense. Richard Corliss in Time suggests that "audiences will have a great time watching" Charlie Wilson's War, which seemed to play for Oprah Winfrey's Chicago audience. Oprah raved about Philip Seymour Hoffman's performance, as guests Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts (who tried to get out of shooting a bikini scene while four weeks pregnant) nodded politely. My hunch is that Hoffman won't get nommed for best actor for The Savages or Before the Devil Knows You're Dead, but will get a supporting nom for Charlie Wilson's War.
Clearly, the non-pro fans on Movie City News and Awards Daily are voting with their youthful hearts and not thinking much about the Academy's tastes. Into the Wild is a popular movie that has a chance at some noms, especially for Hal Holbrook, but because of the way the movie was written, shot and performed, the different branches of the Academy may not take it seriously enough. It's shot doc-style on location, it looks like it was performed on the fly. I suspect the editor has a better shot than Penn as director or writer, Emile Hirsch as actor, or the cinematography. The Academy admires fakery, sets, costumes and literature. As an organic whole, Into the Wild is an entertaining, thought-provoking emotionally rewarding movie. But it's a long-shot as an Academy contender.
David Fincher's Zodiac is another movie that isn't gaining Oscar momentum. It was well-reviewed last summer March, and many critics will include it on their ten-bests. But its time has come and gone. It was an expensive big-budget studio failure. It's indulgently long, and Fincher's insistence on verisimilitude meant not giving viewers a satisfying narrative arc. The movie has its merits--hell, it will be on my ten best list---but an Oscar contender needs to have enthusiastic supporters, few detractors and a passionate push behind it. It needs confidence. Zodiac has too many deficits. Paramount is already gearing up to make a major Oscar push for Fincher's next, starring Brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett as star-crossed lovers twisted by time, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.
I got into a heated debate with someone in the office yesterday about Enchanted, the animated/live action comedy that brilliantly spoofs Disney's classic animated musicals. This movie is just what the doctor ordered: entertaining, witty, engaging, delirious fun. It's a three-quadrant accessible family musical that will grow and grow and grow through the holidays. Whatever it opens at Wednesday, it will keep building: the movie could wind up one of the year's biggest grossers. Men will initially resist the chick flick's charms, but they should eventually get pulled into Enchanted's vortex. Amy Adams gives a full-blown star breakout performance (on Oprah, a clip of her from Charlie Wilson's War caused both Hanks and Roberts to chime, "Amy Adams," naming her the It Girl of the moment). Adams could land, Julie Andrews-style, a nomination for best actress. (Why Disney isn't thumping the movie harder, I don't know. Most of us media folks didn't see it until last week. UPDATE: And yet again, the Academy screening committee in its wisdom has scheduled Alvin and the Chipmunks during its prime December viewing season, and not Enchanted.)
But Enchanted is not your standard-issue Oscar movie. Director Kevin Lima (Tarzan, 102 Dalmations) has made a successful crossover from animation. Bill Kelly's script is witty and smart and should land a nomination. But will it? Let's be honest about the Academy. They are SNOBS! They are high-minded, nose-in-the-air, classists. The more literary, historic, and pretentious the better. (EW's Mark Harris explains the Oscar predicting game.) The last animated film to make it to Best Picture was Beauty and the Beast (for which Lima did character animation), before there was an animation category. Sure, I'd also like to see the best-reviewed movie of the year, Pixar's fabulous Ratatouille, score screenplay, director and picture. It deserves it. But it won't necessarily happen.
The trick with Oscar predicting is feeling where the momentum is going and looking into the future, down the line. The best prognosticators have seen the movies, one. And two, they're not rooting for their favorites. They're staying ruthlessly objective. Do I have some pics I'm rooting for? Sure. But I have to take that into account and remain clear-eyed. The year I let emotions get the better of me and predicted that Beauty and the Beast would win, I was so wrong.
As for the Academy docs short list of 15, they are the the best-known and best-reviewed: the full list is on the jump.
"Autism: The Musical," directed by Tricia Regan
"Body of War," directed by Phil Donahue and Ellen Spiro
"For The Bible Tells Me So," directed by Daniel G. Karslake
"Lake of Fire," directed by Tony Kaye
"Nanking," directed by Bill Guttentag and Dan Sturman
"No End in Sight," directed by Charles Ferguson
"Operation Homecoming - Writing the Wartime Experience," directed by Richard Robbins
"Please Vote For Me," directed by Wejun Chen
"The Price of Sugar," directed by Bill Haney
"A Promise to the Dead: The Exile Journey of Ariel Dorfman," directed by Peter Raymont
"The Rape of Europa," directed by Richard Berge and Bonni Cohen
"Sicko," directed by Michael Moore
"Taxi to the Dark Side," directed by Alex Gibney
"War/Dance," directed by Sean Fine and Andrea Nix Fine
"White Light/Black Rain," directed by Steven Okazaki
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"Clearly, the non-pro fans on Movie City News and Awards Daily are voting with their youthful hearts and not thinking much about the Academy's tastes."
Ann, as a 56-year-old Sultan of Bling, I'm flattered but suggest you reconsider your comment. I don't know the age or profession of many of my fellow Sultans; some may be in their twenties. But I do know I'm not the oldest, plus there's another 50-ish Sultan. Two are psychologists, one is an attorney, and I'm a retired West Coast-based actor, writer and theatrical producer. No doubt a great deal of other relevant talent can be found among the Sultans.
Sure, some may be voting with their hearts, and the chart may have some outliers. But the readers at Awards Daily are quite an astute bunch -- usually not effete, though, and quite considerate when compared with some blogs. To a significant degree, I regard the Sultans as a collaborative effort, and I'll be reading all the comments posted to help temper my opinions and keep me objective (in an Academy mindset).
Thanks for the coverage!
Posted by: Pierre de Plume | November 20, 2007 at 07:56 PM
Oops, sorry for misspelling your name, Anne.
Posted by: Pierre de Plume | November 20, 2007 at 07:57 PM
sorry for misreading the age group!
Posted by: Anne Thompson | November 20, 2007 at 09:10 PM
Regarding "Into The Wild"....My next-door-neighbor is an Academy member who is a 60 year-old male and he told me yesterday it was his favorite film of the year. He is a member of the art directors branch. He admired the "behind the lens" contributions enormously, most notably the cinematography , music and editing. He thinks Emile Hirsch should win for actor "but probably won't" and that Hal Holbrook will be nominated and "will likely win"... and he thinks Sean Penn is a "shoe-in" for director and screenplay recognition. I know it's only one person (but he does happen to be an "older" member of the group you're speaking of) so I thought I would mention it.
Posted by: Leone | November 21, 2007 at 05:33 PM
Anne, that is soooo important...We're supposed to be figuring out the minds of the Academy, who are EXACTLY how you described them, but even more so...And the age level is H-I-G-H...
I think you're right on the money about "Zodiac" and "Into the Wild". In fact, you read my mind...
We're trying to figure THEM out. And every time I get emotionally involved, I'm wrong...
But I can tell you one thing...Objectively, and Chris Tapley is right about this. Ditto Tom O'Neil, AMPAS is not digging "No Country For Old Men" the way that critics are...The end is decidedly unsatisfying and definitely confusing for them...
Oh, and I'm one of the Gurus o' Gold 2.0, "The younger, edgier Gurus" I must be the edgy one...LOLOL...
Keep up your spectacularly insightful and apt work...It delights me every day...
Posted by: Stephen Holt | November 21, 2007 at 11:16 PM
Anne, I think Into the Wild will enjoy support from many Academy members of Baby Boomer age -- and their numbers have grown in recent years. Whether the film makes top 5 remains to be seen, but it's still in contention.
And Stephen, where have you been hiding?
Posted by: Pierre de Plume | November 22, 2007 at 06:48 AM
Pierre,
In the Academy, the Baby Boomers are WAAAAAAAAAAAY outnumbered by the, er, retirees...The National Board of Review, another awards giving body, is totally made up of retirees. Sydney Lumet at 84 is their demographic personified. And HE could win this year...He'll certainly get nommed...
And affluent golden agers, at that...Oh, and that's another word that's not used often with the Academy. They are RICH and OLD.
Not saying there's anything wrong with either demographic. Just THAT'S WHAT YOU'RE DEALING WITH. And you've got to think like they do, or you're not really playing this game right...
I famously did NOT like Emile Hirsch OR "Into The Wild". I'm a baby boomer. I identified, if I identified with any body at all in that movie...with Marcia Gay Harden and William Hurt's performances as parents' of said self-destructive lunatic...And I'm guessing the Academy is going to think that way, too. EXCEPT for Hal Holbrook, who is the Academy's demographic. And he COULD be the only solid nomination.And, yes, he was brilliant...The whole film should've been as good as he is. And it infuriated me that it wasn't...But then Emile Hirsch isn't simply not much of an actor...Sorry, but he isn't...
Then again, the DGA LOVES to nominate actors-turned-directors. And the DGA ALSO aren't the academy's directors branch. Penn could get a DGA nomination, but then not get nominated for Best Director from AMPAS, as Anne suggests above^. Or states, actually.
There's also Anne's sage comments about most of us not seeing "Sweeney Todd" or "Charlie Wilson's War" yet. I think she's saying that they are both important Oscar-wise and I can't wait to see both of them. I hope they blow the whole race, or non-race, up. I think she's right on the Award money. But then she always is...
After the "Dreamgirls" debacle last year...which was a slap in the face to the Internet, among many other things...the studios are saving TONS of money by just keeping relatively mum on Oscar this year...
But just wait til the week after next, when we've all seen "Sweeney" and "Charlie"...!!!
But Anne's almost always right...And also, yes, Disney is not hyping Amy Adams for "Enchanted." They never got in touch with ME for instance...And I like Amy Adams.I don't even think they think of it as an Oscar film. At least not yet...
And the trailers I've seen are off-putting to adults, Mouse House-typical...
Whereas Fox Searchlight is VERY focused on getting "Juno," a teen pregnancy comedy and its teenage leading lady, Ellen Page, OUT THERE. And as I questioned certain staffers at the "Savages" junket this past week re: Laura Linney's chances vs. Ellen Page's...Well, the young Miss Page was deemed the much surer thing...
But they are also waiting til the last minute with "Juno", too...
I'm glad that AT LEAST they gave the small, dark Indie "Savages" a release date SLIGHTLY before the flood gates open.
It's going to be one crazy December!
Posted by: Stephen Holt | November 22, 2007 at 09:11 AM
this is an exciting year for Oscar, but too many fine serious films. Watch for upsets in the final nominations. Every year the Academy picks a career nomination. This year it may be Andy Griffith for supporting actor in Waitress. Hairspray will surprise with several nominations. Enchanted's rousing boxoffice will propel Amy Adams to the front of the actress line, but Atonement appears as the frontrunner, at least now.
Posted by: Dennis Kouba | November 23, 2007 at 05:46 AM
Regarding Stephen's comments on the retirees far outweighing the baby boomers.....Do the retirees get to vote? I thought that if you are retired you can't vote. Am I wrong? There's some branch that cannot vote -- does anybody know?
Posted by: Leone | November 23, 2007 at 10:50 AM
Dolores Hart in her convent still votes
Posted by: anne thompson | November 23, 2007 at 11:36 PM
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