Oscar Watch: The Night Before; Final Predicts

Basically everyone is running around partying this weekend. Of course I'm missing the non-press-invited ones, like Bryan Lourd's confab at his home, and an Endeavor party, and the Night Before the Night Before party, and the Night Before party itself, which was tonight. Very confusing.

Tonight I did go to a lovely Miramax fete at the unfinished penthouse at Sunset Boulevard's Luckman Plaza, a 60s classic designed by Charles Luckman which is undergoing a renovation. Miramax prexy Daniel Battsek is a founding member of Soho House, which has taken over the top floor with panoramic views of the city. The loft-like space was lit by light bulbs hanging down from unfinished exposed ceilings. Persian rugs covered concrete floors. Guests lounged living-room style in leather couches and arm chairs or sat along a long communal glass table as waiters served wine and giant white platters of yummy fish, chicken, veggies, pasta and pastries.

Disney honchos Robert Iger and Dick Cook attended, along with Joel and Ethan Coen, Ronald Harwood, Jon Kilik, Amy Ryan, Scott Rudin, Michael London, Elton John, and Frank Marshall. My favorite moment: Frances McDormand fussing over bear-chested indie-spirit winner Julian Schnabel's various strands of jewelry.

Tomorrow I'll be reporting on the tented red carpet at the Kodak (it's raining hard now), which is always a huge adrenaline rush. From there I will blog live from the press room, where the Oscar winners come through for questions. They pass through the TV room, the photo room and the print room. It's cavernous. Two other Variety writers (who are supposed to get reactions from all 24 winners) and I have assigned seats. If we want to ask a question we hold up a card with a number on it, like an auction. We can listen to the kudocast on special headsets. And I will attend the Governor's Ball, my favorite Oscar night ritual, as the ecstatic winners greet well-wishers with huge grins on their faces, clutching their (heavy) gold booty. UPDATE: As of 11:16 AM it is sunny. Rain is expected.

Here are my best guesses at what will happen tomorrow--though there's plenty of room for upsets:

Picture: No Country for Old Men
Director: Joel and Ethan Coen
Best Actress: Julie Christie (but Marion Cotillard is a real possibility)
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis
Supporting male: Javier Bardem
Supporting female: Cate Blanchett (Tilda Swinton and Amy Ryan are possible too)
Original Screenplay: Diablo Cody
Adapted Screenplay: Joel and Ethan Coen
Animated: Ratatouille
Cinematography: There Will Be Blood
Art Direction: There Will Be Blood
Song: Falling Slowly (Once)
Score: Atonement
Documentary: Taxi to the Dark Side
Costume: Sweeney Todd
Foreign Language Film: The Counterfeiters
Sound mixing: The Bourne Ultimatum
Sound editing: The Bourne Ultimatum
Makeup: La Vie en Rose
Film Editing: The Bourne Ultimatum
Visual Effects: Transformers
Animated Short: Peter and the Wolf
Documentary Short: Freeheld
Live Action Short: The Mozart of Pickpockets

For the record, my votes at the LAT Buzzmeter and MCN's Gurus o' Gold and even my office pool do not match these last-minute calls.