Iron Man: Why it Will be Huge

Those of us who saw Paramount's first Iron Man materials at Comic-Con--and witnessed the hordes lining up just to see the damned costume unveiled--don't need to be convinced that this picture will be a summer boxoffice juggernaut. It should easily pass $200 million. Will it get to $300 million is another question.

Why?

1. NEW ACTION HERO. This may be the robust male action fantasy hero that we've been waiting for. A new contemporary complex male who isn't Batman or Superman. (Face it, they've been around for a while.) Check out the latest clip and our photo gallery. Who wouldn't want to fly around like that? While Iron Man comicbook fans are legion, this is a new modern movie hero who kicks ass. And he's not a nice guy.

2. NEW STAR. Robert Downey Jr. has reached that magic moment when an edgy up-and-coming character actor ages into a certain masculine gravitas. No one ever doubted Downey's gift of gab, comedy and sexy appeal. But now Downey seems to have put his demons behind him. The one-two punch of actioner Iron Man and the late summer comedy Tropic Thunder may push him into real movie stardom.

3. SMART DIRECTOR. Jon Favreau is a gifted filmmaker with real chops. He can do character comedy: Elf, Swingers. He's smart. I don't care if Zathura tanked. It was a delightful smart fast-moving family adventure comedy. Selling it as a sequel to Jimanji was a mistake. But studios are loathe to sell originals and the movie never would have been made otherwise.

4. FUN MARVEL TOYS. My Iron Man action figure (above) is the envy of the office. (Launching repulsor projectile!) There's a lot more where that came from.

5. FEMME APPEAL. Add Gwenyth Paltrow to the mix, and I see a three quadrant movie. Who's left out? Older women. But I really want to see the movie. So who knows?

6. ORIGINAL. While Paramount can sell the movie to Iron Man comics fans, it is not a sequel, remake or retread of any kind. It is the presumable launch of a franchise. Every franchise had to start somewhere, as an original. They're harder to market, but if they work, you're off.

7. EARLY SUMMER LAUNCH. Iron Man opens wide on May 2 (basically the Spider Man date) at the start of the summer, when audiences are starving for a big popcorn picture. Things haven't gotten crowded yet. It should have a wide open playing field. Made of Honor will get the girls. Summer blockbuster sequel Narnia: Prince Caspian opens May 16, and Indy 4 May 22. (UPDATE: The Latin American press have seen the pic. Nothing yet for us stateside.)

Here's the trailer.

Comments

[Don Murphy]

Wrong on every count.

Zathura?

[mitkid]

Loved the comic as a kid, then when I saw the trailer it became a must see even if it does get bad reviews.

[jason]

Maybe I'm the only one not excited about the trailer. Doesn't this look like the Rocketeer and everyone was saying how big that was gonna be and unfortunately went nowhere. yes it does have the great release date but I just don't think it will be that huge.

[quasar]

Don, if that really is you, thank god you didn't get anywhere near this movie after it left New Line. Zathura was awesome. It has heart you'll never understand. Jason, this movie will be HUGE, and I for one can not wait to see you both proven wrong.

[D.Z.]

1) People don't care about action heroes anymore. They want it all done in bad CG. Hence why Transformers was a hit, and Rambo lost to Spartan Movie.
2) Downey's better known for his off-screen antics than his performances. Keaton got away with being an unknown, because he was in the suit most of the time.
3) I agree there, but smart does not equal big. Otherwise Fantastic Four would be a bomb, and Fun With Dick and Jane would be a hit.
4) Toys don't have the same market share as games. Fortunately, Iron Man is covered on both fronts, so I'll just agree for now.
5) Paltrow is not a box office draw.
6) Being original does not always equal results. Look at Hellboy.
7) You have a point there.

My problem with the film is it comes off more like a law-enforcement type of deal than a superhero picture. I also don't buy Downey suddenly being able to assemble his own suit. Still, I think while it won't be huge, it won't bomb, either. It should do well enough to keep everyone happy.

[ArcLight]

I'd still like to think Rocketeer's biggest box office problem was that it opened just before Terminator 2. That and it was marketed as a Disney film.

Iron Man has a week before Speed Racer but I don't know any casual moviegoer who's excited by that one. Actually I don't know anyone who seems to care about that. Iron Man and Indy are the only movies that I hear people talking about.

[anne thompson]

Rocketeer was a sweet fresh-faced Disney PG squeaky-clean unthreatening movie with no edge. It wasn't very good.

[Rey Fox]

Let's see, two Alan Moore masterpieces ruined from lack of vision, no faithfulness to the source material, silly, overblown directing, and squandering of acting talent, and Transformers (which absolutely missed the mark on what made the original cartoon and toy line a hit). Please keep Don Murphy away from all comic book properties.

[Don Murphy]

Ray Fox
By insulting me, Johnny Depp, The Hughes Bros and Sean Connery in one sentence and then saying the number two film of 2007 missed the mark you have proven yourself worthy of watching ZATHURA again.

[Lumpy]

MitKid, you are way off.
My advice would be for you to pick up one of the late '80s and early '90s Iron Man mags, and get yourself an edu-ma-ca-chun. Anyone who isn't excited by this movie just isn't in the groove. Thank God for fresh ideas in Hollywood. I fear that we're running out, quickly. Five years and they' be doing a remake of Gigli, fer Pete's sake.

[Irf]

Zathura was dope.

[Drew]

I'm putting all my chips on "spectacular success" for this one.

While I write about movies for a living, my friends do not go to the movies...at all. Much less do they talk about movies. There are lots of things we do on Friday nights, but schlepping to the Arclight just simply isn't one of them. (I remember last summer trying to get the gang together to see "Transformers," and it was like pulling teeth.) But with "Iron Man," as soon as the billboards went up, they all started asking me if I knew when it was coming out.

Then there's my mother, who has been to a movie theater exactly once in the last 12 months (to see "Juno"). She asked me last weekend if I had seen "Iron Man" yet -- she likes Downey Jr., and she's curious.

So signs look good from my two focus groups.

[Bob]

it's actually going to have an off weekend compared to what it should have really opened at iknow a lot of kids that are going to be playing GTAIV

[gary]

I saw IRON MAN yesterday. I have never read the comic and know almost nothing about the character. But I had seen some clips of Downey developing the suit and was amused. Well I can report the movie is terrific. It is a thinking person's superhero film with more character development than special effects and action scenes (though there are plenty of those which are nicely balanced so we get involved in the story rather than bored by non-stop effects.). Downey is terrific...funny, smart and charming...and very buff. Paltrow seems right out of 60's superhero comics or Money Penny from early Bond: proper and subservient assistant who is smart below the surface and more than a little enamored of her boss.

It should be a hit but 200 million is a long way to go when it is undercut in subsequent weeks by more blockbusters.

The opening robbery scene from DARK KNIGHT promised a terrific, critical hit, a ten minute scene from HANCOCK promises a very different superhero movie with Will Smith but footage from THE INCREDIBLE HULK played very flat.

By the way, also saw about 15 minutes of TROPIC THUNDER. Hilarious plus a mock trailer called SATAN'S ALLEY with a Searchlight logo a featuring Downey and Tobey Macquire is very funny and evidently one of 3 fakes trailers, each with non Paramount logos.

[Ron]

I won't see it. Iron Man is a second class hero. Batman: The Dark Knight is the film for the summer!

[Joe]

The greatest movie of all time:

DURKA DURKA MUHOMMED JIHAD...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kq-vOaX5Px8

[iansong]

I can't wait for this film. I have been a long time fan of the Marvel character. Tony Stark is a fascinating human being with serious internal struggles. Downey is the perfect actor to portray this conflicted individual. Like the X-men and Spider-man films this looks like perfect casting all around. A strong cast, a strong story, and some ass-kicking fun will make this a blockbuster.

[JohnClayton]

Judging from the feedback featured here, negative or positive, just the fact so many took the time to voice their views, indicates the film has legs.

[Everton Carter]

well, when are the people who thouht this wouldn't work coming back to eat their humble pie?

How is the CGI in transformers BAD? In which Paralell universe are the Fantastic 4 movies big hits? Fox has killed off the FF with two poor to awful movies, and it can only be hoped that Marvel can rest the rights back, a-la Hulk and make a decent FF film. Please do not let them make a poor Silver Surfer movie too.