June
25
Hancock: Critic-Proof?
Based on seeing Hancock the other night, I can tell you this. Todd McCarthy's early negative review will be one of many. The knives are out, and they are sharp. When this movie opens July 2, it will be eviscerated.
But because Will Smith is in what I call the Fluke Zone, the movie will open great over the 4th of July weekend (five-day estimates are from $80 to 100 million), and will do robust business. But it won't be one of the top-grossers of the summer, because it is unlikely to please everybody, or generate repeat biz. It could do better overseas.
It's a movie that tried to be smart and weird and interesting, with gifted filmmakers behind it: producers Michael Mann and Akiva Goldsman (who do cameos), edgy screenwriter Vince Gilligan (Breaking Bad), and director Peter Berg (Friday Night Lights, The Kingdom).
They created a fascinating damaged, alcoholic, homeless superhero, well-played by Smith, but their attempts to mix and match smart character-based drama (Charlize Theron and Jason Bateman also star) with superhero action adventure (VFX by Sony Pictures Imageworks) is a Frankenstein's Monster.
These are not cynical people. I don't know who to blame, so I'll start with the budget. If the movie cost, as I have been told, from $150 million (Sony's claim) to a rumored $180 million, then Sony and investor Relativity Media may have a tough time getting their money back. Studio-think dictates that you take elements like these filmmakers and Smith and spend tons of money on a big big movie. Which means the risk has to go down, and what's interesting and strange has to be mitigated by the usual series of second act action sequences that someone like Spielberg knows how to pull off without getting dopey, but this group could not.
Another problem, as Rachel Abramowitz points out, is superhero overload. Watch for Hancock's second weekend drop-off. If it's more than 60%, the movie could be in trouble.
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exactly. it's about the second week slide. i'll go with just under 60%. hancock should do very well on disc, etc -- it'll be fine. nobody that's interested in seeing this cares what the critics are saying
Posted by: Alan | June 25, 2008 at 07:20 PM
At the beginning, I felt like I was the only person who wasn't immediately charmed by the initial trailer. I thought it looked stupid. I feel vindicated now.
Posted by: Liz | June 25, 2008 at 09:29 PM
Fans of the superhero genre know better than to listen to critics by now. The fact that the market is so saturated with superhero movies will work FOR this film, not against it, because it's a satire in many respects. It's smart, it's funny, and above all, it's Will Smith. Since when has he not had a lock on 4th of July weekend?
I'll be there, certainly.
Posted by: Meg | June 26, 2008 at 10:01 AM
HANCOCK makes me recall Philip Wylie's novel, "Gladiator," about a lab-created Superman who fights in WWI and kills lots of Germans and is tormented by it and never achieves happiness in his life. This was the work that inspired Jerry Siegel and Joe Schuster, the teenage creators of the Superman comic. There was a film version called THE GLADIATOR in 1938, but they simply took Wylie's premise and, sadly, turned it into a Joe E. Brown college sports comedy. It's a great book and would have made a thoughtful, serious sci-fi superhero drama somewhere along the way.
Posted by: Brian | June 27, 2008 at 08:33 AM
it's not so funny...not so much of a send-up. it's pretty straight. if it had the tone you describe, it might work better. I was with it for the first hour; the Charlize Theron subplot doesn't work somehow in the second half, which is mostly big action sequences.
Posted by: Anne Thompson | June 27, 2008 at 10:44 AM
Did you see the same movie that I saw? Handcock took the superhero genre and turned it inside out and made something it has never been before but desperately needs to become, intelligent. The funny parts were funny and the acting was great. I won't spoil it for any of you who haven't seen it, but the story has some really good twists. You're wrong about the box office receipts, it will make it through the second week with a good market share...hide and watch. Although Will has never done a sequel, I'd bank on one in a couple of years.
Posted by: JD | July 03, 2008 at 10:55 PM