October
30
Oscar Watch: Starting to Focus
I've been taking a wait-and-see approach on the Oscar race. You really don't know until you screen all the pictures. But enough other people are seeing them, now, for me to take a stab at where the race is right now. And nobody I know of has seen Australia, Seven Pounds, The Reader or Gran Torino.
The movies are falling into five categories.
Best Picture frontrunners with likely deep support:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight (but Warners has to delicately calibrate this campaign)
Doubt
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
Likely acting nods, but the pics need critical support and awards recognition:
Changeling (Angelina Jolie)
Defiance (Liev Schreiber)
Frost/Nixon (Frank Langella)
I've Loved You So Long (Kristin Scott Thomas)
Milk (Sean Penn)
Seven Pounds (Will Smith)
W. (Josh Brolin)
The Wrestler (Mickey Rourke)
Little Indies that Could:
Frozen River (Melissa Leo)
Happy-Go-Lucky (Sally Hawkins)
Rachel Getting Married (Anne Hathaway, Rosemarie Dewitt)
The Visitor (Richard Jenkins)
Wendy and Lucy (Michelle Williams)
Best Animated Feature:
Kung Fu Panda
Wall-E (could go all the way if it lands enough noms)
Waltz with Bashir
Best Foreign Film
The Baader Meinhof Complex
The Class
Everlasting Moments
Waltz with Bashir
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Anne, you see a best picture nod for "Revolutionay Road, but no acting nods for DiCaprio and Winslet ?
To me the film's strength is drawn from the the strength of their respective performances.
I don't see BP for "RR" without nods for DiCaprio and Winslet.
Posted by: Perceptions | October 30, 2008 at 04:51 PM
No Kevin Farley for An American Carol nod?
Posted by: SeanH | October 31, 2008 at 12:13 AM
deep support means that there are noms through all the categories: director, writer, actors etc.
Posted by: Anne Thompson | October 31, 2008 at 12:44 AM
Anne, thanks for response ; got it :)
Posted by: Perceptions | October 31, 2008 at 06:44 AM
why no Milk for best picture? i've heard generally positive things, but i guess nothing overwhelmingly so. does it still have a chance at a best pic nod?
Posted by: tony | October 31, 2008 at 09:07 AM
I'll have a better idea after I see it Monday. It's early days--critics, ten bests etc all factor into these things.
Posted by: Anne Thompson | October 31, 2008 at 09:38 AM
Anne have to seen Captain Abu Read which is Jordan's first ever entry to the Academy Awards? I saw it at the Variety series this week and I have to tell you, it is the best film I have seen all year. You must see it- I think after you do, you just might agree that this may be THE foreign language film to win.
Posted by: Mike | November 01, 2008 at 02:40 AM
it's on my screener pile
Posted by: Anne Thompson | November 01, 2008 at 08:20 AM
I would rather add (in the acting category) Benicio del Toro as Che Guevara.
Posted by: Axel | November 02, 2008 at 01:51 PM