January
7
WGA Nominations Analysis
The Writers Guild of America nominees often line up with the Academy. They're a sign of where the prevailing winds are blowing.
And they show that folks like me predicting Oscar nominations at the LATimes Buzzmeter and Gurus 'O Gold can make mistakes.
I called surprise nominee Burn After Reading (7th at Gurus 'O Gold for original screenplay), but the Gurus and Buzzmeter agreed that Rachel Getting Married would land a nod (I did not). The Gurus (including me) thought that Happy-Go-Lucky and Wall-E would get in there too. They didn't. And the LAT missed on Changeling. This year, it seems, Clint Eastwood may settle for going for an actor prize for Gran Torino.
On adapted screenplay, I got the Nolans for The Dark Knight (while the Buzzmeter group went for Revolutionary Road) but I picked David Hare's The Reader instead of Doubt.
What does this tell us? The top five--The Dark Knight, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon, Milk and Slumdog Millionaire-- continue strong. And Doubt is looking good, too--and doing well at the boxoffice. Revolutionary Road is not feeling the love. And I always wondered about Rachel Getting Married. But the Academy writers could yet come through for Wall-E and Happy-Go-Lucky. We'll see.
The nominees are:
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
"Burn After Reading," written by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, Focus Features
"Milk," written by Dustin Lance Black, Focus Features
"Vicky Cristina Barcelona," written by Woody Allen, The Weinstein Company
"The Visitor, "written by Tom McCarthy, Overture Films
"The Wrestler," written by Robert Siegel, Fox Searchlight Pictures
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," Screenplay by Eric Roth; Screen Story by Eric Roth and Robin Swicord; Based on the Short Story by F. Scott Fitzgerald, Paramount Pictures and Warner Bros. Pictures
"The Dark Knight," Screenplay by Jonathan Nolan and Christopher Nolan; Story by Christopher Nolan & David S. Goyer; Based on Characters Appearing in Comic Books Published by DC Comics; Batman Created by Bob Kane, Warner Bros. Pictures
"Doubt," Screenplay by John Patrick Shanley, Based on his Stage Play, Miramax Films
"Frost/Nixon, "Screenplay by Peter Morgan, Based on his Stage Play, Universal Pictures
"Slumdog Millionaire," Screenplay by Simon Beaufoy, Based on the Novel "Q and A" by Vikas Swarup, Fox Searchlight Pictures
DOCUMENTARY SCREENPLAY
"Boogie Man: The Lee Atwater Story, "written by Stefan Forbes and Noland Walker, InterPositive Media
"Chicago 10", written by Brett Morgen, Roadside Attractions
"Fuel", written by Johnny O'Hara, Greenlight Theatrical / Intention Media
"Gonzo: The Life and Work of Dr. Hunter S. Thompson", Screenplay by Alex Gibney, From the Words of Hunter S. Thompson, Magnolia Pictures
"Waltz with Bashir, "written by Ari Folman, Sony Pictures Classics
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WALL-E was never eligible for a WGA nom. Like all animated movies, it was not written under a WGA contract.
Posted by: WGA member | January 08, 2009 at 10:00 AM
thanks for reminding us of that
Posted by: Variety.com * | January 08, 2009 at 11:07 AM
I hope that The Wrestler wins. It is definitely one of the best films I have ever seen.
Posted by: James Stewart | January 09, 2009 at 06:15 AM