Thompson On Hollywood

Oscar Watch: Nominations Analysis

There were some welcome surprises this nominations morning. (Here's Variety's story.) Atonement made it to best picture. While Keira Knightley, James McAvoy and Joe Wright did not win noms, Saorise Ronin did. Christopher Hampton earned a screenplay nod. The Guilds don't always reflect the Academy, clearly; this means the battle for the fifth slot was fierce. But Atonement got seven noms altogether; Michael Clayton seven, Juno four, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, four, and Sweeney Todd got only three (Johnny Depp, art direction and costume); Juno's Jason Reitman, not Tim Burton, landed a director's slot. A surprise, but well-deserved. (I was talking to him here in Park City last night at the WMA party; he was nervous because he didn't get a writing nom last time for Thank You for Smoking.)

Atonement took the fifth best picture slot away from The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. Julian Schnabel got director, and Harwood screenplay, but Diving Bell, which is foreign language, didn't make it all the way.

Into the Wild must not have been that strong because Sean Penn and Emile Hirsch did not get nominated. It was shut out earned expected supporting actor nom for Hal Holbrook and editing. Eddie Vedder's music might have gotten in if it hadn't been disqualified. I never thought Into The Wild would score with the Academy, but Paramount Vantage gave it the full court push.

If Jonny Greenwood's score hadn't been disqualified, There Will be Blood might have nine noms to No Country for Old Men's eight. Vantage, Miramax and producer Scott Rudin, who partnered on those two films, are having a very good day.

The Academy loves Cate Blanchett, nominating her twice, for Elizabeth and I'm Not There, movies she dominated. She can do no wrong. Laura Linney beat Angelina Jolie, which is an upset but proves that the Golden Globes and SAG do not necessarily match up with the Academy. The Savages is well respected; so is Linney; so is screenwriter Tamara Jenkins. When in doubt, the Academy goes with the class act. Four solo women screenwriters got nominated, my USA Today pal Susan Wloszczyna pointed out on the phone this morning.

I had a flash that Tommy Lee Jones could be nominated for not only In the Valley of Elah, but also on some level No Country for Old Men. I wish I had listened to that instinct. And Viggo Mortensen got a deserved first Oscar nomination for David Cronenberg's Eastern Promises.

Casey Affleck took the fifth supporting actor slot. And Jennifer Garner didn't make it; Ruby Dee got the older vet slot, for American Gangster.

The full list of noms are on the jump.

SAG Nominees Go Indie

The Screen Actors Guild nominees took some surprising directions. (Here's Variety's story.) They reflect a few things about SAG, and may not predict Academy voting behavior. The two groups often share noms but also go their separate ways.

Actors LOVE Sean Penn, whose Into the Wild grabbed four noms. Hal Holbrook is still the most likely Oscar nom for this film, but Emile Hirsch and Catherine Keener get a leg up. Remember, actors adore Penn, but the rest of the Academy voters may not.

I hope the attention SAG voters gave Lars and the Real Girl's Ryan Gosling, Eastern Promises' Viggo Mortensen and A Mighty Heart's Angelina Jolie will inspire Academy voters to watch those three films.

Actors love Cate Blanchett. Like the Golden Globes, she grabbed two noms, for best actress for Elizabeth: The Golden Age and supporting actress for I'm Not There. I doubt the Oscar actors will go for Elizabeth.

SAG voters are somewhat more mainstream than the Academy actors. They steered away from such late-breaking high-brow Academy contenders as Sweeney Todd and Atonement. No Johnny Depp, James McAvoy, Keira Knightley, Saorise Ronan. They went for There Will be Blood's Daniel Day Lewis, but not Paul Dano. Michael Clayton's George Clooney, Tilda Swinton and Tom Wilkinson continue to gain traction for Academy Oscar slots. SAG voters skipped such foreign-language fare as The Diving Bell and the Butterfly and The Kite Runner, but came through for Marion Cotillard in La Vie en Rose, which was a hit here. It makes sense that they embraced the great ensemble acting in the hugely entertaining 3:10 to Yuma, American Gangster, Hairspray and No Country for Old Men (both Tommy Lee Jones and Javier Bardem got supporting actor noms).

American Gangster won a best ensemble nod and Ruby Dee is a supporting actress nominee, but Denzel Washington got nothing, not for American Gangster nor The Great Debaters, which some SAG voters may not have had a chance to see. While American Gangster seems to be losing momentum (it has fallen out of the LAT's Buzzmeter poll's top five for best picture) my sense is that many Academy voters like it a lot. Charlie Wilson's War, on the other hand, which opens this weekend, hasn't got a pulse.

The full SAG nominations list is on the jump:

Oscar Watch: American Gangster Party

Universal's Ron Meyer, Marc Shmuger, David Linde and producer Brian Grazer threw an Oscar-season party at Ago Saturday night to honor American Gangster director Ridley Scott. It's a measure of the Brit's clout that he was surrounded by actors. Paying tribute were Gangster star Denzel Washington, Leonardo DiCaprio (talking to Jeremy Piven), Armand Assante and Edward James Olmos, who starred in the recently reissued Blade Runner.

Scott shot commercials in Manhattan back in the 70s, when American Gangster was set, and took pictures in Harlem, which he consulted when prepping the movie. Screenwriter Steve Zaillian, who collaborated with Scott on Black Hawk Down and Hannibal, sent his draft of American Gangster to the director, who managed to talk Washington into coming back on board after a later script fell dormant. Zaillian is trying to adjust to not writing, he said. Strike talk filled the party, with most folks assuming that the forthcoming DGA talks were most likely to yield some results.

Golden Globe Nominations: Atonement Leads Pack with Seven

With seven nominations, Joe Wright's Atonement led the field of Golden Globe nominations Thursday morning. It was a good day for Denzel Washington, who stars in two films out of seven in the motion picture drama category: American Gangster, in which he stars as a Harlem kingpin, and The Great Debaters, a heart-tugging period drama about an upstart debate team at a black college who take on Harvard, which he also directed. He was also nominated for best actor for American Gangster.

The 80 or so Hollywood Foreign press voters wound up with three ties for fifth place, they say; hence the seven drama slots.

Michael Clayton earned five noms, including George Clooney, Tilda Swinton and Tom Wilkinson. Cate Blanchett landed two noms, for dramatic actress in Elizabeth: The Golden Age and for her supporting role as one of six Bob Dylans in I'm Not There. And Philip Seymour Hoffman won two comedy side noms, as best actor in The Savages and supporting actor in Charlie Wilson's War.

While considered a bellwether for the Oscars, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association generously breaks its best picture and actor candidates into two categories: drama and musical/comedy, while the Motion Picture Academy does not. Thus, on January 22 the Academy may not find room to reward all the musical/comedy Globe entries: Across the Universe, Hairspray, Juno, Sweeney Todd and Charlie Wilson's War, which landed five noms.

The director category reveals the strongest five Globe candidates: Sweeney Todd, No Country for Old Men, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, American Gangster and Atonement. I would not be surprised if those five also wound up as Oscar's best on January 22. While its youthful director Jason Reitman did not land a director Globe mention, Juno, which got nods for comedy, actress (Ellen Page) and screenplay (Diablo Cody) is gaining momentum in the Oscar race.

There's no question that Hairspray got a significant boost from the Globe nominations, especially John Travolta in the supporting actor category, who had been overlooked by critics' groups. Also getting much-needed recognition was Casey Affleck for The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford.

Among the Globe surprises that may not be mirrored on the Oscar side of the ledger:

David Cronenberg's Eastern Promises and star Viggo Mortenson earned drama nods.

Angelina Jolie landed a dramatic actress nom for A Mighty Heart.

Jodie Foster was recognized for her role as a Manhattan vigilante in The Brave One.

On the musical/comedy side:

Hairspray's Nikki Blonsky and Sweeney Todd's Helena Bonham Carter landed noms.

Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts won noms for Charlie Wilson's War.

John C. Reilly landed a nod for the musical comedy Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story.

Ryan Gosling got a much-needed boost for the indie flick Lars and the Real Girl.

Of the musical/comedy actor nods, the likeliest one to score with the Academy voters is Sweeney Todd's Johnny Depp.

Because the Globes have less stringent criteria for inclusion in its foreign film category, several films that are not eligible for the Oscars made the cut: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Lust, Caution and The Kite Runner. Nominees 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days (Romania) and Persepolis (France) are considered strong contenders in the foreign Oscar race.

While many would-be awards-season contenders are crying in their beer today, all is not lost. It is possible to forge ahead without Globe noms, as Half-Nelson star Gosling did last year.

The full list of movie nominations is on the jump.

Oscar Watch: Seeking Consensus

While I admire Kris Tapley's attempt to make some sense out of the blizzard of Oscar predictions out there, I remain convinced that until the prognosticators see Charlie Wilson's War and Sweeney Todd, the two films that many of us got invited to see Monday, none of these lists make much sense. Richard Corliss in Time suggests that "audiences will have a great time watching" Charlie Wilson's War, which seemed to play for Oprah Winfrey's Chicago audience. Oprah raved about Philip Seymour Hoffman's performance, as guests Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts (who tried to get out of shooting a bikini scene while four weeks pregnant) nodded politely. My hunch is that Hoffman won't get nommed for best actor for The Savages or Before the Devil Knows You're Dead, but will get a supporting nom for Charlie Wilson's War.

Clearly, the non-pro fans on Movie City News and Awards Daily are voting with their youthful hearts and not thinking much about the Academy's tastes. Into the Wild is a popular movie that has a chance at some noms, especially for Hal Holbrook, but because of the way the movie was written, shot and performed, the different branches of the Academy may not take it seriously enough. It's shot doc-style on location, it looks like it was performed on the fly. I suspect the editor has a better shot than Penn as director or writer, Emile Hirsch as actor, or the cinematography. The Academy admires fakery, sets, costumes and literature. As an organic whole, Into the Wild is an entertaining, thought-provoking emotionally rewarding movie. But it's a long-shot as an Academy contender.

David Fincher's Zodiac is another movie that isn't gaining Oscar momentum. It was well-reviewed last summer March, and many critics will include it on their ten-bests. But its time has come and gone. It was an expensive big-budget studio failure. It's indulgently long, and Fincher's insistence on verisimilitude meant not giving viewers a satisfying narrative arc. The movie has its merits--hell, it will be on my ten best list---but an Oscar contender needs to have enthusiastic supporters, few detractors and a passionate push behind it. It needs confidence. Zodiac has too many deficits. Paramount is already gearing up to make a major Oscar push for Fincher's next, starring Brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett as star-crossed lovers twisted by time, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.

I got into a heated debate with someone in the office yesterday about Enchanted, the animated/live action comedy that brilliantly spoofs Disney's classic animated musicals. This movie is just what the doctor ordered: entertaining, witty, engaging, delirious fun. It's a three-quadrant accessible family musical that will grow and grow and grow through the holidays. Whatever it opens at Wednesday, it will keep building: the movie could wind up one of the year's biggest grossers. Men will initially resist the chick flick's charms, but they should eventually get pulled into Enchanted's vortex. Amy Adams gives a full-blown star breakout performance (on Oprah, a clip of her from Charlie Wilson's War caused both Hanks and Roberts to chime, "Amy Adams," naming her the It Girl of the moment). Adams could land, Julie Andrews-style, a nomination for best actress. (Why Disney isn't thumping the movie harder, I don't know. Most of us media folks didn't see it until last week. UPDATE: And yet again, the Academy screening committee in its wisdom has scheduled Alvin and the Chipmunks during its prime December viewing season, and not Enchanted.)

But Enchanted is not your standard-issue Oscar movie. Director Kevin Lima (Tarzan, 102 Dalmations) has made a successful crossover from animation. Bill Kelly's script is witty and smart and should land a nomination. But will it? Let's be honest about the Academy. They are SNOBS! They are high-minded, nose-in-the-air, classists. The more literary, historic, and pretentious the better. (EW's Mark Harris explains the Oscar predicting game.) The last animated film to make it to Best Picture was Beauty and the Beast (for which Lima did character animation), before there was an animation category. Sure, I'd also like to see the best-reviewed movie of the year, Pixar's fabulous Ratatouille, score screenplay, director and picture. It deserves it. But it won't necessarily happen.

The trick with Oscar predicting is feeling where the momentum is going and looking into the future, down the line. The best prognosticators have seen the movies, one. And two, they're not rooting for their favorites. They're staying ruthlessly objective. Do I have some pics I'm rooting for? Sure. But I have to take that into account and remain clear-eyed. The year I let emotions get the better of me and predicted that Beauty and the Beast would win, I was so wrong.

As for the Academy docs short list of 15, they are the the best-known and best-reviewed: the full list is on the jump.

Weekend Boxoffice: Bee Beats Gangster

While American Gangster is still kicking ass at the the boxoffice, family-friendly Bee Movie finally took the weekend, reports Variety.

In case you missed Jerry Seinfeld ripping apart Larry King, enjoy this clip. My sympathies are with King.

As expected Lions for Lambs was dead on arrival:

"Lions" struggled to find an aud, grossing an estimated $6.7 million from 2,215 runs. Directed by Redford, "Lions" came in 4th. It's the latest in a string of movies dealing with U.S. policy abroad and the war on terror that haven't been able to rally substantial box office grosses.

Weekend Boxoffice: American Gangster yes, Lions for Lambs, No

American Gangster should continue to dominate the boxoffice this weekend. It is unlikely that Robert Redford's Lions for Lambs will gain much traction. Here's Variety's review, which seems pretty indicative of the critical drubbing the movie received today. I can't imagine how much money MGM/UA will lose on this one--they've spent a fortune on the advertising. The movie cost about $40-million---not a little indie. Here's Pamela McClintock's take on what's at stake for UA. Finally, this is not how Tom Cruise fans want to see him. No Country for Old Men, on the other hand, scored with critics across the board, and is heading into serious Oscar contender territory.

Fandango Five – Ticket Sales (as of 11/09/07 11:00 a.m. PT):

Movie Fandango User Rating % Fandango Sales

American Gangster Must Go” 21%

Fred Claus “Go” 14%

Bee Movie “Go” 10%

Lions for Lambs “No” 3%

No Country for Old Men “Must Go” 2%

Fandango Weekly Poll (as of 11/09/07 9:00 a.m. PT):

Among the upcoming holiday-themed movies, which one are you most anticipating?

Fred Claus 60%

This Christmas 25%

Thomas Kinkade’s Home for Christmas 6%

The Perfect Holiday 5%

Christmas in Wonderland 4%

American Gangster Breaks Boxoffice Record

American Gangster kicked ass at the boxoffice this weekend, reports Variety:

Universal's Denzel Washington-Russell Crowe starrer "American Gangster" smacked the weekend box office, becoming the highest grossing R-rated crime-drama in history. Pollination of DreamWorks Animation's "Bee Movie" combined to give the film biz its first honey-sweet frame in nearly two months. Directed by Ridley Scott and produced by Imagine Entertainment, "Gangster" grossed an estimated $46.3 million from 3,054 locations, outpacing expectations and easily beating "Bee" for the No. 1 spot. It's the best opening for both Crowe and Washington, as well as the highest opener of the fall to date.

If you want a treat, download Charlie Rose's Friday show on American Gangster (as soon as they post it). First, Rose interviews Brian Grazer, Denzel Washington, Russell Crowe and Ridley Scott, who all get in a word or two. I found myself recognizing how tricky it must be to handle those two big movie stars. (I found my SAG Q & A for Master and Commander with Crowe and Paul Bettany rough going.) While I give Grazer credit for pushing the movie through and recognizing its commercial power, I found it odd that writer Steve Zaillian was missing from the proceedings. He's the one who sent his script to Scott, after it had been set aside by director Antoine Fuqua.

The second part of the Charlie Rose show is a hoot. He interviews not only exec producer Nicholas Pileggi (who sounds like he wrote the damn thing), cop-turned-lawyer Richie Roberts (who is played by Crowe), New York Magazine writer Mark Jacobson (whose original piece was about Harlem druglord Frank Lucas, but not Roberts), and Lucas himself, undiminished in a wheelchair. They genially debate the various versions of the story, and Roberts smiles at Lucas with obvious affection--he still represents him, and has taken on the education of Lucas's son, who is his godson. Roberts said that the movie softens how tough he had to be to bring Lucas down. Lucas is still larger than life, while admitting that he did terrible things that he is ashamed of. Everyone in the room clearly gets a big kick out of him.

I like these photos of rival kingpins Nicky Barnes and Frank Lucas. Lucas says that while Barnes moved more drugs than he did, he made way more money because he eliminated the middleman by going to the source, obtaining his drugs in Southeast Asia. Pileggi made the point that none of this would have been possible if everyone involved in getting the drugs to market hadn't been corrupt--the suppliers, the military, and the New York cops who took a piece of Lucas's action. Lucas was more than happy, in the end, to help Roberts bring the corrupt New York cops down.

Here's the trailer:

Weekend Boxoffice: American Gangster vs. Seinfeld's Bee

American Gangster, despite its length and R-rating, should dominate the weekend boxoffice. (Variety's Pam McClintock agrees. As does Fantasy Moguls.)

The strength of the movie is that it's based on real people. The script was written organically, Oscar-winning screenwriter Steve Zaillian (Schindler's List) told my UCLA class (who adored the film). He interviewed Harlem kingpin Frank Lucas (who was a tad scary) and cop-turned-defense lawyer Richie Roberts at great length. Zaillian took real people and figured out how to interweave their lives and stories. It took him a very long time to do this. It was a painful process. (Check out this interview in Script Magazine.)

But the results speak for themselves (the movie scored an excellent 81% on rottentomatoes.com). As Ken Turan says in his LAT review, the movie is character-based. It's about these two men, living parallel lives. The charismatic, sociopathic criminal is in some ways a well-balanced family man who adores his mother and wife. The ruthlessly honest cop has a disfunctional family life; his wife leaves him and he realizes that he is in no position to raise his son. And finally, the cop and the criminal respect and like each other more than a lot of other people in their lives.

As directed by Ridley Scott, the movie doesn't have the fake patina of so many studio big-budget pictures. He shot the $100-million film in real neighborhoods with multiple cameras, on the fly. Denzel Washington and Russell Crowe spent time with their real-life characters too. The movie feels authentic--even if Crowe is a tad out of his element as a New Jersey Jewish cop.

This picture will score big with urban audiences, just as Scarface did. It's a gangster classic.

Here's this weekend's Fandango Five Ticket Sales (as of 11/02/07 9:00 a.m. PT):

Movie Fandango User Rating % Fandango Sales

American Gangster “Must Go” 35%

Bee Movie “Go” 20%

Saw IV “Go” 14%

30 Days of Night “Go” 4%

Dan in Real Life “Go” 3%

Fandango Weekly Poll (as of 11/02/07 9:00 a.m. PT)

Saw IV is now playing. Of the following horror franchises, which is your favorite?

Saw 38%

Halloween 29%

A Nightmare on Elm Street 23%

Friday the 13th 10%

American Gangster Reviews

While he finds much to admire, Variety's Todd McCarthy has some issues with Ridley Scott's sprawling Harlem gangster epic American Gangster. While I grant that in some ways Russell Crowe is miscast as an honest Jewish cop from New Jersey, he runs with the role anyway. You need a star of some heft to stand up to the powerful Denzel Washington as a real-life Harlem drug lord.

The movie is hugely entertaining, and should score handily at the boxoffice, no matter its length, as well as with Oscar voters. It could be this year's The Departed. And Washington is a shoo-in for a best actor nod. I am assuming that most critics are not going to be as tough on American Gangster as McCarthy. If they are, that could hurt American Gangster's Oscar longevity. UPDATE: Here's Screen International.

American Gangster: A Grazer Tale

Based on American Gangster's stellar advance tracking with all audiences (well ahead of The Departed, thanks to the urban demo), the Ridley Scott movie should be a big hit when it opens November 2; it could go all the way to the Oscars. But did the movie have to cost so much?

Claudia Eller's LAT story doesn't make clear that Brian Grazer, the 500-pound producer gorilla on the Universal lot, was able to push the movie through with a $100-million price tag--even after the studio had already written off a $30-million loss --in the wake of Stacey Snider's defection to DreamWorks in February 2006.

Grazer cannily took advantage of Universal's need to send a message of strength and viability; brand-new co-chairmen Marc Shmuger and David Linde went ahead with the deluxe deal. If Snider had not left, she would likely have kept the budget down. The key players got paid full price, with rich back ends. Denzel Washington had already gotten paid his upfront guarantee pay-or-play, so he signed on just for his gross. (He also got paid half his $20-million fee on Inside Man.) This way even when American Gangster makes money, so do gross participants Washington, Scott, Grazer and Russell Crowe. That adds up to a huge piece of the final gross going out the door--in all likelihood, some 37.5 25% of the gross. ($37.5 was Universal's all-time high, on Grinch.) The studios are all trying to not go over that 25%, which is still a hideous percentage.

UPDATE: Studio insiders argue that they believed that the movie demanded an epic scale, so they returned to writer Steve Zaillian's original vision. They negotiated overage protection with Grazer and Scott. The gross package was pulled back to 25% from near 60% if everyone had gotten their full cut. American Gangster was shot fast and tight with multiple cameras on real locations, and cost about half of what Michael Mann's Miami Vice cost. And the music budget was rigorously monitored, coming in at just $2 million.

Here's Defamer's take. And the trailer: