Who came out ahead and behind on their Cannes jaunt this year?

Disney

The studio won big by using Cannes as the European launch for Pixar’s Up. John Lasseter and Pete Docter had the time of their lives being treated seriously by the most prestigious festival in the world, which gave them some auteur cred they wouldn’t get any other way. At Disney’s after-party on the Carlton pier, Lasseter got misty-eyed. “It’s one of the greatest things to happen in our careers,” he said. The often stuffy festival stepped up to the times, passing out 3-D glasses to the opening night black-tie glitterati at the Palais.

Disney also took advantage of the global media to introduce the motion capture pic Christmas Carol, bringing director Bob Zemeckis and Jim Carrey to the Croisette for a snowy photo opportunity. (I remember meeting Carrey for the first time when he came to Cannes to promo The Mask.)

Miramax

On the other hand, it’s utterly depressing that Disney may be putting its specialty subsidiary Miramax on the block. Studio boss Robert Iger wants to stick to his family-movie brand/theme park mandate, and Miramax doesn’t fit with its other businesses. While the studio denies the unit is for sale, their asking price is said to be $1.2 billion; buyers are interested, especially in the Tiffany library built by the Weinsteins, but are waiting for the price to come down.

Miramax topper Daniel Battsek has done a solid if not spectacular job, including Oscar winners Tsotsi and No Country for Old Men. But many projects were too pricey to turn a profit in the tough specialty market. Battsek kept a low profile on the Croisette this year, with no buys announced. As Harvey and Bob Weinstein struggle in a sour economy to keep their company afloat, the irony is that if they had not only raised but made some money, they might have been able to afford to buy their company back.

Harvey and Bob Weinstein

15 years after Pulp Fiction, the brothers brought Quentin Tarantino to the Cannes main competition with the raucous World War II drama Inglourious Basterds. Loaded with expectations (always a dicey position) the movie played fine for the global press, especially with its top-notch European cast, but will face a tougher time at home in a challenging environment for specialty pictures. To Tarantino’s credit, he shot it in four languages, French, Italian, German and English. The movie breaks out French actors Denis Menochet (who stars in Ridley Scott’s Robin Hood) and Melanie Laurent as well as German actors Daniel Bruhl, Diane Kruger and language whiz Christoph Waltz (who won best actor). Here's Hollywood Wiretap.

Less interesting in some ways are the titular Basterds, led by a one-note Brad Pitt as a Nazi hunter, supported by Eli Roth and Til Schweiger. It feels like this part of the movie was given short shrift. Tarantino, who was in a rush to Cannes, now has some time to fine-tune his film. Irish actor Michael Fassbender (who also scored in Fish Tank) may get a new scene when Tarantino returns to the editing room. At two hours and 27 minutes, Tarantino has final cut.

The Weinsteins also debuted for buyers and press a featurette made by Rob Marshall of his musical Nine, which was adapted by the late Anthony Minghella from the Broadway musical inspired by Federico Fellini’s 8 ½. In the role of the womanizing director having a midlife crisis (played on-stage by Raul Julia and Antonio Banderas) is Daniel Day Lewis, who looks handsome and charismatic in the movie. (Yes, he sports an Italian accent. And sings. And dances.) Much of the story, like Marshall’s Oscar-winning Chicago, unfolds in the director’s mind as he muses over the women in his life: his mother (Sophia Loren), the village prostitute (Fergie), lover (Nicole Kidman), wife (Marion Cotillard), mistress (Penelope Cruz), interviewer (Kate Hudson) and costume designer (Judi Dench). The movie looks sumptuous, elaborate, visually dazzling. It also looks expensive, and was shot in London and Cinecitta (estimates range from $80 to 90 million). The risk for the Weinsteins: is there a market big enough to pay back the cost of a studio-scale all-stops-out musical? The movie opens during awards season, November 25.

There’s good advance word on John Hillcoat's adaptation of Cormac McCarthy’s The Road starring Viggo Mortensen and Charlize Theron, but it looks like a narrow niche up-market film. While the Weinsteins may get what they want: renewed cred from a series of well-reviewed movies that might make it into the Oscar race, these days, that can be as much a curse as a blessing, as Oscar campaigns can turn a profitable movie into a money loser.

Bob Berney, Bill Pohlad, Jane Campion

Ex-Picturehouse chief Bob Berney and his new partner Bill Pohlad made official their new distribution combine, which will enter the middle ground between art-house distributors Sony Pictures Classics, IFC and Magnolia and remaining studio subsidiaries Fox Searchlight, Miramax and Focus Features. Berney and Pohlad (who are waiting for their company name to clear) boldly acquired all U.S. rights to Jane Campion’s Bright Star sight unseen ahead of the fest (for about $2.5 million). They saw the film two weeks ahead of Cannes, where it played well, but won no prizes. While Berney plans to target young women (it will also score with Anglophiles, Jane Austen fans, and the Academy), the movie is an austere and tragic love story that lacks mainstream appeal. But the two stars, Ben Whishaw and Abbie Cornish, are potential breakouts. After a six-year-gap, Campion reestablishes herself as a major director. But she has never been a particularly commercial one.

Sony Pictures Classics and Pedro Almodovar

Steady as they go, Michael Barker and Tom Bernard came out of Cannes having landed the top two prize winners, Michael Haneke’s The White Ribbon and Jacques Audiard’s A Prophet. They came into the fest with Pedro Almodovar’s Broken Embraces, starring Penelope Cruz, which is not the best of the Spanish auteur’s films, but is more fun to watch than most flicks. It was not a factor with the jury, either. But it wasn’t hurt by being in the festival, which sorely needed the combined star power of the director and Cruz.

While American art-house audiences don’t pay much attention to Cannes prizes, they do push the films' countries of origin to submit them for the foreign language Oscar. Thus SPC now has two more potential Oscar submissions for next year, from Germany and France. The Envelope looks at how Cannes impacts the Oscar race.

Word from the Cannes jury is that the votes were often split along director vs. actor lines. (UPDATE: Actress-director Asia Argento said it was more male vs.female; well, except for her, the directors were male.) This makes sense, as actors, writers and directors think very differently. As the reportedly fractious group, led by French actress Isabelle Huppert, talked over the selections (in English) three times during the fest--they saw 20 films-- they eliminated certain films that didn't raise enough votes, like Bright Star and Broken Embraces. Inglourious Basterds and Antichrist were more admired by the actors than the directors, while Fish Tank and Thirst were directors' pictures--and split the jury prize. The votes on the top two films, The White Ribbon and A Prophet were very close. But no award was unanimous. The most contentious debate was over best director Brilliante Mendoza, for Kinatay, which critics despised. The jurors weren't allowed to talk to anyone, and during deliberations, they even gave up their cell phones.

Focus Features and Ang Lee

The decision to bring a filmmaker to the fest is a calculation that, in the case of Focus and Ang Lee’s Taking Woodstock, backfired. I enjoyed the movie thoroughly and with some marketing fixes it could play well in the United States. It is an utterly American movie, culturally sophisticated, sweet and tender, mood-shifting, and fun. Screenwriter James Schamus (and Focus topper) and Lee nail the period. “It was a time when people had t-shirts that didn’t have logos on them,” Lee says.

Schamus and Lee explore the cultural moment that Woodstock crystallized—the ways that old and new were clashing and changing. This behind-the-scenes drama focuses on a family dynamic: two uptight Jewish parents (Henry Goodman and Imelda Staunton) and their vibrant, closeted gay son (Demetri Martin) who, when shoved up against the counterculture, breaks out of their world. Comedy Central star Martin never dreamed of a movie career, but the real discovery is radiant theater actor Jonathan Groff as Michael Lang. Most of the time, Lee and Schamus found that lingo from the period didn’t play, and cut much of it out. But when Groff said words like “groovy” and “far out,” he did so with such conviction that they left them in.

Taking Woodstock is not the sort of movie that goes over well at Cannes. It isn’t even what you’d call a critics’ picture. Lee must have wanted to come to the festival that had always treated him well. He probably wishes now that he hadn’t.

UPDATE: Focus came out ahead with its other Cannes entry, Park Chan-Wook's jury-prize-co-winner Thirst, which is already a hit in South Korea and will likely be a strong genre contender when Focus releases it stateside later this year. Focus Features International continues to be one of the strongest foreign sales companies, because it boasts the A-list projects (like Almodovar's Broken Embraces and the latest pics from Sam Mendes, Roberto Begnini, Zhang Yimou, Sofia Coppola and Noah Baumbach) everyone still wants to buy. "We're flying on all cylinders," says Schamus. "We've got our fingers in so many little pies all over the world."

Alejandro Amenabar's Agora

This Egyptian period drama cost $50 million Euros--and needed Cannes support. It didn't get it. The reviews were mixed, although Rachel Weisz managed to survive. The buyers waited on the sidelines for the price to decline. Clearly, even name stars and a big budget do not guarantee an American sale. Producers can't count on North American money any more. The Wrap looks at the Cannes economy.

IFC: Lars von Trier and Ken Loach

IFC came into the fest having bought the three-part Red Riding Trilogy, and then picked up Lars von Trier’s Antichrist, which built up a swell of want-to-see from Cannes controversy. IFC will show the movie uncut in a few U.S. cinemas and then trim it—working with the director—to show it on VOD. Honestly? It’s a movie-as-therapy that helped to pull Danish director von Trier out of a bout of depression that threatened to keep him from making movies. He indulged himself completely; the movie is a well-made, manipulative mess. Willem Dafoe and Charlotte Gainsbourg give their all; she totally deserved the best actress prize. Any student of von Trier will want to see the movie. The distrib also picked up the feel-good movie of Cannes, Ken Loach's Waiting for Eric, starring soccer player Eric Cantona.

Terry Gilliam's The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus

The reviews were kind (here's Variety), suggesting that Gilliam returned to form with his latest film--despite losing Heath Ledger in mid-shoot, replaced by Johnn Depp, Jude Law and Colin Farrell. American buyers, who saw the film in L.A. and NY before the festival, or attended an early screening in the market, were playing a waiting game. Nobody is taking risks any more.

Oscilloscope

Adam Yauch's neophyte distrib Oscilloscope Labs bought North American rights to a Cannes film in the official selection, a doc, natch, Michel Gondry’s look at his own family, The Thorn in the Heart.

Francis Ford Coppola's Tetro

Finally, Francis Ford Coppola is rebuilding his career and used a little Cannes pixie dust to help him do it. No, he didn't pull Tetro into the competition. But he opened the Director's Fortnight and was welcomed there. The movie, which he wrote himself with an autobiographical flair, was deemed an improvement over his last, Youth Without Youth, and more accessible and personal than anything he has done in some time. You can sense a filmmaker testing his chops, feeling his way. The next one could be even better. Hopefully he'll stay away from Vincent Gallo. He's toxic.

My Cannes Ten Best Films:

1. Up (check out Rotten Tomatoes reviews)

2. Mr. Hulot's Holiday

3. Fish Tank

4. Drag Me to Hell

5. Bright Star

6. The White Ribbon

7. Taking Woodstock

8. Humpday

9. Samson and Delilah

10. Inglourious Basterds

Disappointments:

11. Broken Embraces

12. Antichrist

13. Tetro

14. I Love You Philip Morris

UPDATE: Here are the results of IndieWire's poll of 16 English-language film writers. And IFC rounds up the Cannes wrap-ups.

The most remarkable thing about the top-ranked players in the Forbes Star Currency list (which measures power, money and fame) is that Angelina Jolie competes head-on with Johnny Depp, her partner Brad Pitt, and Will Smith. It helps that she nabbed an Oscar nom for Changeling. But she's ranked so high because of Wanted. She nabbed $15 million to anchor that movie, because she's an action star, the first ever to compete on a level playing field with her male peers. The studios will even give Jolie a role written for a man: she replaced Tom Cruise in Phil Noyce's upcoming studio thriller Edwin A. Salt.

There was a time when movie audiences would not accept a woman with a gun. James Cameron's kick-ass heroines Sigourney Weaver and Linda Hamilton were understood to be fighting to save the world--and protect children. Somehow, from Tomb Raider to going mano a mano with Pitt in Mr. and Mrs. Smith, Jolie has been able to push the limits for women in action.

There is a downside to Jolie's action stardom, though, just as there is with Cruise. She's bigger than life. She's a huge celebrity. She's distracting.

Cruise and Jolie can be formidable in big movie star vehicles. Jolie was the only actor in Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow who could comfortably inhabit that stylized fake universe. But what happens when she plays a real character in A Mighty Heart, Changeling or The Good Shepherd? No matter how skillfully she performs, she's still Angelina Jolie.

Big movie stars are a distraction, especially when they are asked to be authentic real people, based on true stories, in naturalistic dramas. Cruise never quite disappeared into his role as heroic Colonel Claus von Stauffenberg in Valkyrie. In theory the movie could have been made with a less well-known actor (who could have done the German accent), for less money and potentially more profit. (But Cruise was able to get it made.)

Meanwhile, Cruise is trying to claw his way back into commercial contention with The Tourist, Bharat Nalluri's remake of the 2005 French thriller Anthony Zimmer, co-starring Charlize Theron, for Spyglass, and he's also in talks to star opposite Denzel Washington in David Cronenberg's film adaptation of the Robert Ludlum novel The Matarese Circle, for MGM (not UA). This should be well-tailored to the Cruise persona.

There's little question that audiences want to see stars like Jolie and Cruise in movie star mode. And for the moment, both seem inclined to give them what they want.

Fun reads: At Film.com, Tim Appelo begs Brad and Angelina to save the Oscars, while Mark Harris explains at The Observer that the Academy is not, contrary to popular belief, a monolith. Film Experience examines the fates of the 2004 Vanity Fair Hollywood cover girls.

When my family and I saw the trailer for Paul Blart Mall Cop over the holidays, we all knew it would be a hit. But this big? New York Mag defines a new genre: the Blart. And Stephen Schaefer commends both new comedy star Kevin James and employable Oscar contender Mickey Rourke for recent smart career moves.

Some friends of mine are so afraid of Google they refuse to use it. Slate defines yet another Google triumph: Google Gear.

Steal this: Online retail giant Amazon is selling DVDs of 900 new indie and foreign films, priced from $5.99.

The Oscar nominations are in and The Dark Knight did not make it to best picture. The Reader landed the slot instead, also scoring noms for Stephen Daldry for best director (over The Dark Knight's Chris Nolan), David Hare for adapted screenplay and Kate Winslet (instead of Revolutionary Road). The Dark Knight was in the running though, with eight noms, including a posthumous nom for Heath Ledger, who is the frontrunner for best supporting actor.

Harvey Weinstein is a happy man.

A late-entry in the Oscar race, The Reader was barely finished in time. But Weinstein knew he had a winner and several Oscar-watchers were telling me Golden Globes weekend that their Academy pals weren't saying they voted for The Dark Knight. They were hearing they liked The Reader, which finally landed five noms. (Penelope Cruz also landed a nom for supporting actress for TWC's Vicky Cristina Barcelona, but Woody Allen was shut out for original screenplay.)

Media prognosticators who reach a consensus on these things aren't always right--check out The Gurus 'O Gold. Everybody said The Dark Knight--including me--because it was hard to figure anything else for that slot. The Reader was one of several possibilities, including two other films produced by Scott Rudin, Doubt (five noms) and Revolutionary Road (three). Rudin took his name off The Reader when he kept wrangling with Weinstein.

The other news was actors' actors Melissa Leo and Richard Jenkins landing nods. Many Academy voters loved Sony Pictures Classics' Sundance pick-up Frozen River, which also landed an unexpected nom for Courtney Hunt for original screenplay. The nom for Jenkins' quiet performance in The Visitor meant that Clint Eastwood did not get a slot for Gran Torino, nor did Leonardo DiCaprio for Revolutionary Road, which landed three noms, for costume design, art direction and supporting actor Michael Shannon. Eastwood had to console himself with Changeling's three noms (Jolie, cinematography and art direction). Gran Torino was shut out.

Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie are also happy today, as both won noms. Jolie won an Oscar in 2000 for Girl Interrupted, while Pitt hadn't been nominated since his supporting role in Twelve Monkeys in 1996.

The best actress category was open for some surprises. Button's Cate Blanchett did not make it, nor did critics' faves Sally Hawkins and Kristin Scott Thomas, who were overlooked mainly because not enough people saw art-house entries Happy-Go-Lucky and I've Loved You So Long. Oscar perennial Mike Leigh did land his sixth Oscar nom, for his Happy-Go-Lucky original screenplay. He has never won.

Animated film Wall-E, from Pixar, didn't make it to best picture but it did earn six noms, including original screenplay, tying with Beauty and the Beast (which had four music noms). Pixar's Ratatouille earned five last year and won best animated feature, as Wall-E is likely to do.

Here's the list of noms, led by David Fincher's The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, with 13. Someone asked me to make my Oscar pics before this morning, and I backed out. You have to get a feel for the whole list. Heading toward the Academy Awards night on February 22, Benjamin Button will be slugging it out with Slumdog Millionaire. But Milk also did very well, which is why I'm still picking Sean Penn to beat Mickey Rourke, partly because The Wrestler landed only two acting noms. Milk is going to have to win something.

UPDATE: Tom O'Neil explains why Bruce Springsteen didn't make the cut.

The noms list is on the jump:

Oddly, at this stage of the Oscar race, while the five Best Picture candidates--Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Milk and Slumdog Millionaire--seem obvious, other races are harder to call.

While EW fearlessly forecasts the top five in the two actor races, these picks are far from clear.

While I agree that actresses Meryl Streep, Sally Hawkins and Kate Winslet are locks, an upset is possible in this category: Frozen River's Melissa Leo or I've Loved You so Long's Kristin Scott Thomas could steal slots from Changeling's Angelina Jolie or Rachel Getting Married's Anne Hathaway.

Among the men, while The Curious Life of Benjamin Button is a strong overall candidate, I'm not sure Brad Pitt is a lock--some find the digital aspects of his performance strange, even creepy. Who could get in there instead? While Revolutionary Road may seem to lack support, it is in fact just the sort of challenging actors' vehicle that the Academy tends to go for. Leonardo DiCaprio could be a surprise entry here. And The Visitor's Richard Jenkins, an actors' actor, is not beyond the realm of possibility.

Here's Gold Derby on the DGA, Vulture's Oscar Watch and Dave Kehr in the NYT on Oscar's obsession with Important Movies.

Universal, Miramax and Paramount/Warners are heaving huge sighs of relief that the Golden Globes rewarded Frost/Nixon, Doubt and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button with five nominations apiece. The three films had been virtually overlooked by influential critics' groups in L.A. and N.Y. this week. Only Frost/Nixon and Benjamin Button were nominated in the Globes' best feature drama category, though, which tends to carry more weight than the comedy category. Doubt scored four acting noms, plus screenplay for John Patrick Shanley.

The Globes are voted on by a relatively small and insular group, the 80-member Hollywood Foreign Press Association, who are often wined and dined by studios eager to get the extra boost of attention from Globe noms at the height of the pre-Oscar nomination season when Academy voters are deciding which DVDs to watch. The noms are not predictive, but do help build momentum.

Thus although the Globes saw fit to only recognize Sean Penn's performance in Gus Van Sant's very American and very political Milk (which won best film from the NYFCC), that should not hurt its overall awards chances. Nor would this group be particularly drawn to a fable beloved by both American moviegoers and critics, The Dark Knight. And Gran Torino's masterful, reflexive performance by actor/director Clint Eastwood is more likely to play to the Academy than the HFPA. (Oddly, they rewarded Eastwood for score for the Changeling and best song for Gran Torino.)

For example, Harvey Weinstein has always done well with The Globes and won their support for Stephen Daldry's The Reader, set in post-World War II Germany and starring Kate Winslet, who also stars in her husband Sam Mendes' nominated drama Revolutionary Road, for which she grabbed a best actress nom. Both films grabbed four noms. And Winslet was given a supporting actress nom for The Reader, to prevent her from competing with herself. Both films needed a boost, as they were also neglected by the critics groups.

Well on their way to awards season glory are Danny Boyle's Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) and Woody Allen's Vicky Cristina Barcelona (Weinstein Co.). which nabbed four noms apiece. And Searchlight's The Wrestler is solidifying more acting noms for Mickey Rourke and Marisa Tomei.

Ben Stiller's Paramount comedy Tropic Thunder scored two noms for Tom Cruise and Robert Downey, Jr., which isn't so surprising when you consider that the HFPA is often voting for who will attend the Golden Globes Awards party. Thus both Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie gained noms for Button and Changeling, a feat that won't necessarily be repeated come Oscar nominations morning January 22.

The noms in the comedy categories are unlikely to have much impact on the Academy voters, who tend to reward gravitas, although Sally Hawkins, who was won best actress from the NYFCC, could score a best actress slot on January 22. Meryl Streep is more likely to land an Oscar nom for Doubt than for the raucous musical Mamma Mia!

Kristin Scott Thomas finally got some recognition for her role in the French film I've Loved You So Long, which was also nommed in the foreign film category, along with Jan Troell's Everlasting Moments, the Swedish Oscar entry, which is picking up support.

I've been taking a wait-and-see approach on the Oscar race. You really don't know until you screen all the pictures. But enough other people are seeing them, now, for me to take a stab at where the race is right now. And nobody I know of has seen Australia, Seven Pounds, The Reader or Gran Torino.

The movies are falling into five categories.

Best Picture frontrunners with likely deep support:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight (but Warners has to delicately calibrate this campaign)
Doubt
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

Likely acting nods, but the pics need critical support and awards recognition:
Changeling (Angelina Jolie)
Defiance (Liev Schreiber)
Frost/Nixon (Frank Langella)
I've Loved You So Long (Kristin Scott Thomas)
Milk (Sean Penn)
Seven Pounds (Will Smith)
W. (Josh Brolin)
The Wrestler (Mickey Rourke)

Little Indies that Could:
Frozen River (Melissa Leo)
Happy-Go-Lucky (Sally Hawkins)
Rachel Getting Married (Anne Hathaway, Rosemarie Dewitt)
The Visitor (Richard Jenkins)
Wendy and Lucy (Michelle Williams)

Best Animated Feature:
Kung Fu Panda
Wall-E (could go all the way if it lands enough noms)
Waltz with Bashir

Best Foreign Film
The Baader Meinhof Complex
The Class
Everlasting Moments
Waltz with Bashir

I saw Changeling for the second time Thursday night. It's as good as I remember it from last May at Cannes. And it's just the kind of movie that Academy members will appreciate--it played well at the Academy premiere.

Clint Eastwood beautifully evokes Los Angeles in 1928, when women were passive creatures bossed around by men, when the LAPD was corrupt and lawless, and when the real Christine Collins made news headlines when the police tried to return to her a son who wasn't hers. When she refuses to submit to their version of the truth, they clap her in an insane asylum.

Angelina Jolie is more than fine as Collins. She says she modeled the role on her mother; she seems dead-on for the period. She's sympathetic; we care about her and root for her, and get very angry on her behalf. That may be what the movie has going for it the most, given our lack of trust in authority right now. The movie will play strictly for adults, who may come out in droves, starved for material as they are. And Jolie should easily grab an Oscar nom.

John Malkovich and Jeffrey Donovan are both strong, as her advocate and nemesis, respectively. And Michael Kelly, one of Variety's ten actors to watch, also pops.

I admire Eastwood's ethic of working fast and hard on multiple projects. I also applaud each film's organic shape and size, and the director's resistance to formulaic three-act structures. But there's something wrong with the trajectory of Changeling's last half hour. As long as the film hangs on Jolie, it works, but it takes a detour in its last third to focus on a serial killer mystery before returning to Collins' search for closure. Some Eastwood movies such as Flags of Our Fathers and Changeling seem to be missing that last final polish.

Peter Bart reflects on how Clint Eastwood has changed over the decades: for the better.

It sccored a not-so-great 51% with critics on Rotten Tomatoes (1979's The Changeling scored 77%). Here are reviews from Michael Wilmington and Todd McCarthy.

Read Steve Gaydos's report on his October 22 Q & A with Changeling screenwriter J. Michael "Joe" Straczynski on the jump.

Here's the trailer:

USA Today has a first look at Clint Eastwood's upcoming Gran Torino, his second film for 2008 (it opens December 17) and possibly his last performance as an actor. (They talk to him, too.)

Look at him! No, it's not a Dirty Harry sequel--nor will there ever be one, Eastwood has said. But I have to say he's still dangerous and sexy at 78. Here's John Horn on why Eastwood can still make studio/indie movies that defy industry "wisdom," like this and Changeling. They don't HAVE to open wide.

[Hat Tip: Slashfilm]

When it comes to this year's Oscar race, don't believe everything you read. So many movies haven't been seen yet, from Revolutionary Road and The Reader to Doubt and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. I hear Kate Winslet, Meryl Streep and Cate Blanchett are all strong Best Actress contenders, but until we see the films...everyone's talking through their hat.

And the actress race is not as strong a field as people would have you think. I'm not clear on whether the Academy likes Rachel Getting Married and Anne Hathaway, for example. She gives a great, surprising performance, but Academy voters are not necessarily the target for this movie, which is playing younger. I wonder if Mad Men vet Rosemary DeWitt isn't a stronger candidate in the weak supporting category. (Debra Winger just doesn't have a juicy money scene.)

I'll check out how Clint Eastwood's Changeling plays at the Academy premiere Thursday night. Cannes is one thing, the reality of a fall release is another. I think that Changeling is a stronger shot than A Mighty Heart for Angelina Jolie, but nothing is certain with period dramas.

Speaking of which, I also need to see all of Australia before I make up my mind on Nicole Kidman. She's an accomplished and versatile member of the Oscar-winner club--but the Baz Luhrmann movie may not be a slam dunk Academy picture. The footage is looking broad and entertaining and romantic-- like King Solomon's Mines, say-- rather than epic and grand and Out of Africa. Which may be good news for its boxoffice potential. It all depends.

The one thing I'm sure of is that I've Loved You So Long's Kristin Scott Thomas will get nominated. Yes, she gives a great performance in a good movie that should play with Academy members. (UPDATE: it's opening day reviews are at 91% on Rotten Tomatoes.) But here's why she'll gain a slot:

1) She wears no makeup, looks awful and moves from shut-down depression to life.

2) She's a Brit who speaks French. (She's lived in France for 25 years.) This is huge.

3) She's done good work for a long time and is overdue (she was nominated once, for The English Patient).

4) Scott Thomas is also earning raves on Broadway for The Seagull. This does not hurt one little bit.

Tom Tapp and Stephen Schaefer agree. (Unlike Schaefer, I do not think that this is Keira Knightley's year for The Duchess, rated 61 % on Rotten Tomatoes, nor do I believe that Queen Latifah will get anywhere this awards season. The Secret Life of Bees is a hit, but did not score strong reviews--58% on Rotten Tomatoes.)

UPDATE: Yes, I left off indie upstarts Sally Hawkins, who creates from scratch the astonishing character of Poppy in Mike Leigh's Happy-Go-Lucky, which is holding its own at the b.o., and Frozen River's equally deserving Melissa Leo, a movie that many will never see. Both have earned rave reviews and have a shot IF the critics groups, Golden Globes, and SAG nominating committees reward them. The Academy actors need to watch their films.

Leo has the advantage of being a well-known veteran character actress, while Brit Hawkins has no following here. That didn't hurt another Leigh performer, Vera Drake's Imelda Staunton, who grabbed an Oscar nom. But there are some who find Hawkins' Poppy irritating. I also left off Michelle Williams in Kelly Reichardt's Wendy and Lucy, despite the fact that the crafty Cynthia Swartz is working on her campaign. Look for Williams to score with the Indie Spirit awards. Mini-distrib Oscilloscope simply doesn't have the scratch to mount a competitive campaign. I wish annual merit awards didn't depend on money. But they do.

Meanwhile, word from the foreign film voters is that it is another strong year. The full list of 67 foreign entries is up at indieWIRE.com , where Anthony Kaufman looks at the foreign Oscar race. And check out the exhaustive database at The Film Experience.

Of the four out of 67 that I've seen, France's The Class is innovative improvisational filmmaking, but not super-emotional; Sweden's Everlasting Moments from The Emigrants' Oscar-winning Jan Troell is a career-capping, moving masterpiece; Israel's animated documentary Waltz with Bashir could have a devastating impact on the Academy; and The Netherlands' Norway's O'Horten is a small jewel. I look forward to seeing more.

Let the Oscar campaign begin. Here's the NYT's profile of Changeling star Angelina Jolie.

Brad Pitt makes his photography debut at W Magazine this month, which assigned him to take up-close-and-personal shots of mama Jolie with her kids. It was a brilliant idea and will be hugely successful. The intimacy of the shots is something that would be difficult for any outsider to achieve.

[Hat Tip: Just Jared.]

As the awards season gets under way, the Gurus 'o Gold have made their first stabs at weighing the upcoming Oscar race. It's early days yet. Many of these films have not been seen. For example, the gurus know more about Frost/Nixon, based on Peter Morgan's play, than anything else, which may account for its front-runner status--which is not necessarily a good place to be at this stage.

Frost/Nixon also features two head-to-head male leads who can't be relegated to supporting status: Frank Langella and Michael Sheen. That's also true of Jamie Foxx (who won Best Actor for Ray) vs. Robert Downey, Jr. in The Soloist. Actors will bend over backwards to give Downey something this year, even if it's a supporting nod for the comedy Tropic Thunder, because Iron Man is not an Academy movie (except perhaps for technical categories like FX).

It's back to the norm this year with the actors--the best actor field looks much stronger and more competitive than the best actress list.

Meanwhile fan site IGN has launched some counter-programming, their first annual IGN Summer Movie Awards, honoring the high-octane films that their readers care about most. Winners include Best Summer Movie: The Dark Knight, Best Director: Iron Man's Jon Favreau, Best Animated Movie: Wall-E, directed by Andrew Stanton, and less predictably, Babe of the Summer: Natalie Martinez, star of Death Race.

The latest Changeling trailer has gone up. The Clint Eastwood drama stars Angelina Jolie in a true story about a woman in the 1920s who fought L.A. City Hall. Changeling debuted to solid reviews at Cannes in May, didn't show at Toronto and will screen at the upcoming New York Film Festival.

Clint has another movie coming up in December, Gran Torino, in which he plays a curmudgeonly Korean War veteran who attempts to reform a Korean kid who tries to steal his vintage car. It continues to amaze me that when most directors are hard-pressed to deliver one movie a year, this guy keeps coming up with two. The question is, which movie will be the one that goes all the way to the Oscars?

People posted their hard-won $14-million Brangelina baby pics Monday morning. Will the pics make it the best-selling cover story of the year, or will most folks see the pics online?

Universal has scored two $100-million hits so far this summer: The Incredible Hulk ($129 million) and Wanted ($112 million), and this weekend Hellboy II: The Golden Army opened at number one with an estimated $35.9 million. And the pics scored strong reviews as well: Guillermo del Toro's Hellboy sequel earned 88% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, and looks likely to also score more than $100 million, says Fantasy Moguls. (The Hulk came in at more modest 68, and Wanted at 72.)

Next weekend, while The Dark Knight will score the number one slot, Abba musical Mamma Mia! is expected to open well. And in August, there's still The Mummy 3: The Tomb of the Golden Emperor, which should easily pass the $100-million mark.

According to ace marketer-turned-co-chief of the studio Marc Shmuger, each of these pics has a distinct look, feel and audience appeal. Not one of these movies is like any other movie in the current marketplace. "They all know exactly what they are," he says, "and who they're for."

This helps to cut through the other lookalike pictures and pop the movies out. Could anyone not pay attention to the crazy green giant Hulk, Jolie and those curving bullets in Wanted, or bright red muscle-bound Hellboy, with his cut-off horns? And there's certainly nothing else in the market like Mamma Mia!, which opened well overseas this weekend.

Angelina Jolie gave birth to a boy and a girl by Caesarian section Saturday night. The obstretician who delivered the twins told the A.P. their names are Knox Leon and Vivienne Marcheline. UPDATE: Here's NYDN.

More creative baby-naming.

What do the movies Wanted and Eagle Eye have in common? They're fish-out-of-water scenarios that posit that an everyday schmuck --James McAvoy in one, Shia LaBeouf in the other--gets caught up in something exciting and scary involving a lot of action and danger and guns. It's the oldest trick in the book.

But the commercial recipe here is also to take a star with cred with the young male demo that opens movies (In Wanted's case, it's actually Angelina Jolie) and add them to the thriller genre mix with an older star (Wanted's Morgan Freeman, Eagle Eye's Billy Bob Thornton).

DreamWorks took this story idea by Steven Spielberg, got it written by John Glenn & Travis Adam Wright, Hillary Seitz and Dan McDermott, and when Spielberg didn't want to direct, added their Disturbia star-on-the-rise LaBeouf to the mix with his director, D. J. Caruso.

Here's the trailer for Eagle Eye, due in September.

DreamWorks should only dream that Eagle Eye does as well as Wanted--a great match of strong narrative and fab visual style that raises it above the ordinary--otherwise it's just another formula thriller.

The LA Film Fest opened with the premiere Thursday night of Universal's Wanted, followed by a Westwood block party. Spirits were high, because the smart director's showcase played.

Wanted is a stylish R-rated, violent adaptation of the comic books by Mark Millar and J. G. Jones. Producer Marc Platt matched up the comics with a series of screenwriters (Michael Brandt & Derek Haas and Chris Morgan) and director Timur Bekmambetov, the established Russian auteur of the stylized, over-the-top horror thriller Nightwatch and its Daywatch sequel, huge hits. Bekmambetov doesn't just do action, he said last night, smiling slyly. He also released a recent hit romantic comedy.

Bekmambetov's WMA agent Mike Simpson was over the moon because this is the kind of director Hollywood studios fantastize about--a Tim Burton with visual flair who can do action. Bekmambetov could do a Mission: Impossible or Bourne movie (that's Universal) if he wanted to. It was Universal that had the guts to put him on a $100-million actioner (Universal's official budget is $80 million)--and lured reliable stars Angelina Jolie and Morgan Freeman to support James McAvoy. The ads sell Jolie, who's terrific, but McAvoy carries his third American-accented picture--sans dialogue coach. He gives the movie a believable center. And yes, these people are playing actual characters. The movie breathes.

And it delivers action on a Bourne or Matrix level.

Suspension of disbelief is required. But the direction is so controlled, precise, detailed and inventive that you go for the ride. Bekmambetov has another plus: his own visual effects house in Russia, like Peter Jackson does in Wellywood. The f/x by Bazelevs are superb. Jolie and McAvoy skip along elevated subways, do metal-bending aerial car stunts, and boast special skills that enable them to alter the laws of gravity. SPOILER ALERT: Just when I was wondering when they'd stop working so hard and get sexy, the movie delivers a major kiss. And there's a stunning train derailment off a mountain abyss.

Assuming Wanted plays widely when it opens June 27 (a lot of arguments Thursday night were about whether it was a two-or-four-quadrant movie), McAvoy is signed up for two sequels. But, he predicts, "There won't be more than one. I don't want to do action movies." Bekmambetov was mum about whether he would return. (They will likely have to pay him.) He's setting up something called Saga, I hear. (Is it a movie version of the videogame?)

Here's Variety's review.

Universal could have a big summer. Marvel's remake of The Incredible Hulk dropped dramatically on its second weekend, but should be steady as they go. Next up is Guillermo del Toro's $100-million sequel, Hellboy II: The Golden Army, which closes the LA Film Fest. The movie musical Mamma Mia! has global pull with women thanks to its long-touring theater show. And Rob Cohen's $170-million (official studio budget is $150 million) reinvention of the Mummy franchise, The Tomb of the Dragon Emperor, shot in China with Brendan Fraser, Jet Li, Michelle Yeoh and an army of Terra Cotta warriors, opens in August. A test screening this week yielded a positive AICN posting.

What these movies have in common--and this will be an interesting test of what the box office will bear--is that "they all know exactly what they are," says Universal co-chairman Marc Shmuger, "and who they're for."

Kung Fu Panda will hit solidly with families. (It's pretty damned good.) Panda scored great reviews Friday, with an 85% fresh Rotten Tomatoes score, while Adam Sandler's You Don't Mess with the Zohan nabbed a piddly 37 % rotten. It should reach a few of the poor neglected males out there.

Sex and the City should hold well based on good word-of-mouth and may even pull in a few men. (Is it a one-shot anomaly? Or can Hollywood continue to harness the femmes?) Others have weighed in: The Women's Media Center, The Philly Inquirer, Newsweek, EW Popwatch and Cinematical. [Hat Tip: Women and Hollywood.]

Here are Variety's Zohan and Panda reviews, and our weekend boxoffice report.

Fandango's ticket sales (as of 6/6/08 10:00 a.m. PT) are:

Movie Fandango User Rating % Fandango Sales

Sex and the City “Must Go” 52%

Kung Fu Panda “Go” 23%

Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull “Go” 8%

You Don’t Mess with the Zohan “Go” 8%

The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian “Go” 2%

According to Us and People Magazine, Entertainment Tonight jumped the gun on reporting that Angelina Jolie has given birth to twins in the south of France, where she recently promoted two upcoming films, Kung Fu Panda and Clint Eastwood's Changeling.

This morning, I was scanning pregnancy photos and reading about the names Jolie had given her children. My first reaction was that given that she's carrying twins and was working the red carpet ropes like a pro just last week, it was early to be giving birth. What gives? In the rush to be first, are people just making this shit up?

George Clooney and his father Nick have come to rely on civil rights attorney David Pressman for advice and support on his various political activities, writes the LAT's Tina Daunt:

Then the elder Clooney met one of Pressman's relatives at a party and learned of the extensive connections the young lawyer had made in the region through his work as a special assistant to then-Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright and, later, as a Sudan expert for the United Nations. The elder Clooney called Pressman the next day. Both Clooneys quickly came to view Pressman as a member of the family. "I call him 'Cuz,' " Clooney said. "My dad seems to think we're related. I'm not sure how he came up with that."

The idea makes Pressman chuckle. "He's an Irishman, and I'm a Jew. Go figure."

Over lunch recently at a fashionable bistro near his Chelsea law office, Pressman recalls that a female friend reacted in horror when he told her that he was taking George Clooney into Darfur. "She said, 'You realize if anything happens to him, you will be committing the greatest crime against womankind,' " Pressman said.

Since the first trip in 2006, Pressman and Clooney have gone on a number of missions to Europe, Asia, the Middle East and Africa to lobby for peace in Darfur.

[Photo courtesy of the LA Times]

Radar reports that Brad Pitt has let go his long-time PR rep Cindy Guagenti. He's going to take it alone, like his partner Angelina Jolie. I've long thought that Pitt's PR was well-handled; we'll see where it goes from here. Remember what happened when Tom Cruise and Pat Kingsley parted ways?

Here's Pitt's latest announcement.

This Huffington Post report about the various tabloid and celeb mag reports this weekend about the possible New Orleans wedding of Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie is fascinating. The New York Daily News, for example, reported Saturday that they were married, citing The Star website. But Sunday, Fox News relies on People Magazine's assertion that it's not true.