The reviews Kathryn Bigelow has nabbed for The Hurt Locker (91 on Metacritic) are noteworthy. That doesn't mean that the movie will score at the boxoffice for Summit, but it's off to the second-strongest start for an indie this year. The movie has a shot at one of ten slots in the wide open Oscar best picture race. Even the NYT's tough-minded Manohla Dargis, who has long shared with me a sense of dismay at the thin ranks of gifted women directors, was moved to step out of the reviewer's box to praise Bigelow here.

Aside from critics' raves, The Hurt Locker boasts other advantages in the Oscar race. Bigelow is respected in the industry for making movies that are irrelevant to her gender; this movie is as intellectually rigorous and stylishly crafted as any Michael Mann film. (If anything, it's more engaging and viscerally exciting than, say, Public Enemies.) Also, the film industry, well aware of the failure of every Iraq War film to date, has been waiting for the exception that would break through and reach audiences. With America on the verge of withdrawing from Iraq, the timing may be right for this one. Finally, Bigelow gets points not only for figuring out a way to approach the subject that works, but for a high degree of difficulty.

It's shaping up to be an unusually good year for women directors. New Zealand writer-director Jane Campion, the only woman to ever win the Cannes Palme d'Or, is one of three women to be nominated for the best director Oscar, along with Sofia Coppola and Lena Wertmuller. (She won best screenplay for The Piano.) Bright Star, her tragic period romance about John Keats and Fanny Brawne, played well at Cannes but didn't take home a prize. New indie distributor Bob Berney plans to promote Bright Star on the fall fest circuit before a September opening. The impeccably mounted costume drama is quite Academy friendly.

The third Oscar possibility is Mira Nair, whose hits The Namesake, Monsoon Wedding and Mississippi Masala have earned her an Oscar shot with her latest film, Amelia, a biopic about flier Amelia Earhart starring Oscar-winner Hilary Swank in the title role. It doesn't hurt that Fox Searchlight (Slumdog Millionaire, Juno) is shepherding this period adventure, which will also open in October after hitting the fest circuit.

Here's the Amelia trailer:

Here's my Toronto chat with Bigelow:

Who came out ahead and behind on their Cannes jaunt this year?

Disney

The studio won big by using Cannes as the European launch for Pixar’s Up. John Lasseter and Pete Docter had the time of their lives being treated seriously by the most prestigious festival in the world, which gave them some auteur cred they wouldn’t get any other way. At Disney’s after-party on the Carlton pier, Lasseter got misty-eyed. “It’s one of the greatest things to happen in our careers,” he said. The often stuffy festival stepped up to the times, passing out 3-D glasses to the opening night black-tie glitterati at the Palais.

Disney also took advantage of the global media to introduce the motion capture pic Christmas Carol, bringing director Bob Zemeckis and Jim Carrey to the Croisette for a snowy photo opportunity. (I remember meeting Carrey for the first time when he came to Cannes to promo The Mask.)

Miramax

On the other hand, it’s utterly depressing that Disney may be putting its specialty subsidiary Miramax on the block. Studio boss Robert Iger wants to stick to his family-movie brand/theme park mandate, and Miramax doesn’t fit with its other businesses. While the studio denies the unit is for sale, their asking price is said to be $1.2 billion; buyers are interested, especially in the Tiffany library built by the Weinsteins, but are waiting for the price to come down.

Miramax topper Daniel Battsek has done a solid if not spectacular job, including Oscar winners Tsotsi and No Country for Old Men. But many projects were too pricey to turn a profit in the tough specialty market. Battsek kept a low profile on the Croisette this year, with no buys announced. As Harvey and Bob Weinstein struggle in a sour economy to keep their company afloat, the irony is that if they had not only raised but made some money, they might have been able to afford to buy their company back.

Harvey and Bob Weinstein

15 years after Pulp Fiction, the brothers brought Quentin Tarantino to the Cannes main competition with the raucous World War II drama Inglourious Basterds. Loaded with expectations (always a dicey position) the movie played fine for the global press, especially with its top-notch European cast, but will face a tougher time at home in a challenging environment for specialty pictures. To Tarantino’s credit, he shot it in four languages, French, Italian, German and English. The movie breaks out French actors Denis Menochet (who stars in Ridley Scott’s Robin Hood) and Melanie Laurent as well as German actors Daniel Bruhl, Diane Kruger and language whiz Christoph Waltz (who won best actor). Here's Hollywood Wiretap.

Less interesting in some ways are the titular Basterds, led by a one-note Brad Pitt as a Nazi hunter, supported by Eli Roth and Til Schweiger. It feels like this part of the movie was given short shrift. Tarantino, who was in a rush to Cannes, now has some time to fine-tune his film. Irish actor Michael Fassbender (who also scored in Fish Tank) may get a new scene when Tarantino returns to the editing room. At two hours and 27 minutes, Tarantino has final cut.

The Weinsteins also debuted for buyers and press a featurette made by Rob Marshall of his musical Nine, which was adapted by the late Anthony Minghella from the Broadway musical inspired by Federico Fellini’s 8 ½. In the role of the womanizing director having a midlife crisis (played on-stage by Raul Julia and Antonio Banderas) is Daniel Day Lewis, who looks handsome and charismatic in the movie. (Yes, he sports an Italian accent. And sings. And dances.) Much of the story, like Marshall’s Oscar-winning Chicago, unfolds in the director’s mind as he muses over the women in his life: his mother (Sophia Loren), the village prostitute (Fergie), lover (Nicole Kidman), wife (Marion Cotillard), mistress (Penelope Cruz), interviewer (Kate Hudson) and costume designer (Judi Dench). The movie looks sumptuous, elaborate, visually dazzling. It also looks expensive, and was shot in London and Cinecitta (estimates range from $80 to 90 million). The risk for the Weinsteins: is there a market big enough to pay back the cost of a studio-scale all-stops-out musical? The movie opens during awards season, November 25.

There’s good advance word on John Hillcoat's adaptation of Cormac McCarthy’s The Road starring Viggo Mortensen and Charlize Theron, but it looks like a narrow niche up-market film. While the Weinsteins may get what they want: renewed cred from a series of well-reviewed movies that might make it into the Oscar race, these days, that can be as much a curse as a blessing, as Oscar campaigns can turn a profitable movie into a money loser.

Bob Berney, Bill Pohlad, Jane Campion

Ex-Picturehouse chief Bob Berney and his new partner Bill Pohlad made official their new distribution combine, which will enter the middle ground between art-house distributors Sony Pictures Classics, IFC and Magnolia and remaining studio subsidiaries Fox Searchlight, Miramax and Focus Features. Berney and Pohlad (who are waiting for their company name to clear) boldly acquired all U.S. rights to Jane Campion’s Bright Star sight unseen ahead of the fest (for about $2.5 million). They saw the film two weeks ahead of Cannes, where it played well, but won no prizes. While Berney plans to target young women (it will also score with Anglophiles, Jane Austen fans, and the Academy), the movie is an austere and tragic love story that lacks mainstream appeal. But the two stars, Ben Whishaw and Abbie Cornish, are potential breakouts. After a six-year-gap, Campion reestablishes herself as a major director. But she has never been a particularly commercial one.

Sony Pictures Classics and Pedro Almodovar

Steady as they go, Michael Barker and Tom Bernard came out of Cannes having landed the top two prize winners, Michael Haneke’s The White Ribbon and Jacques Audiard’s A Prophet. They came into the fest with Pedro Almodovar’s Broken Embraces, starring Penelope Cruz, which is not the best of the Spanish auteur’s films, but is more fun to watch than most flicks. It was not a factor with the jury, either. But it wasn’t hurt by being in the festival, which sorely needed the combined star power of the director and Cruz.

While American art-house audiences don’t pay much attention to Cannes prizes, they do push the films' countries of origin to submit them for the foreign language Oscar. Thus SPC now has two more potential Oscar submissions for next year, from Germany and France. The Envelope looks at how Cannes impacts the Oscar race.

Word from the Cannes jury is that the votes were often split along director vs. actor lines. (UPDATE: Actress-director Asia Argento said it was more male vs.female; well, except for her, the directors were male.) This makes sense, as actors, writers and directors think very differently. As the reportedly fractious group, led by French actress Isabelle Huppert, talked over the selections (in English) three times during the fest--they saw 20 films-- they eliminated certain films that didn't raise enough votes, like Bright Star and Broken Embraces. Inglourious Basterds and Antichrist were more admired by the actors than the directors, while Fish Tank and Thirst were directors' pictures--and split the jury prize. The votes on the top two films, The White Ribbon and A Prophet were very close. But no award was unanimous. The most contentious debate was over best director Brilliante Mendoza, for Kinatay, which critics despised. The jurors weren't allowed to talk to anyone, and during deliberations, they even gave up their cell phones.

Focus Features and Ang Lee

The decision to bring a filmmaker to the fest is a calculation that, in the case of Focus and Ang Lee’s Taking Woodstock, backfired. I enjoyed the movie thoroughly and with some marketing fixes it could play well in the United States. It is an utterly American movie, culturally sophisticated, sweet and tender, mood-shifting, and fun. Screenwriter James Schamus (and Focus topper) and Lee nail the period. “It was a time when people had t-shirts that didn’t have logos on them,” Lee says.

Schamus and Lee explore the cultural moment that Woodstock crystallized—the ways that old and new were clashing and changing. This behind-the-scenes drama focuses on a family dynamic: two uptight Jewish parents (Henry Goodman and Imelda Staunton) and their vibrant, closeted gay son (Demetri Martin) who, when shoved up against the counterculture, breaks out of their world. Comedy Central star Martin never dreamed of a movie career, but the real discovery is radiant theater actor Jonathan Groff as Michael Lang. Most of the time, Lee and Schamus found that lingo from the period didn’t play, and cut much of it out. But when Groff said words like “groovy” and “far out,” he did so with such conviction that they left them in.

Taking Woodstock is not the sort of movie that goes over well at Cannes. It isn’t even what you’d call a critics’ picture. Lee must have wanted to come to the festival that had always treated him well. He probably wishes now that he hadn’t.

UPDATE: Focus came out ahead with its other Cannes entry, Park Chan-Wook's jury-prize-co-winner Thirst, which is already a hit in South Korea and will likely be a strong genre contender when Focus releases it stateside later this year. Focus Features International continues to be one of the strongest foreign sales companies, because it boasts the A-list projects (like Almodovar's Broken Embraces and the latest pics from Sam Mendes, Roberto Begnini, Zhang Yimou, Sofia Coppola and Noah Baumbach) everyone still wants to buy. "We're flying on all cylinders," says Schamus. "We've got our fingers in so many little pies all over the world."

Alejandro Amenabar's Agora

This Egyptian period drama cost $50 million Euros--and needed Cannes support. It didn't get it. The reviews were mixed, although Rachel Weisz managed to survive. The buyers waited on the sidelines for the price to decline. Clearly, even name stars and a big budget do not guarantee an American sale. Producers can't count on North American money any more. The Wrap looks at the Cannes economy.

IFC: Lars von Trier and Ken Loach

IFC came into the fest having bought the three-part Red Riding Trilogy, and then picked up Lars von Trier’s Antichrist, which built up a swell of want-to-see from Cannes controversy. IFC will show the movie uncut in a few U.S. cinemas and then trim it—working with the director—to show it on VOD. Honestly? It’s a movie-as-therapy that helped to pull Danish director von Trier out of a bout of depression that threatened to keep him from making movies. He indulged himself completely; the movie is a well-made, manipulative mess. Willem Dafoe and Charlotte Gainsbourg give their all; she totally deserved the best actress prize. Any student of von Trier will want to see the movie. The distrib also picked up the feel-good movie of Cannes, Ken Loach's Waiting for Eric, starring soccer player Eric Cantona.

Terry Gilliam's The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus

The reviews were kind (here's Variety), suggesting that Gilliam returned to form with his latest film--despite losing Heath Ledger in mid-shoot, replaced by Johnn Depp, Jude Law and Colin Farrell. American buyers, who saw the film in L.A. and NY before the festival, or attended an early screening in the market, were playing a waiting game. Nobody is taking risks any more.

Oscilloscope

Adam Yauch's neophyte distrib Oscilloscope Labs bought North American rights to a Cannes film in the official selection, a doc, natch, Michel Gondry’s look at his own family, The Thorn in the Heart.

Francis Ford Coppola's Tetro

Finally, Francis Ford Coppola is rebuilding his career and used a little Cannes pixie dust to help him do it. No, he didn't pull Tetro into the competition. But he opened the Director's Fortnight and was welcomed there. The movie, which he wrote himself with an autobiographical flair, was deemed an improvement over his last, Youth Without Youth, and more accessible and personal than anything he has done in some time. You can sense a filmmaker testing his chops, feeling his way. The next one could be even better. Hopefully he'll stay away from Vincent Gallo. He's toxic.

My Cannes Ten Best Films:

1. Up (check out Rotten Tomatoes reviews)

2. Mr. Hulot's Holiday

3. Fish Tank

4. Drag Me to Hell

5. Bright Star

6. The White Ribbon

7. Taking Woodstock

8. Humpday

9. Samson and Delilah

10. Inglourious Basterds

Disappointments:

11. Broken Embraces

12. Antichrist

13. Tetro

14. I Love You Philip Morris

UPDATE: Here are the results of IndieWire's poll of 16 English-language film writers. And IFC rounds up the Cannes wrap-ups.

On a bright Saturday afternoon at the Santa Monica Beach, I mingled with the presenters, nominees, media and guests at the Independent Spirit Awards. On the way in, I photographed waiters with free booze and Michael Barker, co-president of Sony Pictures Classics, which won best actress (Frozen River's Melissa Leo), best foreign film (The Class) and best first feature and ensemble cast (Synecdoche, New York). On the blue carpet, I grabbed a shot of Mad Men star Jon Hamm; Dana Delany; At the Movies co-host Ben Mankiewicz; Top Chef host Padma Lakshmi; Film Independent's Dawn Hudson; and IFC's Matt Singer; and then spent a good hour hobnobbing outdoors, the highlight of the event.

UPDATE: Here's Mickey Rourke's acceptance speech:

Photo gallery on the jump:

The Indie Spirits award show on the Santa Monica beach, the day before the Big Show, is my favorite awards event. It's relaxed, convivial. Everyone hangs out outside for an hour or so before the lunchtime ceremony gets under way.

Slumdog Millionaire wasn't up for any awards (eligible for foreign, it wasn't nominated), so it was possible for The Wrestler to walk away with top honors for best film, best cinematography (Maryse Albert) and best male lead Mickey Rourke. Darren Aronofsky thanked his actors, including Rourke, who when accepting his prize took the opportunity to exhort the audience to give Eric Roberts, "The best actor I ever worked with," a second chance. Roberts looked stunned in the crowd. Rourke cried over his dog Loki who died six days ago, saying, "This is for you baby." The crowd under the white tent gave Rourke a rousing standing ovation.

As expected, Milk star James Franco won best supporting male, while Milk scribe Dustin Lance Black won best first screenplay. Charlie Kaufman had to suffer various presenters, from Aaron Eckhart to Cameron Diaz, mauling the pronunciation of Synecdoche, New York. "I guess it really is a bad title," he quipped as he accepted the first of two awards for the night, for best first feature and the Robert Altman award for best ensemble acting. Accepting the supporting actress award, Oscar nominee Penelope Cruz said, "Woody Allen is the symbol of independence in our industry. He does whatever he wants." Allen won best screenplay for Vicky Cristina Barcelona, but did not attend the event.

Sony Pictures Classics enjoyed wins for best actress, foreign film and two for Kaufman. Accepting his award for best foreign film The Class, Laurent Cantet thanked his producers for giving him "the freedom to make films the way I want to make them."

My favorite Indie Spirits host will forever be John Waters, who presented the best director award Saturday afternoon with Zooey Deschanel to The Visitor's Tom McCarthy. Host Steve Coogan did OK--introduced at the show's start via clip by Tropic Thunder co-star Ben Stiller. Indie films are "all about shared experience," Coogan said. "We have all shared the experience of not having seen most of the films." He told Man on Wire star Philippe Petit that "it would have made the film a little better for me if you'd fallen." Man on Wire eventually picked up the win for best documentary.

Coogan's best schtick was showing up onstage as Christian Bale as a foul-mouthed Batman berating an actor dressed up as Joaquin Phoenix in fake wig, beard and shades who whined, "I'm giving up acting." "You've given up shaving," Batman replied, "There's a difference." Last year's host, Rainn Wilson, impersonated Mickey Rourke as The Wrestler, which prompted Rourke as he accepted his award say: "That little blonde dude that did that thing, I'm going to beat your ass."

Of the song homages, Teri Hatcher's renditon of "Bitch is Gone" clearly did not go over with the folks at the Wendy and Lucy table, including a perplexed Michelle Williams.

Best female lead Melissa Leo thanked a theater in Albany, New York for holding Frozen River for "eight fucking weeks." Alec Baldwin, presenting best feature, said, "I want to get back into the movie business so bad. I got to get a dog, get in shape and drop F- bombs on live TV."

After the ceremony, the Indie Spirits gang repaired to Shutters down the beach for a very loud party hosted by IFC, which aired the awards show.

There isn't much suspense building for this year's Oscar show on February 22--final ballots are due Tuesday, February 17--as the various guilds dole out their prizes. Anthony Dod Mantel nabbed the Society of Cinematographers prize for Slumdog Millionaire, while animated feature Wall-E, live-action feature Slumdog Millionaire and documentary Man on Wire won editing awards at the ACE Eddies. Slumdog is favored to win the cinematography and editing Oscars, and Man on Wire should score for best doc.

I always enjoy the Art Directors Guild awards, a black-tie affair at the Beverly Hilton, partly because I get a kick out of the anachronistic Johnny Crawford orchestra; the bandleader sings and swings just like Fred Astaire, top hat and all. He even had to play off the stage loquacious life achievement award winner Paul Sylbert (Heaven Can Wait), who looked like he could have talked all night.

Mainly I enjoy the clip reels from the past, such as this year's The Magnificent 100, a short celebrating 100 Years of production design from 1898 to 2000, highlighting films from Man in the Moon, Intolerance and Metropolis to The Wizard of Oz, Lawrence of Arabia, and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. The ADG will release the 9-minute short in theaters.

Ron Howard paid tribute to Outstanding Contribution to Cinematic Imagery Award-winner George Lucas, whose Star Wars inspired the evening's glowing light saber decor--which was recycled for the later Eddies show. "Don't take the centerpieces," pleaded host Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad). Here are the ADG winners, led by contemporary winner Slumdog Millionaire, fantasy The Dark Knight and period The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.

Anyone wanting to learn more about the creation of this year's Oscar-nominated films should check out a cool panel on Saturday February 21 at 2:30 pm at Hollywood Boulevard's Egyptian Theatre, with production designers and set decorators from Changeling, Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, The Duchess, and Revolutionary Road.

The London broadcast of the BAFTA Awards on Sunday does not cue what will happen on Oscar night. Suddenly, everyone says, as they did after the Golden Globes, Mickey Rourke will win. The folks voting for the BAFTAs are from the UK film industry, they aren't the same as the 5800 Academy voters. Of course the ceremony does take place smack in the middle of Oscar voting. (Still, many Academy members have already filled out their ballots, due February 17.) But they aren't widely viewed. More people see reports of the winners than the actual show. So rather than being predictive, the BAFTAs may have some slight influence on momentum. Winners look like winners, and so on.

"Will there be a Slumdog backlash?" asked my pal Dan as Slumdog took home seven wins. Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie sat patiently, as did producers Frank Marshall and Kathleen Kennedy and director David Fincher, as The Curious Case of Benjamin Button picked up technical awards only (three)--as it likely will on Oscar night.

Slumdog will also be a big winner on February 22. But maybe not as big. My hunch is that more films will win more awards through the categories, including Benjamin Button and Dark Knight and Wall-E. The actor race is still tight between bad boys Sean Penn and Rourke (who will have to watch his potty mouth on live TV); Cruz has won more than Viola Davis has, at this point, and Winslet and Ledger seem good to go. Milk still plays into the soft spot of the politically-correct Academy; it's very American, it's about our history. If Milk doesn't win picture, Penn could get actor, and Dustin Lance Black may beat Wall-E for screenplay.

Winners list is on the jump.

Milk scripter Dustin Lance Black, 34, tearfully accepted the Writers Guild Award for best original screenplay for Milk Saturday night by calling up the ghost of slain San Francisco politician Harvey Milk, the man who inspired Black when he moved to the Bay Area from San Antonio, Texas as a closeted gay 13-year-old. "I want to thank God for making my dreams come true," said Black, who was raised a Mormon, "and for giving us Harvey Milk."

Here are all the WGA winners, including non-attendee Simon Beaufoy, who won for Slumdog Millionaire's adapted screenplay, and Ari Folman, for the animated documentary Waltz with Bashir, which is on track to win the best foreign film Oscar.

Black had earlier accepted the WGA's Paul Selvin Civil Rights award. "This is a spec script," he told the writers. "It wasn't the easiest subject matter to pursue; it's pretty gay. Why would I spend five years with this Harvey Milk guy? It's the longest relationship I've ever had. His message of hope allowed me to dream, and to heal."

Black exhorted the gay community to learn from Milk's message: "Be proud, represent yourself, reach out," he said. He criticized the anti-prop 8 organizers for not pursuing outreach and education, of not following Milk's model of grassroots activism. When he told Cleve Jones, the character played by Emile Hirsch in Gus Van Sant's Milk, that he was getting the Selvin award, Jones told him, "Civil rights? We don't have them, and we want them." Black quoted Milk, who said, "If they demand the real thing, I find, they can get it."

Now is the time to think big, said Black, who asked the federal government to follow the model of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and ensure equal rights to GLBT people. "It's bigger than 8," he said. "Harvey Milk and the movies inspire people to dream big. That's how change really happens."

As far as the Academy Award voting goes, while Beaufoy will likely repeat his win, Black is competing with a rival, Wall-E writer-director Andrew Stanton (animated films are not eligible for WGA awards). Ballots are due on February 17; the Oscarcast is on February 22.

How could Hugh Jackman host the Oscars and not be part of a musical number? And if Slumdog Millionaire's A.R. Rahman is nominated for two songs, we'll certainly get an exuberant Bollywood dance, even if Bruce Springsteen was shut out. The NYT ferrets out as much info as possible about the February 22 Oscarcast, which faces the challenge of fanboy boycotts over Dark Knight and low-boxoffice performances from its top nominees.

While Slumdog is humming along to a decent $67 million gross, and at $116.5 million The Curious Case of Benjamin Button looks like a winner (even if it may not win any Oscars or make its money back), the last of the Oscar pack to widen, Gus Van Sant's Milk and Stephen Daldry's The Reader, did not achieve pre-Oscar b.o. liftoff. The Reader broadened to 1,000 screens and has mustered about $12.6 million to date. Milk, on 882 screens, scored about 1.4.4 million for a total of $23.4 million. And Frost/Nixon actually declined 54% and has earned a mere $14.5 million so far.

Don't worry, this year's Oscar show producers Laurence Mark and Bill Condon aren't about to forgo the glamorous ritual of red carpet arrivals. But some stars avoid going to these affairs, not wanting to run the gauntlet--many of them hurry in late so that they can wave at the stands and pass all the press by, ostensibly to run to their seats. Well, this way, the logic goes, they don't have to do all the things they don't like--they just have to show up on the Oscarcast, as surprise bait for the fans who will presumably tune in worldwide.

UPDATE: On the other hand, everybody likes going to the annual celebratory Oscar lunch, where a hundred or so nominees mingle, take a group photo, and get a lecture from Academy president Sid Ganis on making a short acceptance speech. Peter Bart was there.

One of my fave pre-Oscar events comes up next weekend: The BAFTAs, or British Academy Awards. The Brits usually come up with a witty host with a plummy British accent, like Stephen Fry; they tend to get on with it with humor and well-wrought acceptance speeches. Sunday the 8th, 5 PM, BBC America, PST. Order in some cucumber sandwiches.

I took this photograph of Danny Boyle at the start of the whole long process: The Telluride Film Festival over Labor Day Weekend. The movie was the hit of the fest. Everyone knew it was a winner. Slumdog went on to score at the Golden Globes, the Producers Guild, Screen Actors Guild, best director at the LA Film Critics, and Saturday night, the Directors Guild. Multiple Oscars are in Slumdog's sights.

Who would have thought that this movie developed by the originators of Who Wants to be A Millionaire, Celador, and funded by Film Four, would end up getting this far? By the way, Warners isn't crying in its beer about losing bragging rights to this Oscar contender. First, the studio did acquire Slumdog through Warner Independent, but shuttered the label before Slumdog's scheduled Telluride launch. Warners tried to figure out a way for outgoing Picturehouse exec Bob Berney to distribute it, but it was financially impossible to hang onto his staff for the release. And WIP's Polly Cohen persuaded her bosses to do what was best for the filmmaker, and let him take the film to his frequent home, Fox Searchlight.

"I should start by curiously thanking Warner Bros. for actually having the grace to do the right thing, when I think it would have been a lot easier to do the wrong thing, and pass the film on to Fox Searchlight, who are an extraordinary bunch of people," said Boyle, according to the A.P.

It's still a close race for picture with Slumdog vying with Milk and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. But most of the time the DGA winner is the Oscar winner. So best director is Boyle's to lose.

The New Yorker critic David Denby and the New York Times' A.O. "Tony" Scott don't necessarily know how to call the Oscar race--leave that to professional Oscar watchers, please---but they do know how to talk about movies. I always love to hear them gab with Charlie Rose.

Denby also has other things on his mind, like the deterioration of the quality of our cultural discourse as "civilized" newspaper and magazine journalists go the way of the dinosaur. He talks about his new book Snark with the LAT. Of course he's right to be concerned about the loss of long-form journalism and many of these issues but the notion that print carries more "authority" than online isn't going to hold much longer.

First, the younger generation doesn't grant print more authority, because they don't read newspapers or magazines--not one person in my new film criticism class at USC reads Entertainment Weekly, for example. Online, the NYT and Washington Post and Variety may carry more authority than less trusted brands. And with Perez Hilton, what you see is what you get. In the online world order, each individual searches for as much "authority" as they wish for. 

While reports of the inevitable Slumdog Millionaire backlash may be overstated--the hugely popular movie is still charging forward to some major Oscar wins on February 22--here's a new Oscar slant: Slumdog and its main rival, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, split the vote and Milk takes the best picture win.

Possible? Milk was ahead in the Oscar race back in November before Slumdog took off. The biopic about assassinated San Francisco gay activist Harvey Milk boasts the earmarks of a powerful Academy contender: the politically correct, timely, emotional true story grabbed great reviews, New York Film Critics wins for picture and Sean Penn, LA Film Critics win for Penn, SAG win for Penn over Globe-winner Mickey Rourke, and eight Oscar nominations on January 22.

Lately, Milk is recovering momentum. And this Friday, a new ad campaign kicks in as the movie finally--after seven weeks inching along in no more than 300 locations to a $22 million gross--goes wide on 882 screens.

"The hope from the beginning," says producer Bruce Cohen, who with producing partner Dan Jinks produced the surprise 1999 best picture Oscar winner American Beauty, "was to start with the core demo and from there build out, eventually getting people who have never heard of Harvey Milk, and might not think that a gay subject was their cup of tea."

Having learned some lessons on the 2005 release of Oscar contender Brokeback Mountain, which was considered the front runner for the Best Picture Oscar but lost to Crash, Focus Features has taken the slow-and-steady-wins-the-race approach for Milk, a movie looking for Oscar love.

The distrib waited to break Milk wide until after the Oscar nominations. Because they were bumped by the presidential inauguration from Tuesday to Thursday this year, that left no time to plaster ads with Oscar noms. So Focus delayed the movie one week to lay that info on the consumer. Now Milk goes out backed by a substantial ad campaign--during the prime of Oscar season. Final ballots were mailed to 5800 Academy voters on Wednesday, and are due back February 17.

"It takes time," adds Jinks, "to reach less sophisticated audiences. Eight Oscar nominations helps enormously. Milk resonates in an emotional way that tops the other films out there."

Defamer's Stu Van Airsdale argues that given the current odds and despite its awesome Oscar nominations lead (13) and Paramount ad support, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button could whiff on Oscar night. The January 31 DGA awards will tell the tale: if Danny Boyle wins, David Fincher will likely lose the directing Oscar. My sense is that the DGA and Oscar voters could go either way. The Academy respects Fincher: it could be a career prize.

The inexorable Slumdog Millionaire march to the Oscars continues with a best ensemble prize at Sunday night's SAG awards.

Lessons learned: Sean Penn reclaims momentum from Mickey Rourke's Golden Globe award. Winslet couldn't score twice again, so she settled for supporting actress for The Reader--and kept herself under more control this time. Respected older actress Meryl Streep grabbed a statuette instead, but I suspect it will be Winslet who will take the stage on Oscar night Feb.22 not only for The Reader, but for Revolutionary Road. (She has never won.) Heath Ledger will probably win the supporting actor Oscar. And with no Winslet to compete with, the supporting actress race is close between Penelope Cruz and Viola Davis."Somebody give her a movie!" cried Streep.

UPDATE: There was a hum of tension in the room when SAG leader Alan Rosenberg took the stage; subtle references were made during the ceremony: Sally Field cited the role of actors during tough times, while Tiny Fey joked that her daughter would later watch 30 Rock on the Internet and say,"What do you mean, you don't get residuals for this?" Here's the LAT on the ongoing internal struggles at SAG, whose members continue to work under the terms of an expired contract with the studios. Cynthia Littleton reports from the red carpet and backstage at Sunday's SAG event.

I knew we'd have a lively screenwriters panel at the Santa Barbara Film Festival this year because we had two actor-writers--Tom McCarthy (who also directed The Visitor) and Robert Knott (Appaloosa) as well as writer-director Andrew Stanton (Wall-E, nominated for 6 Oscars, including original screenplay), who is one of the most entertaining guys around, and young Dustin Lance Black (nommed for Milk).

Cal Arts grad Stanton has spent 18 years at Pixar, where he has written some of the best-reviewed movies of all time, including Wall-E, the Oscar-winning Finding Nemo (which he also directed) and Toy Story 1 and II, which he rewrote from scratch in three months, which he was only able to do because he knew the characters so well. Years ago when Stanton started writing Wall-E, he probably didn't have the chops to pull it off, he says now. The film carried the title Trash Planet for years, and even Steve Jobs wanted to keep it, but Stanton held his ground, because he knew "not a single girl would go," he said. ("What does Steve Jobs know about marketing?" quipped McCarthy.) Stanton originally wrote the doughy fat humans in Wall-E as gelatinous green creatures but soon realized the yuck factor was too great, so he made them into humans whose bones had gone soft (per real NASA research). When Hello, Dolly went into the movie, they had to use those images, so the Fred Willard video was live action too.

Why does Pixar have such a track record of excellence? Stanton chalks it up to the process they have of presenting everyone's work every so often and tearing it to shreds. Stanton thinks animation is starting to pull out of the ghetto and will make it to a best picture Oscar one day; progress is being made. Meanwhile he's writing his first adaptation, of Edgar Rice Burrough's John Carter of Mars, a favorite novel since childhood, and his first live-action movie, for Disney, not Pixar. Casting begins soon.

McCarthy spent a few months at Pixar working on Up, and testified that the experience was "brutal." The actor played the ambitious young newspaper reporter in The Wire, among many other roles (including a 30-second cameo date with Tina Fey in Baby Mama) and wrote and directed the BAFTA and Indie Spirit-award-winning The Station Agent. The Visitor is up for a Spirit for writing as well. And McCarthy is over the moon that Robert Jenkins nabbed an Oscar nom. He wrote the script for him, as a young Gene Hackman wasn't available. And he didn't worry that the character was passive and low-key. He thinks no one else could have played him so well, with such "emotional authenticity." Here's my April interview with McCarthy. These days he is acting up a storm while working on another script.

Oklahoma-born Robert Knott has acted in a ton of TV series and westerns (including The Hi-Lo Country), and worked with his old theater pal Ed Harris on Pollock as well as Appaloosa. It's a detailed, delicious character study about two gunslingers for hire (Harris and Viggo Mortensen) and a woman (Rene Zellweger) who comes into town and changes their buddy chemistry. Knott says when he's writing he gets on a boat and doesn't know where it's going to go, he just follows the characters. He started writing because the scripts he read were so bad. If he didn't get the part he'd throw the script in the trash. And if he did--well he knew he could do better. Knott hopes to make, with Harris, movies of two more Robert Parker novels.

Dustin Lance Black earned an Oscar nom for Milk, which scored 8 noms. Raised a Mormon in San Antonio, Texas, Black is also a writer-producer on HBO's Big Love, which is starting its third season. He came to UCLA, and was heavily influenced by the late San Francisco gay activist Harvey Milk, who was profiled in the Rob Epstein doc The Life and Times of Harvey Milk. Black did a lot of research, getting to know the real people close to Milk. And he used politics as the story's spine, which initally worried Van Sant. Black felt he needed a narrower focus, or the whole biopic would get unwieldy. He says there are still many gay kids like he used to be, as well as the real-life suicidal teen portrayed in the movie, who feel alienated, not accepted and lost in their lives. The filmmakers did want to bring the movie out before the Prop 8 vote but simply couldn't get it finished in time. Black is writing another film for Gus Van Sant, an adaptation of Tom Wolfe's Electric Kool-Aid Acid Test, for which he's been doing a lot of research (!).

Here's coverage from Variety, AICN's Quint, In Contention,and Jeff Wells, who shot some video:

[Photo of writers from left-- Tom McCarthy, Andrew Stanton, Robert Knott, Dustin Lance Black-- by me; panel photo of McCarthy, left, and Stanton, foreground, by Norman Christophersen.]

The Oscar nominations are in and The Dark Knight did not make it to best picture. The Reader landed the slot instead, also scoring noms for Stephen Daldry for best director (over The Dark Knight's Chris Nolan), David Hare for adapted screenplay and Kate Winslet (instead of Revolutionary Road). The Dark Knight was in the running though, with eight noms, including a posthumous nom for Heath Ledger, who is the frontrunner for best supporting actor.

Harvey Weinstein is a happy man.

A late-entry in the Oscar race, The Reader was barely finished in time. But Weinstein knew he had a winner and several Oscar-watchers were telling me Golden Globes weekend that their Academy pals weren't saying they voted for The Dark Knight. They were hearing they liked The Reader, which finally landed five noms. (Penelope Cruz also landed a nom for supporting actress for TWC's Vicky Cristina Barcelona, but Woody Allen was shut out for original screenplay.)

Media prognosticators who reach a consensus on these things aren't always right--check out The Gurus 'O Gold. Everybody said The Dark Knight--including me--because it was hard to figure anything else for that slot. The Reader was one of several possibilities, including two other films produced by Scott Rudin, Doubt (five noms) and Revolutionary Road (three). Rudin took his name off The Reader when he kept wrangling with Weinstein.

The other news was actors' actors Melissa Leo and Richard Jenkins landing nods. Many Academy voters loved Sony Pictures Classics' Sundance pick-up Frozen River, which also landed an unexpected nom for Courtney Hunt for original screenplay. The nom for Jenkins' quiet performance in The Visitor meant that Clint Eastwood did not get a slot for Gran Torino, nor did Leonardo DiCaprio for Revolutionary Road, which landed three noms, for costume design, art direction and supporting actor Michael Shannon. Eastwood had to console himself with Changeling's three noms (Jolie, cinematography and art direction). Gran Torino was shut out.

Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie are also happy today, as both won noms. Jolie won an Oscar in 2000 for Girl Interrupted, while Pitt hadn't been nominated since his supporting role in Twelve Monkeys in 1996.

The best actress category was open for some surprises. Button's Cate Blanchett did not make it, nor did critics' faves Sally Hawkins and Kristin Scott Thomas, who were overlooked mainly because not enough people saw art-house entries Happy-Go-Lucky and I've Loved You So Long. Oscar perennial Mike Leigh did land his sixth Oscar nom, for his Happy-Go-Lucky original screenplay. He has never won.

Animated film Wall-E, from Pixar, didn't make it to best picture but it did earn six noms, including original screenplay, tying with Beauty and the Beast (which had four music noms). Pixar's Ratatouille earned five last year and won best animated feature, as Wall-E is likely to do.

Here's the list of noms, led by David Fincher's The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, with 13. Someone asked me to make my Oscar pics before this morning, and I backed out. You have to get a feel for the whole list. Heading toward the Academy Awards night on February 22, Benjamin Button will be slugging it out with Slumdog Millionaire. But Milk also did very well, which is why I'm still picking Sean Penn to beat Mickey Rourke, partly because The Wrestler landed only two acting noms. Milk is going to have to win something.

UPDATE: Tom O'Neil explains why Bruce Springsteen didn't make the cut.

The noms list is on the jump:

Despite a perceived slight from the British Academy Award (BAFTA) nominations, which after all are from the Brits, who can be a snobby club, The Dark Knight is still looking strong for multiple Oscar noms, including best picture. Danny Boyle's Slumdog Millionaire and David Fincher's The Curious Case of Benjamin Button boasted the most noms with 11 apiece. Here's the list.

Shortlisted for the documentary Oscar, Trouble the Water was one of last year's Sundance breakouts. It was a good year all around for its scrappy real-life heroine, Kim Rivers, who surprised herself and many people around her as she videotaped Hurricane Katrina and helped to save lives. At the fest, she gave birth to her first child, and then watched the film go on to many kudos, including Time Magazine’s Top Ten Performances of 2008.

Rivers debuted her music in Trouble the Water, and is releasing an album in April to coincide with its HBO release.

Here's the movie's trailer:

RottenTomatoes has posted winners of its Golden Tomato Awards for 2008 for the best and worst-reviewed movies on the critics aggregation site.

No surprise on the winner of the best-reviewed wide release-- Wall-E: 96%. More than any other company, Pixar has won this honor five times.

Man on Wire grabbed best-reviewed limited release: 100%. Only one other film has earned this score: Pixar's Toy Story 2.

Worst-reviewed film is One Missed Call at 0%, the lowest-ever Tomatoes score.

At this stage, Man on Wire is the film to beat for the best feature documentary Oscar. And Wall-E will likely score best animated feature, plus some nominations for writing, sound editing, sound and score, the same ones earned by last year's animated winner, Ratatouille. Will Andrew Stanton add director to the list? That is the burning question.

The Golden Globes are behind us. Still to come before the Oscars: the BAFTAs and Guild awards like SAG, Writers and Directors, and the Indie Spirits. Here, IFC's Matt Singer, Cinematical's James Rocchi and I parse the Indie Spirit noms.

Stephen Schaefer complains about ongoing abuse of the supporting actor award categories.

Philadelphia critic Carrie Rickey recalls the theater where Golden Globe C.B. DeMille award-winner Steven Spielberg saw his first C.B. DeMille movie.

Everyone is on Watchmen alert. Word from those in the know: "Discussions are continuing, but we aren't expecting any news today."

The American Cinema Editors nominations mirror the PGA and DGA noms; I maintain that the five dramas will be named the best picture Oscar nominees on January 22. The Editors will announce winners at their awards show on February 15.

BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (DRAMATIC):
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Angus Wall & Kirk Baxter
The Dark Knight
Lee Smith, A.C.E.
Frost/Nixon
Mike Hill, A.C.E. & Dan Hanley, A.C.E.
Mil
Elliot Graham
Slumdog Millionaire
Chris Dickens
BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (COMEDY OR MUSICAL):
In Bruges
Jon Gregory, A.C.E.
Mama Mia
Leslie Walker
Tropic Thunder
Greg Hayden
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Alisa Lepselter
WALL-E
Stephen Schaffer
BEST EDITED DOCUMENTARY:
Bush’s War
Steve Audette
Chicago 10
Stuart Levy, A.C.E.
Man on Wire
Jinx Godfrey

Fox Searchlight's party at Craft was the place to watch the Golden Globes Sunday night if you weren't at the Beverly Hilton awards dinner. I was sitting with the folks who marketed the hell out of Slumdog Millionaire, the big winner of the night, four for four, including best score, director, screenplay and drama, as well as the night's other big winner, The Wrestler, which won two out of three awards, including best actor Mickey Rourke and best song Bruce Springsteen. Here's the full list of winners.

Cheers kept going up all around; the mood was giddy. And it was a great night for Bollywood, with Bollywood composer A.R. Rahman a Slumdog winner, and Globes presenter Shah Ruk Kahn introducing Slumdog. The Slumdog team is heading for India next to open the movie there. They will be welcomed as champions.

Slumdog and The Wrestler pick up a box office boost from their wins. So do The Reader and Revolutionary Road, which both won awards for emotional first-time Globes winner Kate Winslet, for supporting actress and best actress, respectively. She grabs momentum going forward in the Oscar race. And The Weinstein Co., which often does well with the Globes, was basking in its wins for The Reader and Vicky Cristina Barcelona, which won best comedy.

Final Oscar ballots are being walked into the Academy Monday; the nominations will be announced on January 22. At this point, Slumdog and Winslet look like faves in their categories.

Israeli animated doc Waltz with Bashir, the foreign film winner, will also gain a b.o. and Oscar boost. Writer-director Ari Forman said after the show that when he made the film people wondered if it would be timely. He told them it would. Unfortunately, he was right. He said he had wanted to keep his acceptance speech message subtle: he cited eight production babies who were born during the shooting of the film: "I hope one day they grow up and we watch the film together and see the war in the film look like ancient videogame that has nothing to do with life whatsoever."

In his Globes speech, C.B. DeMille award-winner Steven Spielberg sounded a note of concern in these economically trying times: he asked the studios not to just try to make movies for more people, he said, but for "an audience of individuals." He warned them not to lose "that very thing that none of us can live without: inspiration."

Style notes: Sting is too handsome to waste his looks on a beard. Ralph Fiennes should grow his hair. John Adams Globe-winner Laura Linney was an elegant standout among a field of glamorous actresses. And strangely, Jessica Lange looked younger than her co-presenter and co-star in the upcoming Grey Gardens, Drew Barrymore.

Golden Globes weekend brings parties and more parties, both Saturday and Sunday. Predicting the Globes is a frustrating exercise; it's only 80 people. Who knows what they're thinking? The good money appears to be on Slumdog Millionaire for drama. I'll go with The Curious Life of Benjamin Button.

With Oscar ballots due Monday, debates rage over the fifth best picture slot. Some Oscar watchers say not enough Academy members are talking about The Dark Knight, no matter how many recent Guild noms it got. I don't see what else it could be. Revolutionary Road probably should have widened earlier, and Gran Torino kicked ass at the boxoffice one weekend too late. (Eastwood makes his own release decisions.) In the Oscar best actor race, though, the popular 78-year-old star could steal a slot from Leonardo DiCaprio, Richard Jenkins or Brad Pitt.

Brangelina turned up at Saturday night's hottest jam-packed party at the Chateau Marmont, where Paramount celebrated Button's success. When I told Star Trek star Chris Pine that I grew up on the original TV series starring William Shatner as Captain Kirk, he graciously said it was okay for me to be skeptical. (He plays the young Kirk in J.J. Abrams' revamp.) Paramount's John Lesher told us that his seven-year-old loved the movie. The studio's aiming at him and me and everyone in between. Poised to be Hollywood's next breakout star, Pine has nothing on his plate--yet.

The other Oscar category that could see some surprises is best actress: critics' faves Kristin Scott Thomas (I've Loved You So Long), Sally Hawkins (Happy-Go-Lucky) and Melissa Leo (Frozen River) are all vying for a slot. Who gets bumped in that case, assuming Meryl Streep and Kate Winslet are locks? Rachel Getting Married star Anne Hathaway? Angelina Jolie, who did not land a nom for A Mighty Heart? At least Eastwood's Changeling was seen by Academy members.

At Saturday's annual British Academy (BAFTA) tea party at the Beverly Hills Hotel, a civilized afternoon affair, the diminutive Hawkins (pictured) charmed the room, as did Scott Thomas. She has finished up her run on Broadway in The Seagull, but is far from relieved. "I miss it," she said. She looks forward to returning to her home in France, where she plans to do more acting, despite all the English-language work coming in. She's pleased to be getting fewer offers to play prim uptight Brits (like the one in Stephen Elliot's excellent, upcoming Easy Virtue). She's up next in Confessions of A Shopaholic and just signed to play John Lennon's Aunt Mimi in Nowhere Boy.

At BAFTA, other Globes and Oscar contenders, from Danny Boyle to Clint Eastwood, wandered in for a bit and moved on. Revolutionary Road's Leonardo DiCaprio and The Wrestler's Darren Aronofsky checked out the silent auction; The Reader's Stephen Daldry (pictured here with Valkyrie star Tom Wilkinson) played with his two little girls.

Slumdog Millionaire's Dev Patel arrived straight from the airport from visiting relatives in rural India and begged for a glass of water. When Fox Searchlight called him about a Calvin Klein tux for the Golden Globes, he told them: "Just get me a shower!" He sports a London accent very different from the movie, and recently signed with American agency UTA over the phone. He was relieved when he met the agents and liked them. The difference between American and British agents? "The Americans talk a lot more," he said. His Brit TV series Skins is currently airing on BBC America.

Moving on from Doubt, writer-director John Patrick Shanley has two original movie scripts in mind, plus one graphic novel. He admitted to admiring Frost/Nixon, and thought Valkyrie could have used more Hitler. He's read voluminous transcripts of Hitler talking; he never stopped, apparently. Bernd Eichinger, the producer of Downfall, featuring Bruno Ganz as a more outgoing Hitler (a clip from the film keeps getting re-subtitled to comic effect), has high hopes for his latest, Germany's foreign submission Der Baader Meinhoff Komplex.

At the intimate Disney/Miramax soiree in the old Warren Beatty penthouse and rooftop at the Beverly Wilshire (where there was actually food) I learned that Golden Globes broadcaster NBC (8 – 11 p.m. EST Sunday) didn't know that presenter Shah Rukh Khan is Bollywood's biggest film star. Don't they realize that Newsweek chose him as their only movie star on their list of the 50 most powerful people in the world?

With Globes and Oscar hopes riding high for Happy-Go-Lucky and Doubt, and Sundance looming, Miramax host Daniel Battsek admitted, "I'm always anxious!"

The annual AFI awards lunch at the Four Seasons is low-key. Each of the companies behind one of the year's ten top movies or TV shows commandeers a table. Many of the major players, filmmakers and stars show up, because they don't have to do much more than walk a short press line and then hobnob and enjoy lunch with all their pals and rivals.

Emotions are running high because the Globes are Sunday night and the last remaining Oscar ballots are being filled out and each team wants their horse to win. Anxiety is palpable.

Fox Searchlight, the folks behind Slumdog Millionaire, are hoping that passionate supporters will put their little Bollywood hybrid first on the ballot--because they get more points that way.

The Wrestler's Mickey Rourke and Darren Aronofsky both showed up, sporting new facial hair. Smooth-faced Marisa Tomei wore a form-fitting knit gray dress.

Clint Eastwood and Chris Nolan presided over the Warners table. The Dark Knight is picking up steam, everybody agreed--one prognosticator I trust says it could win. Others are betting on Slumdog or Paramount's Curious Case of Benjamin Button. As we watched clips,it suddenly hit me that Brad Pitt--who delivers a performance unlike any he has ever given--might grab a nom after all. It's because he surprises people. He's like the pretty ingenue who turns out to be better than anyone suspected--even though he's still using his iconic looks.

Big-spender Universal is confident about getting a number of noms for Frost/Nixon, including Frank Langella, Peter Morgan and Ron Howard, who gave a benediction exhorting his colleagues to embrace their inner Obama and work together to entertain audiences who are facing troubling times, he said: “go into the next year supporting each other.”

Finding common ground were studio execs Kevin McCormick (WB) and Brad Weston (Par), who commiserated about unfounded exit rumors.

At the Frozen River table, Melissa Leo admitted that she's gotten many offers since this movie came out, and hopes to parlay a Sundance short into a feature. She was glowing.

[Posted by David S. Cohen]

The gang at the NYT's take on the awards season and the red carpet is pretty downbeat. Laura Holson reports that updated old-Hollywood hairstyles will replace gaudy baubles on the red carpet, and that understated is in. Meanwhile Brooks Barnes says the glitter and self-congratulation of Award Season is "treacherous ground" and suggests Hollywood is in danger of looking like a bunch of Marie-Antoinettes. He notes that Hollywood has turned down the glamour before, after 9/11, and suggests it should do so again.

Brother Barnes might want to catch up on his Thorstein Veblen and the idea of conspicuous consumption. To be fair, I think everyone's still figuring this out, as Tim Gray suggests, but there's no evidence that the public will resent women for dressing up for the red carpet -- or if there is, Barnes isn't citing any. He does cite the more-opulent-than-ever menu at the Golden Globes dinner, but I don't recall the menu ever being a feature of the broadcast. I bet 99% of the viewers and the public have no idea what people eat at the Globes, even after this article.

As for the 9/11 analogy, I think that's flat wrong. What's happening now isn't a national tragedy, as 9/11 was (even if it feels that way to those of us in the newspaper business). It's an incipient depression. The Oscars were nurtured in a depression, remember, and in those days Hollywood stars getting dressed up seemed like a good thing. That, apparently, is the thinking of NBC, which is behind the swankier GG presentation this year.

Oddly, while there is some evidence for Barnes' argument, he's missing it. There are only three on-site after-parties at the Globes this year; the once-coveted Miramax/Weinstein party has vanished. There are several official parties elsewhere around town, where presumably attendees won't be required to be in black tie and evening gowns. But does that have anything to do with public perception? Or is it because of a the economic downturn within the industry itself? I think it's the latter.

And while he scolds that "The swag is back too, with six 'gifting suites' for presenters and nominees operating in conjunction with the awards," I believe our own Mia McNiece, who writes that swag is hardly "back," gifting suites be damned.

A lot of people think that Slumdog Millionaire, which won five Critics' Choice awards Thursday night, is on its way to the best picture Oscar. Critics awards push Academy Award voters to look at screeners, and help build a sense of momentum for frequent winners. (Like Milk's Sean Penn.) But that's about it. They're not predictive. The Guilds are more indicative of the way Academy voters are leaning, because many Oscar voters are in the guilds, too.

The Writers Guild of America nominees often line up with the Academy. They're a sign of where the prevailing winds are blowing.

And they show that folks like me predicting Oscar nominations at the LATimes Buzzmeter and Gurus 'O Gold can make mistakes.

I called surprise nominee Burn After Reading (7th at Gurus 'O Gold for original screenplay), but the Gurus and Buzzmeter agreed that Rachel Getting Married would land a nod (I did not). The Gurus (including me) thought that Happy-Go-Lucky and Wall-E would get in there too. They didn't. And the LAT missed on Changeling. This year, it seems, Clint Eastwood may settle for going for an actor prize for Gran Torino.

On adapted screenplay, I got the Nolans for The Dark Knight (while the Buzzmeter group went for Revolutionary Road) but I picked David Hare's The Reader instead of Doubt.

What does this tell us? The top five--The Dark Knight, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon, Milk and Slumdog Millionaire-- continue strong. And Doubt is looking good, too--and doing well at the boxoffice. Revolutionary Road is not feeling the love. And I always wondered about Rachel Getting Married. But the Academy writers could yet come through for Wall-E and Happy-Go-Lucky. We'll see.

The nominees are:

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
"Burn After Reading," written by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, Focus Features
"Milk," written by Dustin Lance Black, Focus Features
"Vicky Cristina Barcelona," written by Woody Allen, The Weinstein Company
"The Visitor, "written by Tom McCarthy, Overture Films
"The Wrestler," written by Robert Siegel, Fox Searchlight Pictures

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," Screenplay by Eric Roth; Screen Story by Eric Roth and Robin Swicord; Based on the Short Story by F. Scott Fitzgerald, Paramount Pictures and Warner Bros. Pictures
"The Dark Knight," Screenplay by Jonathan Nolan and Christopher Nolan; Story by Christopher Nolan & David S. Goyer; Based on Characters Appearing in Comic Books Published by DC Comics; Batman Created by Bob Kane, Warner Bros. Pictures
"Doubt," Screenplay by John Patrick Shanley, Based on his Stage Play, Miramax Films
"Frost/Nixon, "Screenplay by Peter Morgan, Based on his Stage Play, Universal Pictures
"Slumdog Millionaire," Screenplay by Simon Beaufoy, Based on the Novel "Q and A" by Vikas Swarup, Fox Searchlight Pictures

DOCUMENTARY SCREENPLAY
"Boogie Man: The Lee Atwater Story, "written by Stefan Forbes and Noland Walker, InterPositive Media
"Chicago 10", written by Brett Morgen, Roadside Attractions
"Fuel", written by Johnny O'Hara, Greenlight Theatrical / Intention Media
"Gonzo: The Life and Work of Dr. Hunter S. Thompson", Screenplay by Alex Gibney, From the Words of Hunter S. Thompson, Magnolia Pictures
"Waltz with Bashir, "written by Ari Folman, Sony Pictures Classics

[Posted by David S. Cohen] Now we know the seven films that will compete for the visual effects Oscar: Australia, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, Hellboy II, Iron Man, Journey to the Center of the Earth, and The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor.

Why these seven and not, say, Hancock, Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, Cloverfield or The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian -- all of which made the Academy's long list of contenders?

Here's why:

The Academy's vfx branch is fascinated with the intersection of visual effects and acting. They like visual effects that have the emotional punch only an actor can bring. This is a major selling point for Benjamin Button, but also part of the pitch for Iron Man, where much of Iron Man in his armor was digitally animated and had to be a convincing add-on to Robert Downey Jr.'s breezy performance, and The Mummy, which had Jet Li as a digitally animated terra cotta warrior, who had to be convincing as, well, Jet Li. This is an ongoing trend, and I expect it to continue next year with Avatar (assuming Jim Cameron's 3-D/motion-capture epic opens in 2009).

Movies that push vfx into new formats get credit for being pioneers. Journey is the notable entry here. Making digital effects in 3-D is vastly more complicated than making them in 2-D, because many of the 2-D "cheats" that look passable in "mono" are obvious in "stereo." However The Dark Knight also gets credit for pushing digital visual effects into Imax. That meant working at 8K -- and for those of you who aren't digital wonks, that's a lot more resolution, and therefore a lot more detail, than normal 4K or 2K effects.

Beauty counts. Visual effects are becoming more like other categories in the sense that it's more and more about how beautiful the work is and how it contributes to the story, and less and less about the latest tech breakthrough. Benjamin Button has both beauty and breakthrough tech, but Hellboy II may have the most gorgeous and imaginative vfx images of the year.

Okay, so what about "Australia"? If you're shocked by the inclusion of this picture in the bakeoff, you're not alone. Not even Fox really thought it was a big vfx Oscar contender when the season started, and most of the effects seem to belong in what the Visual Effects Society would call "supporting effects." But vfx supervisor Jamie Price told me today that Baz Lurmann challenged them with his "Lean and Lucas" approach: Shoot dramatic locations like David Lean, then intercut them with scenes shot on a stage with bluescreen, like George Lucas. The visual effects had to make it all hang together so you couldn't tell the difference. What, you couldn't tell the difference? That's why it's in the bakeoff.

Oddly, at this stage of the Oscar race, while the five Best Picture candidates--Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Milk and Slumdog Millionaire--seem obvious, other races are harder to call.

While EW fearlessly forecasts the top five in the two actor races, these picks are far from clear.

While I agree that actresses Meryl Streep, Sally Hawkins and Kate Winslet are locks, an upset is possible in this category: Frozen River's Melissa Leo or I've Loved You so Long's Kristin Scott Thomas could steal slots from Changeling's Angelina Jolie or Rachel Getting Married's Anne Hathaway.

Among the men, while The Curious Life of Benjamin Button is a strong overall candidate, I'm not sure Brad Pitt is a lock--some find the digital aspects of his performance strange, even creepy. Who could get in there instead? While Revolutionary Road may seem to lack support, it is in fact just the sort of challenging actors' vehicle that the Academy tends to go for. Leonardo DiCaprio could be a surprise entry here. And The Visitor's Richard Jenkins, an actors' actor, is not beyond the realm of possibility.

Here's Gold Derby on the DGA, Vulture's Oscar Watch and Dave Kehr in the NYT on Oscar's obsession with Important Movies.

The Producers Guild vote is revealing. Its top five:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

The list will be the same for the Oscar on January 22, methinks. I went over the categories for each of the top contenders. These five films have more deep support from the Academy branches than any of their competitors, including Doubt, Revolutionary Road, The Reader, Gran Torino, The Wrestler and Wall-E.

Here's Jon Weisman's latest update on critics group voting:

Top battle: Sean Penn vs. Mickey Rourke; quietly building up kudos: Marisa Tomei

PICTURE
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
St. Louis Film Critics

“The Dark Knight”
Austin Film Critics

“Frost/Nixon”
Las Vegas Film Critics

“Happy-Go-Lucky”
Satellite Awards (comedy/musical)

“Milk”
New York Film Critics
San Francisco Film Critics Circle
Southeastern Film Critics

“Slumdog Millionaire”
Alliance of Women Film Journalists
Boston Society of Film Critics
Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics
Florida Film Critics Circle
National Board of Review
New York Film Critics Online
Phoenix Film Critics Society
San Diego Critics Society
Satellite Awards (drama)
Washington, D.C. Area Film Critics

“Wall-E”
Boston Society of Film Critics (tie)
Chicago Film Critics
Los Angeles Film Critics

“Waltz With Bashir”
National Society of Film Critics

“Wendy and Lucy”
Toronto Film Critics

Judging from the latest round of voting from the Gurus O' Gold, the top four Oscar sure shots are not at all surprising:

1. Slumdog
2. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
3. Milk
4. Frost/Nixon

And the consensus on the fifth slot is Dark Knight, with two actor-friendly dramas, Doubt and Revolutionary Road, nipping at its heels. Now's the time that the Academy voters are actually looking (or not looking) at their stacks of DVDs.

Which leads me to wonder why Revolutionary Road waited until the day after Christmas to open? It's not an overtly commercial movie, although many seem to regard it as a big-studio vehicle because of its two stars. (They helped the movie grab a high per-screen-average in limited release.) So it would have been a dicey, costly proposition to hold it in theaters a long time, risking that it would lose steam, as Frost/Nixon has done. But the Academy still likes Frost/Nixon--in this case, its lack of commerciality will be boosted by multiple Oscar nominations, so Universal just has to hang in there.

Usually you can get away with a late entry if you have names like Kate Winslet and Leonardo DiCaprio because Academy voters will be sure to watch the movie. Rev Road is just the sort of well-executed high-end literary drama the Academy usually goes for. That's why I'm missing that sense of growing momentum that it should have right now.

By waiting so long, the movie may have lost the opportunity to be explained and supported by critics and press. I feel much of the media stories were more about literary assessments of author Richard Yates than the movie itself. (Discovering Yates was my interest too.)

The movie scored a 70 on Metacritic, which is good, not great. (Benjamin Button got a 69, but it has epic scale and scope; all the tech branches will go for it.) Among Rev Road's champions are Rolling Stone's Peter Travers, who praises DiCaprio, and New York's David Edelstein, who admires Mendes' direction of actors:

Though I’ve never been sold on Mendes’s films (the waterlogged Road to Perdition, pulp plus metaphysics, is an eye-roller), the theater work of his I’ve seen has been uniformly wonderful. Onstage, he has a grasp of design as metaphor, and every dramatic beat is on the nose (without being too on the nose). Revolutionary Road plays to his strengths. The visual set pieces, like the sea of hats emerging from the New York train station, are self-conscious, but get Mendes in a room with quick-witted actors and the crosscurrents are dizzying.

I also like this line in Owen Gleiberman's EW review:

The best thing about Revolutionary Road, a cool-blooded and disquieting adaptation of Richard Yates' 1961 novel about a powerfully unhappy Connecticut couple, is that it doesn't end with that rote vision of bourgeois anomie. It only begins there.

Other Rev Road supporters include the LAT's Ken Turan, Newsweek's David Ansen, and the Village Voice's Scott Foundas, who damns it with faint praise:

Revolutionary Road isn't a great movie -- it lacks the full, soul-crushing force of the novel -- but what works in it works so well, and is so tricky to pull off, that you can't help but admire it.

The WSJ's Joe Morgenstern calls the movie "stifling, all right, and depressing in the bargain."

The New Yorker's David Denby echoes the opinion of his mag's literary editor Roger Angell, who refused to ever acquire a Richard Yates short story:

There's a sourness, a relentlessness about the movie which borders on misanthropy. In both the social and the personal scenes, the conversational tone veers between idiotic pleasantries and fathomless bile, with nothing in between.

A movie like Rev Road may need more enthusiastic support than this. Rev Road is shaping up as more admired than beloved. At the Academy screening this weekend--the year's last--not many voters showed up, although it did get applause. (Many folks are away and will watch it on DVD.) Among those I've talked to who have seen the film, some say it's a tough slog. The Golden Globes helped Winslet and DiCaprio, but the critics groups did not; SAG went for Winslet only; they did not nominate Revolutionary Road for ensemble cast.

Winslet could win--it's her year (thanks to the double-whammy of Road and The Reader) and her competition is weak. (The indie gals may be deemed lucky to be nominated and many do not consider Oscar-winners Cate Blanchett or Streep's performances to be their best.)

Clint Eastwood could steal DiCaprio's best actor slot. And Michael Shannon, despite not getting the SAG love, should get a supporting actor nom.

Will the writers go for Justin Haythe? Will the directors anoint Sam Mendes? Mendes was a new kid on the block with American Beauty. Now he's a mix of outsider/insider--he's a lauded, respected British theater director, but many people, like Edelstein, consider him to be great with actors, but more theatrical than cinematic. I thought he did a great job with this movie. But I'm willing to suffer more than most. The upcoming WGA and DGA noms will be instructive here.

Twentieth Century Fox badly needed a winner this Christmas season, and got one with Marley & Me, a shamelessly heart-tugging commercial dog movie. (Here's Variety's weekend boxoffice report.) But let's give credit where credit is due. While Fox co-chairmen Tom Rothman and Jim Gianapoulos will happily take credit for this win, it does not necessarily lift them out of the doghouse. The real winner is Fox 2000 chief Elizabeth Gabler, who year in, year out, consistently delivers strong modestly-scaled commercial features. She made director David Frankel's The Devil Wears Prada, too. 27 Dresses grossed $160 million worldwide. Alvin and the Chipmunks was a huge hit at $360.5 million worldwide. So was Oscar-winner Walk the Line. There were some clinkers over the years, but at this point Fox 2000 is making more money than the big studio.

The good news for MGM/UA: Valkyrie opened pretty well, $30 million over four days. It's off to a good start. MGM/UA turned around the bad press that was launched about a year ago with ill-advised photos of Tom Cruise in a Nazi uniform wearing an eye patch. There are two versions of how that photo got sent out: One says UA marketers sent out the photo and said, "Don't worry, they'll get used to it;" the other says UA didn't want to release the photo and Cruise insisted it would be fine. In any case, under new prexy Mary Parent MGM/UA has made some smart moves. They brought in marketing consultant Terry Press and hired her old DreamWorks partner-in-crime Mike Vollman away from Paramount. The studio pushed up Valkyrie's release to December, not only to qualify for the expiring Showtime Pay-TV deal, but to capitalize on the prime-time adult-moviegoing holiday period.

It helped that Valkyrie is a commercial thriller and earned decent reviews (62% on Rotten Tomatoes) for Bryan Singer's direction and Tom Cruise's lead performance. They weren't the kind of money reviews that would have positioned the movie for awards consideration, though. But MGM/UA smartly didn't go for that, saving themselves both money and grief. (I hear Cruise went along with this, while Singer was disappointed.) Will the movie make it's money back? With a negative cost from $90 to 110 million, plus a hefty P & A spend of some $70 million domestic alone, the picture will have to keep building strong WOM---and do very well overseas.

Here are interviews with the Valkyrie principals by the LAT's Rachel Abramowitz and the LA Weekly's Scott Foundas.

[Photo of Chris McQuarrie, Tom Cruise and Bryan Singer courtesy the Los Angeles Times]

The movie my family and I went to see on Christmas Day was chosen by many others over the holiday: Marley & Me, a cannily crafted family film starring a restrained Owen Wilson, a charming Jennifer Aniston and a series of delightful rambunctious Labrador retrievers as the titular dog, Marley. My family made fun of me for crying so hard.

Written by Don Roos (The Opposite of Sex) and Scott Frank (Get Shorty) and directed by David Frankel (The Devil Wears Prada), this movie delivers both a romance between a handsome couple plus their relationship with their dog. This well-calibrated studio tear-jerker doesn't go overboard on the sentimentality, hews close to the original material (the bestselling memoir by newspaper columnist John Grogan) and keeps the performances natural. Both stars are well-matched to their roles and each other; Wilson gives his most mature performance to date. (Here are diametrically opposed reviews by Todd McCarthy and Stephen Holden.)

Also doing well over the holiday, after Marley & Me, was The Curious Life of Benjamin Button, which also drew opposite reviews from Scott (a rave) and the LAT's Turan (a dismissive pan). Its Metacritic average was 70%. That's just ok, but it should score with Oscar voters for its sheer technological virtuosity in any case.

EW's Dave Karger reviews the post-Christmas Oscar landscape. Needing a serious boost from critics was Revolutionary Road, reviewed Friday. The LAT's Turan loved it. Rotten Tomatoes' top critics give it 80%, which is good, but Metacritic is at 71%. I'm not feeling the Academy love for this movie, except for Kate Winslet, who could win the best actress Oscar for the double whammy of Road and The Reader. And Michael Shannon has a shot at a supporting actor nom.

As if Warners' Oscar campaign for The Dark Knight weren't enough--they're not just buying ads and courting the media but deluging press with soundtracks, printed scripts and other materials---check out this viral fan-driven Oscar campaign for The Dark Knight. Dark Campaign is sending postcards to Variety to drum up support for their cause.

I'm not sure what that will accomplish: in any case, the movie itself has already inspired considerable media support, not just from the likes of me but from awards givers like AFI. Here's an early Variety feature story about why the Academy should consider superhero performances.

While Heath Ledger and a rash of Dark Knight nominations are inevitable, my sense is that Dark Knight, Revolutionary Road, The Reader and Doubt are vying for the fifth best picture slot (assuming that Slumdog Millionaire, Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon and Milk occupy four). Each of these film has supporters--and many other films do as well. The one to get the most passionate support will gain that fifth spot on the ballot. Does Wall-E have a chance? Too many people--especially actors--assume that it gets an animation nom--and likely win. And I've heard people argue, also, that features and animation should be considered as different kinds of films. I don't believe in the animation ghetto. But it's how things are set up now.

Wendy and Lucy tops Film Comment's annual critics poll of 20 best films of 2008:

1. Wendy and Lucy Kelly Reichardt, U.S. 580
2. Flight of the Red Balloon Hou Hsiao-hsien, Taiwan/France 564
3. A Christmas Tale Arnaud Desplechin, France 557
4. Happy-Go-Lucky Mike Leigh, U.K. 538
5. WALL·E Andrew Stanton, U.S. 534
6. Still Life Jia Zhang-ke, Hong Kong/China 521
7. Paranoid Park Gus Van Sant, France/U.S. 465
8. Waltz with Bashir Ari Folman, Israel/France/Germany 424
9. My Winnipeg Guy Maddin, Canada 406
10. Milk Gus Van Sant, U.S. 356
11. Let the Right One In Tomas Alfredson, Sweden 351
12. The Duchess of Langeais Jacques Rivette, France/Italy 335
13. The Class Laurence Cantet, France 334
14. Synecdoche, New York Charlie Kaufman, U.S. 297
15. Hunger Steve McQueen, U.K. 289
16. Silent Light Carlos Reygadas, Mexico/France/Netherlands 286
17. Ballast Lance Hammer, U.S. 283
18. Man on Wire James Marsh, U.K. 282
19. The Exiles Kent Mackenzie, U.S. 257
20. Gomorrah Matteo Garrone, Italy 253

I do love Wendy and Lucy, which made the AFI Top Ten American movies of last year, and did well with the Alliance of Women Film Journalists as well.

Here's my Top Ten:

1. Wall-E
2. Slumdog Millionaire
3. Milk
4. Everlasting Moments
5. Happy-Go-Lucky
6. A Christmas Tale
7. Man on Wire
8. Waltz with Bashir
9. Wendy and Lucy
10. Appaloosa

Doubt scored a much-needed boost from the SAG nominating committee, earning five noms for Meryl Streep, Amy Adams, Viola Davis, Philip Seymour Hoffman and ensemble cast; John Patrick Shanley's adaptation of his hit play is also likely to do well with Academy actors. Kate Winslet added a supporting actress nom for The Reader to her best actress nom for Revolutionary Road, but her co-star Leonardo DiCaprio was snubbed.

Among the ensemble cast nominees, Frost/Nixon, Milk, Slumdog Millionaire and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button are all considered front-runners for best picture Oscar noms. But SAG voted in Doubt over The Dark Knight or Revolutionary Road.

In the actors category, Richard Jenkins and Brad Pitt got a leg up in their bids for Oscar noms, while the screen actors chose to snub Clint Eastwood's growly performance in Gran Torino.

Left off the best actress list was Kristin Scott Thomas for France's I've Loved You So Long, which many voters may not have seen, along with the minimalist Wendy and Lucy, starring long-shot Michelle Williams.

The actors gave a surprising supporting nom to Dev Patel for Slumdog Millionaire. They also supported Robert Downey Jr.'s comic turn in Tropic Thunder (which after all is all about acting) and continued the drumbeat for Josh Brolin in Milk and Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight.

Penelope Cruz is looking unstoppable for an Oscar supporting nom for Woody Allen's Vicky Cristina Barcelona. Taraji P. Henson is also gaining strength for her turn in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.

See the SAG nominations list on the jump:

Here's the latest internal Variety memo from Jon Weisman updating critics' group awards:

Surging: Heath Ledger and "Let the Right One In"

Honorors of the Day: Toronto Film Critics
Honorees of the Day: "Wendy (You had the dogfood money in your pocket!) and Lucy" and Jonathan (Twenty Minutes of Wedding Toasts) Demme

- Jon

PICTURE
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
St. Louis Film Critics

“The Dark Knight”
Austin Film Critics

“Happy-Go-Lucky”
Satellite Awards (comedy/musical)

"Milk"
New York Film Critics
San Francisco Film Critics Circle
Southeastern Film Critics

"Slumdog Millionaire"
Alliance of Women Film Journalists
Boston Society of Film Critics
Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics
National Board of Review
New York Film Critics Online
Phoenix Film Critics Society
San Diego Critics SocietySatellite Awards (drama)
Washington, D.C. Area Film Critics

"Wall-E"
Boston Society of Film Critics (tie)
Los Angeles Film Critics

“Wendy and Lucy”
Toronto Film Critics

ACTOR
Clint Eastwood
National Board of Review

Ricky Gervais
Satellite Awards (comedy/musical)

Richard Jenkins
Satellite Awards (drama)

Sean Penn
Alliance of Women Film Journalists
Austin Film Critics Boston Society of Film Critics (tie)
Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics
Los Angeles Film Critics
New York Film Critics
New York Film Critics Online
Phoenix Film Critics SocietySt. Louis Film Critics
San Francisco Film Critics Circle (tie)
Southeastern Film Critics

Mickey Rourke
Boston Society of Film Critics (tie)
San Diego Critics SocietySan Francisco Film Critics Circle (tie)
Toronto Film Critics
Washington, D.C. Area Film Critics

ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway
Austin Film Critics Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics
National Board of Review
Southeastern Film Critics

Sally Hawkins
Alliance of Women Film Journalists (tie)
Boston Society of Film Critics
Los Angeles Film Critics
New York Film Critics
New York Film Critics Online
San Francisco Film Critics Circle
Satellite Awards (comedy/musical)

Angelina Jolie
Satellite Awards (drama)

Meryl Streep
Phoenix Film Critics SocietyWashington, D.C. Area Film Critics

Michelle Williams
Toronto Film Critics

Kate Winslet
Alliance of Women Film Journalists (tie)
St. Louis Film Critics
San Diego Critics Society

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin
New York Film Critics
National Board of Review

Heath Ledger
Alliance of Women Film Journalists
Austin Film Critics Boston Society of Film Critics
Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics
Los Angeles Film Critics
New York Film Critics Online
Phoenix Film Critics SocietySt. Louis Film Critics
San Diego Critics SocietySan Francisco Film Critics Circle
Southeastern Film Critics Toronto Film Critics
Washington, D.C. Area Film Critics

Michael Shannon
Satellite Awards

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz
Boston Society of Film Critics
Los Angeles Film Critics
New York Film Critics
New York Film Critics Online
National Board of Review
Southeastern Film Critics

Viola Davis
Alliance of Women Film Journalists
Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics
St. Louis Film Critics

Rosemarie DeWitt
Satellite Awards
Toronto Film Critics
Washington, D.C. Area Film Critics

Taraji P. Henson
Austin Film Critics

Marisa Tomei
Phoenix Film Critics SocietySan Diego Critics SocietySan Francisco Film Critics Circle

DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle
Alliance of Women Film Journalists
Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics
Los Angeles Film Critics
New York Film Critics Online (with Loveleen Tandan)
Phoenix Film Critics SocietySt. Louis Film Critics
San Diego Critics SocietySatellite Awards
Southeastern Film Critics Washington, D.C. Area Film Critics

Jonathan Demme
Toronto Film Critics

David Fincher
National Board of Review

Mike Leigh
New York Film Critics

Christopher Nolan
Austin Film Critics

Gus Van Sant
Boston Society of Film Critics
San Francisco Film Critics Circle

Variety's Jon Weisman assembled these revealing lists of critics group awards. Remember that while these wins help to build momentum and throw attention on films and talent, boosting the possibility that Academy members will check out a film, critics and Academy voters do not always think alike. I don't think Slumdog Millionaire, Dark Knight, Wall-E or Milk have anything to worry about. But thanks to critics, more people will look at Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Rachel Getting Married, The Wrestler, Man on Wire, The Visitor and Happy-Go-Lucky.

PICTURE
“Happy-Go-Lucky”
Satellite Awards (comedy/musical)

"Milk"
New York Film Critics

"Slumdog Millionaire"
Boston Society of Film Critics
National Board of Review
New York Film Critics Online
Satellite Awards (drama)
Washington, D.C. Area Film Critics

"Wall-E"
Boston Society of Film Critics (tie)
Los Angeles Film Critics

ACTOR
Clint Eastwood
National Board of Review

Ricky Gervais
Satellite Awards (comedy/musical)

Richard Jenkins
Satellite Awards (drama)

Sean Penn
Boston Society of Film Critics (tie)
Los Angeles Film Critics
New York Film Critics
New York Film Critics Online

Mickey Rourke
Boston Society of Film Critics (tie)
Washington, D.C. Area Film Critics

ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway
National Board of Review

Sally Hawkins
Boston Society of Film Critics
Los Angeles Film Critics
New York Film Critics
New York Film Critics Online
Satellite Awards (comedy/musical)

Angelina Jolie
Satellite Awards (drama)

Meryl Streep
Washington, D.C. Area Film Critics

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin
New York Film Critics
National Board of Review

Heath Ledger
Boston Society of Film Critics
Los Angeles Film Critics
New York Film Critics Online
Washington, D.C. Area Film Critics

Michael Shannon
Satellite Awards

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz
Boston Society of Film Critics
Los Angeles Film Critics
New York Film Critics
New York Film Critics Online
National Board of Review

Rosemarie DeWitt
Satellite Awards
Washington, D.C. Area Film Critics

DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle
Los Angeles Film Critics
New York Film Critics Online (with Loveleen Tandan)
Satellite Awards
Washington, D.C. Area Film Critics

David Fincher
National Board of Review

Mike Leigh
New York Film Critics

Gus Van Sant
Boston Society of Film Critics

I voted on the best films of the year with two very different groups this week, The Alliance of Women Film Journalists and the AFI Awards. One movie that did surprisingly well with both groups was Frozen River (pictured), whose stars Melissa Leo and Misty Upham and writer-director Courtney Hunt were all singled out for praise.

Soon, I will come up with my own top ten list. Even though I obsessively want to make sure I have seen everything, there's no way I'll be able to catch up with all the films that have slipped through the cracks, among them Gomorra, Chop Shop, Cadillac Records, Foot Fist Way, Ghost Town, and Stronger, Bigger, Faster.

Here's the AFI list. Yes, we left off Slumdog Millionaire--the creators and backers of the film must be primarily American. It's the American Film Insititute! (And they also don't include docs.)

Here's the AFI top ten:

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“The Dark Knight”

“Frost/Nixon”

“Frozen River”

“Gran Torino”

“Iron Man”

“Milk”

“WALL-E”

“Wendy and Lucy”

“The Wrestler”

On this list, the strongest potential Oscar contenders are Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, and Milk. And you know the other strong Oscar suitor: Slumdog Millionaire. Although Revolutionary Road, Changeling, Rachel Getting Married, Doubt and The Reader did not make the AFI cut, they all have a shot at some Oscar noms, particularly from the actors branch.

The AWFJ awards are listed on the jump:

With an Oscar nomination for Doubt at stake, Meryl Streep gamely turned up to do her stint on Letterman even though she was clearly under the influence of a serious head cold:

One thing to keep in mind with Stephen Daldry and David Hare's adaptation of The Reader is that Bernhard Schlink's novel was written for German audiences. These British filmmakers faced a gauntlet of challenges in translating the movie for global viewers, not to mention American ones. Here's my column.

Greencine collects reaction to the movie; Thelma Adams questions the relationship between the 35-year-old woman and a 15-year-old boy. This never bothered me. Writer David Hare thinks Americans are a tad Puritanical in this regard.

The Bagger reports on one Reader party in NYC; Karina Longworth and Patrick Goldstein react to Manohla Dargis's NYT pan. Here's the NYT's feature. UPDATE: The Guardian publishes Hare's take.

My take on the movie: maybe it should have been done with German actors. Even in English. But even better in German. Odd that The Reader comes out at the same time as Valkyrie, which is actually pretty good. It too has a mix of actors with a wide range of authentic and inauthentic accents. What if cool Brits Kate Winslet (who is very good) and Ralph Fiennes had been replaced by Germans like David Kross and Bruno Ganz?

The last time I cried on the way home from a movie was Million Dollar Baby. As I drove, I thought about the movie's battered girl in the hospital bed, surrounded by heartless relatives, and the coach who who loved her like a father. Down came the tears.

Clint Eastwood knows what he's doing. On my way home from Gran Torino, which made me laugh until the end, I started crying again. I suspect that the range of reactions to this spare movie, which Eastwood is releasing within a year of having first read the script, has to do with how people feel about Eastwood and his characters over the years, from Dirty Harry and The Man with No Name to Pale Rider's Preacher or the angry gunslinger bent on revenge in Unforgiven. Gran Torino's cranky Korean War vet Walt Kowalski consciously calls up an entire career of performances.

It's also generational. How we feel about the 78-year-old actor-director, who represents the values of an entire generation--good values, not just the prejudices he makes fun of in the movie--will also have an impact on our reaction. No matter what you think of Gran Torino--over-the-top though it may be--the Academy will respond well to this performance. This wily old codger could even give Sean Penn a run for his money.

Time's Richard Corliss lays it out here. And the WSJ's Joe Morgenstern likes it too.

Universal, Miramax and Paramount/Warners are heaving huge sighs of relief that the Golden Globes rewarded Frost/Nixon, Doubt and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button with five nominations apiece. The three films had been virtually overlooked by influential critics' groups in L.A. and N.Y. this week. Only Frost/Nixon and Benjamin Button were nominated in the Globes' best feature drama category, though, which tends to carry more weight than the comedy category. Doubt scored four acting noms, plus screenplay for John Patrick Shanley.

The Globes are voted on by a relatively small and insular group, the 80-member Hollywood Foreign Press Association, who are often wined and dined by studios eager to get the extra boost of attention from Globe noms at the height of the pre-Oscar nomination season when Academy voters are deciding which DVDs to watch. The noms are not predictive, but do help build momentum.

Thus although the Globes saw fit to only recognize Sean Penn's performance in Gus Van Sant's very American and very political Milk (which won best film from the NYFCC), that should not hurt its overall awards chances. Nor would this group be particularly drawn to a fable beloved by both American moviegoers and critics, The Dark Knight. And Gran Torino's masterful, reflexive performance by actor/director Clint Eastwood is more likely to play to the Academy than the HFPA. (Oddly, they rewarded Eastwood for score for the Changeling and best song for Gran Torino.)

For example, Harvey Weinstein has always done well with The Globes and won their support for Stephen Daldry's The Reader, set in post-World War II Germany and starring Kate Winslet, who also stars in her husband Sam Mendes' nominated drama Revolutionary Road, for which she grabbed a best actress nom. Both films grabbed four noms. And Winslet was given a supporting actress nom for The Reader, to prevent her from competing with herself. Both films needed a boost, as they were also neglected by the critics groups.

Well on their way to awards season glory are Danny Boyle's Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) and Woody Allen's Vicky Cristina Barcelona (Weinstein Co.). which nabbed four noms apiece. And Searchlight's The Wrestler is solidifying more acting noms for Mickey Rourke and Marisa Tomei.

Ben Stiller's Paramount comedy Tropic Thunder scored two noms for Tom Cruise and Robert Downey, Jr., which isn't so surprising when you consider that the HFPA is often voting for who will attend the Golden Globes Awards party. Thus both Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie gained noms for Button and Changeling, a feat that won't necessarily be repeated come Oscar nominations morning January 22.

The noms in the comedy categories are unlikely to have much impact on the Academy voters, who tend to reward gravitas, although Sally Hawkins, who was won best actress from the NYFCC, could score a best actress slot on January 22. Meryl Streep is more likely to land an Oscar nom for Doubt than for the raucous musical Mamma Mia!

Kristin Scott Thomas finally got some recognition for her role in the French film I've Loved You So Long, which was also nommed in the foreign film category, along with Jan Troell's Everlasting Moments, the Swedish Oscar entry, which is picking up support.

I'm not a big fan of live-blogging, but it does work occasionally, as NY Post critic-blogger Lou Lumenick demonstrates with his play-by-play reporting of the New York Film Critics's divisive voting this morning.

Thus, Rachel Getting Married led the first two ballots and Milk pulled ahead on the third, followed by Happy-Go-Lucky and Slumdog Millionaire; Milk star Sean Penn handily beat The Wrestler's Mickey Rourke; Milk's Josh Brolin beat out The Dark Knight's Heath Ledger; and documentary Oscar front-runner Man on Wire beat out Waltz with Bashir and Trouble the Water. Vicky Cristina Barcelona's Penelope Cruz easily defeated Viola Davis of Doubt; third place was a tie between Rachel Getting Married's Rosemary DeWitt and Debra Winger. Happy-Go-Lucky writer-director Mike Leigh narrowly edged out Slumdog Millionaire's Danny Boyle. Wall-E took best animated feature over Waltz with Bashir.

Here's Lumenick on how the best actress vote went down, which helps explain the ballot process:

Sally Hawkins of "Happy-Go-Lucky'' won the New York Film Critics Circle award for Best Actress as voting got under way this morning at the Time-Life Building. Hawkins won on the second weighted ballot, receiving 39 points to 32 points for Melissa Leo of "Frozen River,'' with Kate Winslet ("Revolutionary Road'') and Anne Hathaway ("Rachel Getting Married'') with 22 apiece. In the NYFCC's convoluted voting system, the critics make one choice apiece n the first round. If nothing captures a majority, there follows one or more weighted ballots, each critic ranks choices with 3, 2, and 1 points; the winner also has to appear on the majority of ballots until the fouth ballot (if there is one) -- in Hawkins' case, 18 ballots.

OSCAR ANALYSIS
Finally, the critics voting solidifies my thinking re: the Oscar race. The Golden Globes may add some fuel tomorrow, but for now I see Milk as the front-runner for best picture, followed by Slumdog Millionaire and The Dark Knight, with The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon, Doubt and Revolutionary Road fighting it out for last two slots. Penn may be the front-runner now, but the man he has to beat is Clint Eastwood, who gives a devastating performance in Gran Torino. The Academy will be moved to tears by him. Mickey Rourke looks solid for a nom. The Visitor's Richard Jenkins could have used more help here.

Thanks to critics, Sally Hawkins and Melissa Leo are moving into best actress contention, while I've Loved You So Long's Kristin Scott Thomas may not. Changeling's Angelina Jolie is fading fast. Milk's Josh Brolin and James Franco could both win supporting slots.

Revolutionary Road will be in the hunt for picture, director, adapted screenplay, actress, actor and supporting actor. But the grim, serious drama needs some love at this point, especially from critics. And may get it.

The Reader, which may have a shot for Kate Winslet in supporting and David Hare for adapted screenplay, has a long way to go. It got slammed by critics today, earning an initial 54 % on Metacritic. That is not good enough. It needs all the help it can get.

Doubt has the support of the dominant actors branch and likely the writers (if not directors); it will be vying for actress, supporting actress, supporting actor and adapted screenplay.

Much as I admire Four Months, Three Weeks, Two Days, it strikes me as oddly perverse for the NYFCC to throw their foreign vote away on a movie that is only available on DVD at this point, rather than trying to boost the theatrical and Oscar fortunes of a new upcoming release. But it's a free country.

The full list of winners is on the jump:

Paramount Pictures threw a black tie premiere for David Fincher's The Curious Case of Benjamin Button last night at the Mann's Chinese in Hollywood, followed by a rizty party at the CAA office building in Century City. It was the Avenue of the Stars indeed: Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie were having such a good time working the crowd--including Jennifer Lopez, Sharon Stone, Brett Ratner, Paramount studio chief Brad Grey and Viacom topper Sumner Redstone as well as Pitt's costars Tilda Swinton, Julia Ormond and Cate Blanchett--that they stayed well after midnight.

Red Carpet Video:

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: Oscar Profile
• L.A. premiere (Photos)

What's great about the L.A. Film Critics and Time Magazine's Richard Corliss voting Wall-E as best film is that not only is it among the best-reviewed movies of the year (93 % on Metacritic), which means that most critics adore it, but it's an underdog. I've gotten into trouble for suggesting that critics groups ever vote with an eye on other upcoming awards votes. But perhaps the critics' desire to help Wall-E helped knock out its stiffest competitor, The Dark Knight, which doesn't need any help at this point. Wall-E was also a huge boxoffice success, but what it needs is respect. This is the first time the critics' group has awarded its top prize to an animated film.

I like the way the LA critics reveal their runner-ups. Slumdog Millionaire continues to do well, with prizes for director and score, and Mike Leigh's Happy-Go-Lucky snagged major wins for screenplay and actress Sally Hawkins. Frozen River's Melissa Leo was the runner-up in that category, which makes me wonder about Kristin Scott Thomas's chances to break into the Oscar Top Five; maybe not everyone has seen I've Loved You So Long. She needs some wins to get there.

In the best actor race, Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke solidified their front-runner status, leaving Frank Langella as an also-ran; Frost/Nixon was shut out by the critics, as was The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, which had to settle for runner-up for Alexandre Desplat's score. For supporting actor, Heath Ledger will be tough to beat. The critics awarded Penelope Cruz supporting actress for her perfs in two films, Woody Allen's Vicky Cristina Barcelona and Elegy, leavng Viola Davis in the runner-up spot for Doubt. Israeli Waltz with Bashir won not only best animated film but runner-up for best documentary, a category for which it is ineligible for the Oscars.

Here's the full list:

Picture: "Wall-E" Runner-up: "The Dark Knight"

Director: Danny Boyle, "Slumdog Millionaire"
Runner-up: Christopher Nolan, "The Dark Knight"

Actor: Sean Penn, "Milk"
Runner-up: Mickey Rourke, "The Wrestler"

Actress: Sally Hawkins, "Happy-Go-Lucky"
Runner-up: Melissa Leo, "Frozen River"

Supporting actor: Heath Ledger, "The Dark Knight"
Runner-up: Eddie Marsan, "Happy-Go-Lucky"

Supporting actress: Penelope Cruz, "Vicky Cristina Barcelona" and "Elegy"
Runner-up: Viola Davis, "Doubt"

Screenplay: Mike Leigh, "Happy-Go-Lucky"
Runner-up: Charlie Kaufman, "Synecdoche, New York"

The guy could write. The story of Revolutionary Road author Richard Yates, told in excruciating detail in Blake Bailey's 2003 A Tragic Honesty: The Life and Work of Richard Yates, moves me, partly because he got so little encouragement, yet went back to writing every morning, hung over or not. And he insisted on drinking and smoking himself to death. But he knew he was a good writer, and that sustained him. Here's my column.

Yates strikes a chord with me because my father sat at the dining room table every night at his Royal typewriter, a glass of cheap sherry at his elbow and a Kool wasting away in the ashtray. Yates was what he aspired to be. How many writers, inspired by the likes of Hemingway, Fitzgerald, and Salinger, pecked away at the great American novel? And never succeeded? (My father's debut novel, Halfway Down the Stairs, was launched to good reviews in 1957. He never got another one published.)

Karina Longworth gets me slightly wrong on the movie adaptation of Revolutionary Road. I don't think any producer from Hollywood or elsewhere could adapt this book for the movies without warming it up. You have to give the audience some reason to hang in there. Much as I admire the book, Yates is tough and brutal. Sam Mendes and screenwriter Justin Haythe, Winslet and Leonardo DiCaprio kept the story grim and honest while figuring out a way to cut through the darkness.

Here's James Wood's appreciation of Yates and Revolutionary Road in The New Yorker.

And Tim Dumas in Westport Magazine.

[Illustration courtesy The New Yorker]

The winners of this year's International Documentary Awards were announced Friday night at a ceremony at the DGA. (Waltz with Bashir and Man on Wire tied for best feature doc.) But the highlight of the night was director Werner Herzog's tribute. After showing stellar clips from Little Dieter Learns to Fly, Grizzly Man and his most recent doc, Encounters at the End of the World (which is short-listed for Oscar consideration), Herzog got a standing ovation and gave a speech.

"There are deeper strata of truth in cinema and there's such a thing as poetic ecstatic truth," said the director, who thanked his editor on his last fourteen docs and features, Joe Bini. "In being a filmmaker I really tried to find an answer about what constitutes reality...we have to individually find our own ways. I have tried to find something much deeper, something that constitutes truth, which is hard to grasp. In my filmmaking I have tried to find some sort of ecstasy where you are deeply moved and illuminated. If you leave pure facts behind...truth can create illumination."

At dinner afterwards, the classically educated Herzog cited Virgil's joyful The Georgiad as a source of inspiration for Encounters at the End of the World, yet another of his celebrations of the wonders to be found on this earth. The filmmaker arrived in Antarctica without knowing what his movie would be; he looked for interesting people and chose his subjects as he went. He was not permitted to dive under the ice, much as the fearless documentarian would have liked to. He denies that he is in any way a "journalist" or "reporter." He's seeking truth, which is something else entirely.

A complete list of winners is on the jump:

The Washington D.C. Area Film Critics have added more heat to the Slumdog Millionaire awards juggernaut, awarding four prizes to the film including Best Film and Best Director.

Here are the winners:

Best Film: Slumdog Millionaire/Fox Searchlight
Best Director: Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire)
Best Actor: Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)
Best Actress: Meryl Streep (Doubt)
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight)
Best Supporting Actress: Rosemarie DeWitt (Rachel Getting Married)
Best Original Screenplay: Jenny Lumet (Rachel Getting Married)
Best Adapted Screenplay: Simon Beaufoy (Slumdog Millionaire)
Best Animated: Wall∙E/Disney&Pixar
Best Documentary: Man on Wire/Magnolia Pictures
Best Foreign Film: Let the Right One In/Magnolia Pictures and Magnet Releasing
Best Ensemble: Doubt/Miramax
Best Breakthrough: Dev Patel (Slumdog Millionaire)
Best Art Direction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button/Paramount

Gomorra, the Italian submission for the Oscars, won five prizes at the 21st European Film Awards held on December 6 in Copenhagen. The gangster movie based on a novel book by Roberto Saviano won best film, best actor (Toni Servillo) and best director (Matteo Garonne). Gomorra will be released stateside by IFC Films, which is also releasing Hunger, which won an discovery award for Steve McQueen. (Here's Variety's review from Cannes, where it won the Grand Prix.)

Kristin Scott Thomas, a British actress who has lived in France for 25 years, won best actress for the French film I've Loved You So Long, which Sony PIctures Classics is releasing in the U.S.

The full list of winners is on the jump: