Thompson On Hollywood

Cannes Watch: Indiana Jones

I saw it coming. Ever since Paramount announced that Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom Kingdom of the Crystal Skull would not screen for anyone before its May 18 unveiling at Cannes (in advance of its worldwide launch May 22), I felt that Spielberg and Co. might be setting themselves up. The anticipation of this film is too great, the pressure for information is wrecking havoc on the internet. As the NYT reports, several exhibitor screenings have added to the din surrounding this film. So far the PR strategy has been to dole out interviews to press who have not yet seen it; Vanity Fair, EW, the LAT and others have played ball.

And at Cannes, select press are being invited to do interviews before the official press screening at 1 PM on May 18. This will add more pressure to the press conference that day. UPDATE: Paramount is also not throwing a party, instead sticking to a small exclusive film dinner. That's not winning them any popularity contests.

Sony learned the hard way the power of a roomful of 4000 critics waiting to find a movie wanting at Cannes with the Da Vinci Code. Moviegoers ignored their complaints and made the film a worldwide blockbuster. But the filmmakers had hoped to score a prestige win at Cannes. Ron Howard and Brian Grazer left Cannes with their egos badly bruised.

Spielberg, who is staying in one of the big yachts in the harbor, may be hoping to return to the site of his early career triumphs with Sugarland Express and E.T., which was such a huge smash at Cannes that it burnished Spielberg's profile as a star director with a special place in filmgoers' hearts. Indiana Jones is a favorite franchise returning after 18 years. It may fulfill all that is hoped for; it will certainly score a huge global opening. That's not the issue. It will be fascinating to see if Cannes gives back to Spielberg what he may be hoping to get from it.

If the audience skews older, as I suspect it will, I wonder if Paramount might not have lured more of the key younger demo by waiting to open the film after they get out of school. It's early summer days yet.

Weekend Boxoffice: Iron Man vs. Speed Racer

Iron Man and Speed Racer will duke it out for the top spot this weekend as advance ticket sales for Indiana Jones 4, Narnia 2 and Sex and the City heat up. (Sex and the City's tracking is fascinating; its awareness and want-to-see are strong with women and off the charts terrible for men, especially those under 25: 3 % definite interest! Which makes this a two and a half quadrant movie targeted at women and gay men. Here's Peter Bart on the subject of chick flicks.)

The LAT analyzes Speed Racer's presumed boxoffice weakness: why does this movie have to be number one and be a blockbuster? Why can't it just open? Family movies tend to last longer in the marketplace. Just asking. It didn't land good reviews: 36% on the Tomatometer (Rotten). It looks like I like Speed Racer better than most, along with Richard Corliss, who says it's the future of movies. UPDATE: Some critics just didn't get the movie at all. It's for kids! Salon's Stephanie Zacharek writes:

"Andy and Larry Wachowski's "Speed Racer" is so bereft of intelligence, style and excitement that I can't figure out who in the world it's supposed to appeal to: baby boomers nostalgic for the old Japanamation cartoon on which it's based? Parents who want to cultivate ADD in their kids?"

Fantasy Moguls has its own take on on why Speed Racer may struggle this weekend. Steve Mason calls it the "death slot." The second weekend of the summer is where you don't want to be.

In 8 of the past 10 years, the movie that signaled the start of Hollywood’s most lucrative season went on to win the next weekend. This weekend on the release schedule has included full-on disasters, like 2006’s Poseidon, medieval action film A Knight’s Tale in 2001and 2000’s horrific laugher Battlefield Earth.

Speed Racer will not be a disaster. This may be remembered as a disappointment domestically, but, especially with the presence of Asian music superstar Rain, the film will perform well overseas, particularly in Japan, South Korea and China where he has a huge following.

Fandango Five – Ticket Sales (as of 5/9/08 10:00 a.m. PT)

Movie Fandango User Rating % Fandango Sales

Iron Man “Must Go” 33%

Speed Racer “Go” 32%

Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull “Must Go” 11%

The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian “Go” 7%

Sex and the City “Go” 6%

Fandango Weekly Poll (as of 5/9/08 10:00 a.m. PT)

Iron Man's now playing everywhere. Among previous comic book/graphic novel movies listed below, which one is your favorite?

Batman Begins 29%

Spider-Man 22%

X-Men 18%

300 17%

Superman Returns 8%

Sin City 6%

Weekend Boxoffice: Iron Man Passes $100 Million

Fantasy Moguls' Steve Mason has been predicting a $100 million opening weekend gross (including Thursday night figures) for Iron Man. And he was right.

Official estimates collected Sunday reveal that the pic grossed about $100.7 million over the three day weekend, plus $3.5 million Thursday night, for a total of $104.2 million. So much for the tracking! Women did show; the movie skewed 57% over the age of 25.

Summer Begins: Iron Man, Speed Racer, and Superheroes

Let the summer games begin. The LAT's Ken Turan takes on summer blockbuster syndrome, while The Huffington Post addresses summer superheroes.

The summer starts off with Thursday night's opening of Iron Man, which earned 95% fresh reviews on Rotten Tomatoes so far. The NYT's A.O. Scott calls it "an unusually good superhero picture." The New Yorker's David Denby calls it a "whooshing junk pile." Everybody likes Robert Downey. (Variety reviews the Iron Man viedeogame.)

The movie is expected to open well, between $65 and $100 million, depending on how seriously you take the tracking that shows young women are not interested in seeing the picture--only 19% first choice-- which makes it a "three quadrant" movie for starters. The biggest blockbusters, like Narnia, wind up pulling everybody. Young men under 25 have 95% awareness of Iron Man, 65% definite interest and 35% first choice. Women over 25 are more interested in Downey and Gwenyth Paltrow; they will spread the word that Downey is fun and Paltrow actually has a decent role. So the picture could hold well.

Luckily for Paramount, next weekend's Speed Racer (well-reviewed by Variety) is not pulling strong advance tracking numbers, so that might give Iron Man some room to breathe before they open Indiana Jones on May 22. Here's the weekend forecast from Fantasy Moguls and Variety.

I wasn't sure what to expect from Speed Racer from the advance marketing, so I was pleasantly surprised. First, it's really a little kids' movie, more like Pixar's Cars than anything else. Second, the Wachowskis have a solid story with a strong moral theme to hang their gorgeous stylized pyrotechnics on. I don't particularly care about car racing, but I cared about the characters and the family led by John Goodman and Susan Sarandon at the film's center. Speed Racer Emile Hirsch and gal pal Christina Ricci are fine (utterly sexless couples are a theme of the summer so far). And I was dazzled by the Wachowski's eye candy. You can read the movie as a parable of the filmmakers' experience in Hollywood--they're rooting for creative innocence and pure instinct over the corrupt vagaries of the marketplace.

The other movie opening this weekend that roots for innocent indie filmmaking over the compromises of the star system is Son of Rambow, a hit at Sundance 2007 that was fought over; Paramount Vantage grabbed it for $8 million. But the film was delayed by various rights legalities (having to do with Carolco's Rambo) and finally arrives late on the scene with its momentum lost. (It is a hit in the U.K.) And it follows in the wake of the similar Be Kind Rewind, which died at the boxoffice.

In this delightful and expertly executed 80s-set British comedy from Hammer and Tongs (The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy), two unlikely schoolmate-collaborators pool their resources to shoot a short and suddenly find themselves hugely popular at school. One soaks up the attention, the other doesn't. Here's Variety's Speed Racer Blockbuster Page, with review, clips, trailers and a cool feature on VFX whiz John Gaeta.

The movie has played 27 fests since its Sundance debut, and Vantage hopes that means it has built up some good WOM. It opens in NY and LA this weekend, moves to 30-35 screens in the top 12 markets May 9, and expands to 70-80 screens in the top 25 markets on May 16. By the 23rd of May it should be on 200 screens in the top 60-65 markets. UPDATE: Rotten Tomatoes reviews so far are at 77%; I'm surprised they aren't even better. The genre seems to confuse people. That is, it's a smart movie set in the 80s about kids that's for adults.

Weekend Boxoffice: Harold and Kumar vs. Baby Mama

Amazingly, the dumb-male stoner comedy sequel Harold and Kumar Escape from Guantanamo Bay and Tina Fey's smart female comedy Baby Mama are earning equivalently middling reviews. Harold and Kumar is 53% Rotten on the Tomatometer, and so is Baby Mama. Here are Variety's reviews of Baby Mama and Harold and Kumar. At a Variety conference table meeting last week, one guy asked, "who wants to see Baby Mama?", clearly expecting universal agreement that it was a must-to-avoid. Several women, including me, instantly chimed up, "we do!"

The potboiler Deception, on the other hand, is in the Rotten Tomato doghouse, with a 9 % rotten critics rating.

Here's Variety's weekend forecast. UPDATE: Baby Mama is soundly beating Harold and Kumar.

Fandango Five – Ticket Sales (as of 4/25/08 7:00 a.m. PT)

Movie Fandango User Rating % Fandango Sales

Harold and Kumar Escape from Guantanamo Bay “Go” 18%

Iron Man “Go” 12%

Forgetting Sarah Marshall “Go” 11%

Baby Mama “Go” 8%

The Forbidden Kingdom “Go” 6%

Summer Movies: May Boxoffice Could Surge

The 2008 boxoffice has been dismal so far, and has dipped from last year. But May is looming and with it the promise of some light and nifty summer movie nourishment. Pam McClintock predicts a boffo May boxoffice, launched by what promises to be a mighty Iron Man.

Weekend Boxoffice: Prom Night Beats Street Kings; Bonnie and Clyde Holds Up

Sony's happy: 21 and Prom Night are doing well. Universal is less thrilled that George Clooney's Leatherheads took a steep decline. I didn't go to Street Kings after a pal told me that it's very close to Ron Shelton and David Ayer's 2002 Dark Blue, which I liked.

Instead, I watched my biggest Yankee crush, Mike Mussina, pitch a few innings of a Yankee game, some In Treatment episodes, and the new Bonnie and Clyde DVD. The 1967 collaboration of Arthur Penn, Warren Beatty, Robert Benton and David Newman holds up really well. I remember when Bonnie and Clyde and The Graduate first came out; they were the first movies I went to with my Manhattan school pals instead of my family.

And I recommend my ex-EW editor Mark Harris's well-researched and elegantly written new book Pictures at a Revolution: Five Movies and the Birth of the New Hollywood, which paints a vivid portrait of the 60s period when both of these films were made. I had no idea that New Wavers Truffaut and Godard were interested in making movies in Hollywood, nor that they both flirted with making Bonnie and Clyde. Whenever I read one of these Hollywood books I am reminded that the more things change in Hollywood, the more thay remain the same. Check out this quote, from director Fred Zinnemann:

"If you go to France these days you are constantly involved in passionate discussions about the creative side of moviemaking. Here in Hollywood we are going in circles. We have moved into a trap, a self-imposed, self-induced trap with our dependence on best-sellers, hit plays, remakes and rehashes."

Weekend Boxoffice: Prom Night vs. Street Kings

Here's Variety's b.o. forecast for this weekend. I'll probably catch Street Kings (21% rotten on the Tomatometer). Here's Peter Debruge's review.

Smart People left me completely cold at Sundance (52% on the Tomatometer), although Thomas Hayden Church is always fun to watch. (Here's the LAT profile.) It makes me wonder how much range Ellen Page has; her role is too-familiar. (Here's Michael Sragow's review.) Screen Gems' Prom Night remake was not widely screened for critics. Here's the link to the reviews that are coming in.

UA Pushes Back Cruise and Singer's Valkyrie

In retrospect, the MGM-UA idea is starting to look suspect.

When movie star Tom Cruise and partner Paula Wagner had a producing pact at Paramount, a studio controlled the purse strings, with the power to say no.

But put Cruise and Wagner in charge of a studio, and you have Wagner assembling a slate on the one hand, but who does she answer to? Cruise! And CAA (and husband Rick Nicita) are helping to package projects like Lions for Lambs, which was doomed to be a noble failure from the start. From Cruise/Wagner's perspective, coming from big-studio projects, at $35 million Lambs probably seemed like a modest effort. But it was still too expensive for what it was. Its $15 million domestic gross (of which less than half is returned to the studio) didn't cover its marketing costs. It also earned $42 million overseas. The just-launched DVD release will have to bring the movie into the black.

And Valkyrie is a perfect storm. I hear that director Bryan Singer, who has runaway director tendencies anyway, has run up a $90-million negative tab, which probably seemed reasonable to him, since he was coming off the $200-million Superman Returns. Because Cruise had to promote the opening of Lions for Lambs, Singer postponed three key scenes of the Valkyrie shoot, including one big battle sequence in North Africa. (That's when Cruise's Nazi officer loses his right hand, plus two fingers from his left hand, and an eye.)

But pushing the movie's release date back twice has made it look like tainted goods. Cruise and Wagner took a calculated risk pushing it back to February, knowing that an October date was facing off against the looming Presidential election. As soon as Wolfman and the Pink Panther sequel moved off of Presidents Day, UA jumped on the date. Their October weekend usually yields a b.o. of about $55 million, the thinking went, as opposed to Prexy Day, which usually generates about three times that. Singer and Cruise signed off on the promise of a possible Superbowl spot, Berlin Film Fest launch, and a bigger boxoffice bonanza.

They must have known how the town would react. When you say: "No, we don't have a summer movie, it's a fall movie," it really means: "we don't have a commercial movie that will stand up to the competition in wide release, but a quality smart film with possible Oscar potential that needs critics, so we'll go for fall." But push that same movie again into February, and it conjures up All the Kings Men, which was too weak to earn rave reviews and had no identifiable core audience.

The trouble with the whole MGM construct is that a decision about making or picking up a movie for release has to be based on a slew of market equations. Targeting your audience is crucial. Just because Hot Director Bryan Singer and Major Star Tom Cruise want to make a period movie about a Nazi hero doesn't make it worth $90-million (not to mention marketing costs). (Much as I loved it, Alfonso Cuaron's Children of Men shouldn't have cost that much either. Who was the audience?)

MGM CEO Harry Sloan was smart to hire Mary Parent to run MGM. She will run studio production, marketing and distribution. (That's why Rick Sands is out.) She will be damn sure to pick movies she can market. That's half the battle. And Hollywood sat up and took notice of this move, because they know that Parent gets it.

Weekend Boxoffice: Leatherheads vs. Nim's Island

At the weekend boxoffice, George Clooney's period screwball comedy Leatherleads (54% rotten on Rotten Tomatoes) dukes it out with family film Nim's Island, starring Jodie Foster (46 %). Here's Variety's boxoffice forecast.

The one to see, especially if you appreciate Martin Scorsese's mise-en-scene and the Rolling Stones in performance, is Shine a Light, which earned 86% fresh on the Tomatometer. (Here's Stephen Schaefer's report of the Stones' NYC press conference.) I will be catching up with Stop-Loss (62%) while it is still in theaters.

Fandango Five – Ticket Sales (as of 4/4/08 10:00 a.m. PT)

Movie Fandango User Rating % Fandango Sales

Nim’s Island “Go” 15%

Leatherheads “Go” 12%

Shine a Light “Go” 12%

21 “Go” 7%

Dr. Seuss’ Horton Hears a Who! “Go” 7%

Fandango Weekly Poll (as of 4/4/08 10:00 a.m. PT)

George Clooney's Leatherheads opens this week. Of the movies below, which one is your favorite Clooney flick?

Ocean's Eleven 43%

O Brother, Where Art Thou? 31%

Michael Clayton 10%

Three Kings 7%

Out of Sight 6%

Syriana 3%

21 Tops Weekend: A Star is Born

I was disappointed by 21, which scored a miserable 32% on Rotten Tomatoes, at the same time that I knew that Robert Luketic had crafted an entertaining male fantasy crowd-pleaser.

21 opened surprisingly well, because it looks like fun. (The NYT's Manohla Dargis was not pleased.)

Coming off a weekend like this: Brit Jim Sturgess (Across the Universe) is a rising star. He's handsome. He can act. He can carry a movie that the critics don't like. He can sing. He can woo a girl. And he can do a credible American accent. Sold. EW's Owen Gleiberman agrees. Here's Lynn Hirschberg's fall profile.

Next up: Wayne Kramer's ensemble drama about immigration, Crossing Over, starring Harrison Ford and Sean Penn, and Kari Skogland's drama Fifty Dead Men Walking, in which he stars as real-life Martin McGartland, a Brit spy who infiltrates the IRA. And possibly Spider-Man on Broadway, with Julie Taymor, who discovered him, after all.

[NYT photo by Alisdair McClellan]

Weekend Boxoffice: Where's the Beefcake?

I don't remember this scene from Stop-Loss, but don't tell that to Paramount and MTV Films, who'd like you think that the topical Iraq War film is an Abercrombie-style free-for-all. "Stop-Loss is barely registering among potential moviegoers despite generally positive notices," Variety predicts.

Like the marketing campaign (which is selling Stop-Loss like so much canned testosterone but also wants you to take the subject seriously), the movie tries to have it both ways, with patriotism (its characters enlisted to fight terrorism after Afghanistan) and disillusion (when they're ordered back to Iraq after serving their time) literally wrestling over tough questions.

It doesn't star Ryan Phillippe and Channing Tatum, but Sony's 21 looks well positioned to clean up the teen audiences Stop-Loss covets. I haven't seen the film but, like The New Republic's Christopher Orr, I have seen the trailer (he offers a review based on nothing more). I also read Ben Mezrich's book (Bringing Down the House), and the trailer assures me that there's nothing that Vegas, MIT and card counting are the only things the two have in common (what should be an Asian cast is nearly all white, the suggestions of casino debauchery and violence now take center stage, and who the hell know what Kevin Spacey is doing? Wherever there's scenery, the man gets hungry).

That leaves Superhero Movie and Run Fat Boy Run to clean up the remains, although if you're lucky enough to live in New York, do yourself a favor and see Alexander Sokurov's Alexandra instead (it opens in Los Angeles on April 11).

(Peter Debruge)

Summer Movies: Will Indy 4 and Speed Racer be Prescription for Recession Blues?

Hollywood has historically been recession-proof. According to Time, summer popcorn movies like Indy 4 and Speed Racer will be just what America needs as it slides into recession. So why am I, the most ardent moviegoer, making more dates with friends to watch DVDs at various well-appointed home viewing rooms? It's partly because the kid I used to go to weekend movies with is in college. It is also the time of year. I have already seen most of the well-reviewed movies in release. I will be as hungry as everyone else for the big summer pics when they finally arrive, and will see them in theaters.

Weekend Boxoffice: Horton Holds, Perry Performs, Drillbit Dies

Dr. Seuss's Horton Hears a Who! landed atop the boxoffice charts again, while Tyler Perry's latest opened well and Judd Apatow's badly-reviewed Owen Wilson comedy Drillbit Taylor did not. That's two Apatow-produced disappointments now, after Walk Hard. But the next three---Forgetting Sarah Marshall, Pineapple Express and Step Brothers-- look strong.

Time's Richard Corliss profiles Perry while Richard Schickel divebombs Drillbit Taylor.

[Photo courtesy Time Magazine]

Sequels: Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, Indy 4, Dark Knight

Here's a new photo from Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, due in theaters November 21.

Here's more on the final two Harry Potter movie installments and Hollywood's love affair with the sequel from CBS News:

John Hurt gives some scoop on Indiana Jones and Kingdom of the Crystal Skull.

At ShoWest, Christian Bale talks about The Dark Knight and Heath Ledger:

And the NYP looks into George Lucas's move into TV with Star Wars and Clone Wars, which is also going to be an animated movie.

Weekend Boxoffice: Holdover Horton vs. Perry and Madea

So this weekend I will be catching up with new openers The Grand (on screener DVD) and Drillbit Taylor (at a screening).

Otherwise, I will be watching my cache of DVDs and saved TiVo stuff, including HBO's John Adams. (I love it, the marriage especially; it's too dark, but it feels real to me.)

If I were going to a theater I would also see Horton Hears a Who! which actually scored good reviews. Here's the Variety weekend forecast. Tyler Perry anyone? Well, I have yet to check him out, something I hate to admit. It's about time I did.

ShoWest: Summer Preview

Every year ShoWest screens an honor reel of movies that grossed over $100-million the year before. Which of the 2008 ShoWest promo pics will be on next year's reel?

Based on what I saw and reactions gleaned, here's my best guess:

Movie that could pass $300 million: the sequel The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian, which will likely improve on its predecessor with more action and more mature protagonists.

Movies that could go well past $200 million: sequels The Dark Knight, starring Christian Bale and Heath Ledger, Steven Spielberg's Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, starring Harrison Ford and Shia LeBeouf, Rob Cohen's China-shot Mummy 3: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor, starring Brendan Fraser, Jet Li and Michelle Yeoh, and Guillermo del Toro's epic-scale actioner Hellboy II: The Golden Army; plus non-sequels Wanted, starring Angelina Jolie and Morgan Freeman as assassins training rookie James McAvoy, the invulnerable Will Smith as a homeless hero in Hancock, Judd Apatow's dumb male comedy Step Brothers, starring Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly, Marvel's Iron Man, which boasts femme appeal via Robert Downey Jr. and co-star Gwenyth Paltrow, and animated family originals Kung Fu Panda (DreamWorks Animation) and Wall-E (Disney/Pixar).

Movies that could break $100 million: a remake of Marvel's The Incredible Hulk, starring Edward Norton as a thinking man's Bruce Banner; for the femme audience, a remake of the HBO classic Sex and the City, a remake of the boomer TV show Get Smart, starring Steve Carell and Ann Hathaway, Tina Fey and Amy Poehler's surrogate nightmare comedy Baby Mama, and a movie version of the Broadway musical Mamma Mia (also for musical fans); Judd Apatow factory comedies Forgetting Sarah Marshall and Pineapple Express; Ben Stiller's starry R-rated action comedy Tropic Thunder, starring Stiller, Downey, Jack Black and Steve Coogan; the frere Wachowski's adaptation of the anime classic Speed Racer, starring Emile Hirsch and Christina Ricci; and George Lucas's animated sequel Star Wars: The Clone Wars. (Am I the only one who feels a shock that the film is going out through Warners? Even though Lucasfilm controls and markets the movies and collects the lions' share of the take, I feel like all Star Wars movies are supposed to have the Fox fanfare in front of them.)

ShoWest: Product Glut Hits Mid-range Movies

During his annual state of the industry ShoWest address, MPAA chairman Dan Glickman raved about what a great year 2007 was, with 5 % growth in both the domestic and worldwide boxoffice, both all-time highs.

In 2002, there were about 450 movies total released in the U.S., he said, and some 600 titles released in 2007. "All of that growth is independent film," he said. This was a good thing for the industry, he said.

Is that true?

Sure, the studios can ram their movies through the clutter of noise with big ad spends and buy themselves some theater time. But the sector of the market that got killed in 2007 was neither the micro nor big-budget pics but the movies in the $15-million to $70-million range, the ones in the middle, the ones that can't afford the big-studio four-quadrant campaigns. That's where many outside investors have been putting their money. And that's where, going forward, more constriction and consolidation is going to continue.

The market can't sustain all these distributors, all with release slates big enough to justify their existence. The studio subsidiaries are adapting to the over-crowded, competitive market by making more commercial, accessible, bigger-budget movies with stars--and are thus competing for smaller slices of the boxoffice pie with the other distribs in the same universe: Lionsgate, Yari Film Group, MGM, The Weinstein Co., and now, newcomers Summit and Overture.

Some fallout in the indie sector has already begun. Warner Bros. is paring back New Line Cinema and folding it as a label into the parent company; the co's new mandate is still to be delineated. Picturehouse and Warner Independent are likely to forge some kind of merger, yielding one specialty label where there once were two.

Industry observers speculate about the fate of real estate mogul-turned-filmmaking entrepreneur Bob Yari, who was perhaps cursed by two early hits (Crash and The Illusionist) and is now finding heavy sledding, and MGM and two of its key suppliers, Sidney Kimmel Entertainment, which will withdraw from the release pact at year's end, and has pared back on production, and Weinstein Co., which is still seeking some breakout hits.

In the meantime, Overture and Summit are jumping into choppier waters than they may have anticipated when they finalized their financing and business plans. (For more on this, see this week's column.)

Weekend Boxoffice: Horton Breaks a Record

Fox animated feature Dr. Seuss's Horton Hears a Who! opened better than any film so far in 2008, reports Variety:

Twentieth Century Fox's "Dr. Seuss' Horton Hears a Who!" enjoyed a who-licious bow of $45.1 million at the domestic box office, the biggest opening of the year and furthering Fox's successful foray into the animated and family marketplace. "Horton"--toplining the voices of Jim Carrey and Steve Carell and produced by Blue Sky Studios--becomes the fifth-best opening ever for a G-rated toon, a market otherwise owned by Disney and Pixar. It also is the fourth-best opening ever for March, after Warner Bros' "300" and Fox's own animated PG toons "Ice Age" and sequel "Ice Age: The Meltdown."

And Summit's martial-arts actioner Never Back Down, backed by a muscular ad campaign, clobbered Rogue's Doomsday, finally: Never Back Down grossed an estimated $8.6 million, landing in third place, while Doomsday grossed an estimated $4.7 million, landing in seventh, behind Lionsgate's Bank Job, which held well on strong reviews and word-of-mouth, falling only 17 %.

Weekend Boxoffice: Slim Pickings

It looks like yet another animated family film, Dr. Seuss's Horton Hears a Who! (which grabbed a 81% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes) will own the weekend. (Horton co-director Jimmy Hayward lists his top five animated faves.) And John Anderson's Variety review leads off with some Seuss verse:

A story of Horton, and people called Who -- but how many movies? It seems to be two! There's one that's quite Seussical, gentle and charming. The other stars Jim Carrey, brash and alarming! What auds will attend? Who has what it takes? Wee innocent children -- and moms with headaches!

Truth is, there's not much worth seeing. March is the dog days, when the best you can hope for is a smarter-than-average spring break picture like 21, Kevin Spacey and Robert Luketic's upcoming Vegas fantasy. Theater owners beg the studios to give them more pictures, and the indies complain that there's too much competition, but here's an open season, should anyone care to step in.

On the other hand, it doesn't make sense for two mid-market action thrillers without stars to chase after the exact same young male demo. (There's nothing aimed at women this weekend.) It looks like Rogue's Doomsday (which grabbed a 36% rotten ranking after it did not screen for critics) will win that unnecessary game of chicken against Summit's Never Back Down (22% Rotten). Here's Variety's weekend boxoffice report.

Fandango Top Five Ticket Sales (as of 3/14/08 9:00 a.m. PT)

Movie Fandango User Rating % Fandango Sales

Dr. Suess’ Horton Hears a Who! “Go” 64%

10,000 B.C. “Go” 8%

College Road Trip “Go” 3%

The Bank Job “Go” 2%

Doomsday “Go” 2%

Fandango Weekly Poll (as of 3/14/08 9:00 a.m. PT)

The futuristic virus thriller Doomsday opens this week. Of the following virus and/or post-apocalyptic action flicks, which is your favorite?
I Am Legend 40%

28 Weeks Later 19%

12 Monkeys 15%

The Road Warrior 13%

Escape from New York 9%

Other 4%

ShoWest: The $100 Million-Plus Honor Reel

ShoWest started off Tuesday with the annual Honor Reel of films that made over $100 million, 28 last year, starring Peter Parker, Harry Potter and Jack Sparrow, among others, with two from the Judd Apatow comedy factory, several big FX and comics flicks, musicals (Enchanted, Hairspray, and Alvin and the Chipmunks), and big animation titles like Ratatouille (which stuck out amid all the other stuff as a Quality Film) and The Simpsons. (Every one of the $100-million-plus club had some digital playdates as well.) There were seven $200-million-plus pics, and four that grossed over $300 million.

While these films may have grossed a lot, they didn't all return pots of money, because some, like Evan Almighty and Blades of Glory, were very expensive. Rush Hour 3 ended up making up for its lackluster b.o. on DVD. I was also struck by how many movies appealed to adults as well as kids. (One Sony exec explained that the current Vantage Point did as well as it did by playing to the boomer crowd.)

And there are a few stars left in the Hollywood firmament, it seems: Depp, Cage (with two biggies), Willis and Smith among them, and in the comedy world, Carrell and Sandler.

300 reminded me that we should expect a rash of imitators to turn up soon.

Bond 22's Quantum of Solace Is a Bad Title

What's in a movie title? Well, according to guest essayist Jack Lechner, a New York-based author, producer and music theater maven, a great deal. Inspired by what he considers to be a terrible title for Bond 22, Quantum of Solace, Lechner argues that bad titles can kill good movies. While I agree with Jack on just about everything he says in this piece--a bad title didn't help, for example, A Mighty Heart--I suspect that even a godawful title like this can't sink the Bond franchise. After all, Star Wars survived even Episode 1--The Phantom Menace.

QUANTUM OF CINDERELLA By Jack Lechner

It’s official: The next James Bond film will be called Quantum of Solace. This announcement has already caused much head-scratching throughout the world – or at least the part of the world that cares about James Bond, which is a significant fraction of same. Apparently, Quantum of Solace is the title of a short story by Bond creator Ian Fleming, and after 21 movies, the Bond producers have used every other Fleming title except for his non-fiction books Thrilling Cities and The Diamond Smugglers. Either of which, by the way, would be a better title for a James Bond movie than Quantum of Solace.

I used to work for the director Alan Parker, who once told me that “A good title is the title of a successful movie.” His point was that if the movie works, it carries the title along with it. Of course, he made this point while explaining why he wouldn’t change the title of his film Come See The Paradise, despite the fact that it had only a vague connection to the story. Did the title keep the movie from connecting with its audience? Sir Alan may still disagree, but I think it did.

What makes a title bad? It’s usually one of these factors:

1) It’s incomprehensible until you see the movie – but not intriguing enough to make you want to see it. Examples: A Stir Of Echoes, The Astronaut Farmer -- and, alas, Come See The Paradise. This strikes me as the trap for Quantum of Solace as well. Like most of the bad titles in this category, it aims for poetry, but settles for awkward prose.

2) It sends a misleading signal about tone or content. The classic example here is Cinderella Man. Back in 2005, there were all kinds of theories about why this textbook crowd-pleaser didn’t perform up to expectations. Was it too serious for a summer release? Perhaps the audience had no further appetite for boxing movies after seeing Million Dollar Baby? Or did Russell Crowe alienate America when he hurled a telephone at a concierge?

To my amazement, nobody mentioned the title. Maybe it’s because I have a young daughter, but I can’t be the only person for whom the title Cinderella Man evoked the image of Russell Crowe in a frilly pink dress with sparkly glass slippers. My take is that men thought it was a chick flick, while women preferred their Cinderellas in more traditional ballroom attire.

Of course, the producers and studio executives never thought to blame the title, because it had become invisible to them. The project was in development for years, and it was called Cinderella Man from the beginning. Everyone involved with it had long since forgotten that the title actually meant something to people who hadn’t seen the film -- that it had overtones, connotations, baggage. Even Humpty Dumpty’s mother thought his name sounded like music.

3) It's just boring. Which is why, despite great reviews and numerous Oscar nominations, Michael Clayton has stubbornly refused to cross the $50 million mark at the box office. Having seen and loved the film, I'm convinced it would have done considerably better with a title like The Price of Death, or even (with apologies to Bernard Malamud) The Fixer. The title Michael Clayton tells you nothing useful about the movie -- unlike other full-name titles like Annie Hall (Woody Allen makes his first movie about real people!) or Erin Brockovich (Julia Roberts plays an unconventional character!). All Michael Clayton tells you is that George Clooney is playing ... some guy. Some enticement.

4) It’s Ballistic: Ecks vs. Sever.

ShoWest: DreamWorks Animation Goes 3D

The future is 3D, declared DreamWorks animation czar Jeffrey Katzenberg on Tuesday before showing the first piece of 3D footage created by DreamWorks--a redo of an entire scene from the upcoming 2D movie Kung Fu Panda in RealD. (Everyone seems to like these cool RealD glasses better than the clunkier Dolby ones.)

The Theatre des Arts crowd at the Paris donned their 3D glasses and dug the intense action sequence. Then Katzenberg previewed a funny scene from the upcoming Monsters vs. Aliens, featuring a confrontation between the president, played by Stephen Colbert, and a just-landed alien. Here's the casting story.

It's all 3D all the time for DreamWorks Animation from now on, Katzenberg declared, exhorting the exhibs to upgrade to digital 3D. 2009 is the big year when some 10 to 12 digital 3D pics will hit screens--and there aren't enough of them yet--about 1000-- to handle a wide 3D release. UPDATE: Disney distribution and marketing chief Mark Zoradi on Wednesday predicts 4 to 5,000 3D screens by 2010. "In the next 24 months we'll reach a tipping point," he said. And exhibs are finally ready to step up and invest now that they see competitors doing better with Beowulf and Hannah Montana in 3D. Here's more on the impact of Hannah Montana on the biz.

Later in the day, Katzenberg showed Kung Fu Panda in all its CG 2D glory. The crowd ate it up. Katzenberg has this family formula down--it'll play for kids, young males, families, the works.

The pic boasts a lovable central character, the tubby panda (Jack Black) who adores kung fu and must channel his inner strength and purpose and listen to his master teacher (Dustin Hoffman) to become a great fighter and save the day. But the five kung fu heroes our young panda worships are not as well-developed as they might have been. No question this pic will score big this summer (June 6).

10,000 B.C. Wins Weekend Boxoffice

As expected, 10,000 B.C. handily won the weekend. Roland Emmerich yet again has pulled in crowds with cheesy accessible fun and awesome VFX. Whether it holds is another matter. I suspect that Roger Donaldson's delightful Brit heist thriller The Bank Job, starring an unexpectedly nuanced and sensitive Jason Statham (happily married and sporting an endearing bald spot) and an excellent supporting cast led by Saffron Burrows, will build good word. (It scored 76% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes.) But I wonder if Lionsgate should have opened it less wide. Some people may be staying away because they think it's just another Statham blam-blam movie. This one is more like Michael Caine's classic The Ipcress File or Matthew Vaughn's Layer Cake than Guy Ritchie's Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels.

Here's Variety's B.O. report:

Prehistoric populations were big if not quite epic this weekend, as Warner’s “10,000 BC” grossed a solid $35.7 million.

Though some had thought the Rolland Emmerich-helmed f/x-fest could come in over $40 million, pic ended up right around where studio insiders said they were targeting. If pic holds well, it could end up topping $100 million domestically and it’s expected to do very well overseas.

Average was $10,478 per play at 3,410 theaters

Nobody had thought “10,000 BC” would come close to “300’s” $71 million bow on the same weekend last year.

Also performing decently was Disney’s “College Road Trip,” which opened to $14 million, or $5,174 per location at 2,706 playdates. Gross was just a little off from that off Martin Lawrence’s last pic, “Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins,” which bowed to $16.2 million last month.

Mouse House is expecting a particularly strong hold for the family film as spring breaks start around the country this week.

Lionsgate’s actioner “Bank Job,” bowed at a modest $5.7 million, right around where the studio had expected. Jason Stathan starrer, which was a negative pickup for the indie studio, averaged $3,561 at 1,603 theaters.

Focus opened “Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day” at 535 locations, where the comedy averaged $4,750 and grossed a total of $2.5 million.

Friday Boxoffice Numbers

[Posted by Anthony D'Alessandro]
Helmer Roland Emmerich speared his third best opening day with 10,000 B.C. as the Warner Bros. pre-historic adventure rang up $12.5 million Friday from 3,410 theaters.

Pic's haul ranks behind such Emmerich first day highs as 2004's The Day After Tomorrow ($23.5 million) and 1996's Independence Day ($17.4 million).

Among opening days in March, 10,000 B.C. is the fifth highest, while Warner Bros.' R-rated 300 continues to hold the month's top records for opening day ($28.1 million), 3-day bow ($70.9 million) and overall grosser ($210.6 million).

Coming in second yesterday was Disney's G-rated Martin Lawrence and Raven-Symone topliner College Road Trip which picked up $3.5 million from 2,706 theaters. While pic's B.O. ranks below the $4.9 million first day take of Lawrence's February comedy Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins, Saturday and Sunday family matinees could fuel up Trip at the weekend B.O.

Friday moviegoers continued to aim for Sony's Vantage Point at 3,163 hardtops. The political thriller nabbed third place with $2.2 million, down 41%, for a 15-day cume of $46.4 million.

Last weekend's No. 1 film, New Line's Semi-Pro, fell to fourth place, grossing $1.8 million at 3,121 courts; a 66% drop. Pic's eight-day total of $20.7 million currently trails 25% behind Will Ferrell's previous R-rated laffer Old School which finaled at $75. million.

In its first day stateside, Lionsgates' Blighty caper The Bank Job stole fifth place with $1.7 million from 1,603 locales. The Jason Statham headliner bowed in the number one spot at the U.K. box office last weekend where it collected $1.9 million.

Among those specialty openers charting yesterday, Focus Features' Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day rang up $704,000 in 535 theaters.

Weekend Boxoffice, 10,000 B.C. Reviews

A movie like 10,000 B.C. gives critics a chance to go to town and have a grand old time. UPDATE: Here's a Guardian interview with director Roland Emmerich.