Thompson On Hollywood

Forgetting Sarah Marshall: Lunkhead Romance

Just look at the movie. One of my pet peeves is box-office prognosticating based solely on tracking the opening weekend numbers. I don't care how Forgetting Sarah Marshall opens April 18. I know, based on my own experience, that it's funny enough to do well at the boxoffice. If they laugh, they will come.

They did not laugh at Judd Apatow factory duds Walk Hard or Drillbit Taylor. And this relationship comedy, while told from the male POV--writer-actor Jason Segal loses the love of his life (Kristen Bell) and can't stop crying, both in and out of the nude--plays for both men and women.

At the Hollywood and Highland premiere last week, it was fun to see producer Apatow presiding over his merry band of miscreants--Segal, Seth Rogen, Jonah Hill, Paul Rudd, Christopher Mintz-Plasse (McLovin) and Brit newcomer Russell Brand, who steals the movie and was the after-party cock of the walk in his rock star finery and teased bouffant. Sure enough, Apatow admits, Sarah Marshall director Nicholas Stoller and Hill are cooking up a movie for Brand to star in.

The LAT has a rogue's gallery of boys in the buff. My all-time full-frontal fave? Ewan McGregor. No contest.

Weekend Boxoffice: Horton Holds, Perry Performs, Drillbit Dies

Dr. Seuss's Horton Hears a Who! landed atop the boxoffice charts again, while Tyler Perry's latest opened well and Judd Apatow's badly-reviewed Owen Wilson comedy Drillbit Taylor did not. That's two Apatow-produced disappointments now, after Walk Hard. But the next three---Forgetting Sarah Marshall, Pineapple Express and Step Brothers-- look strong.

Time's Richard Corliss profiles Perry while Richard Schickel divebombs Drillbit Taylor.

[Photo courtesy Time Magazine]

Judd Apatow Alert: Four Comedies Coming

We all know producer Judd Apatow has four movies coming up in 2008. But which ones will work at the boxoffice? By my guess, all of them. It's just a case of how high is high.

I forecast correctly that the musical biopic parody Walk Hard would fail. It was a smart comedy satire of narrow interest to a wide audience, and asked folks to spend entirely too much screen time with John C. Reilly, who is the original definition of a great actor who has to be cast in the right (co-starring) role.

Here's USA Today's interview with Apatow. And my column on Apatow before Knocked Up and Superbad opened last year.

Sight unseen, based on marketing materials and ShoWest reaction, I'm predicting the following:

BOFFO HOME RUN
Step Brothers R (dumb male comedy starring Will Ferrell and Reilly; trailer (below) is hilarious)

SMASH
Drillbit Taylor PG-13 (Owen Wilson star power, may have family appeal)UPDATE: Boy was I wrong! Maybe Apatow and Wilson work best in the R-rated universe; also this was a familiar old plot. Bad reviews and poor opening.
Pineapple Express R (stoner comedy)

DOUBLE
Forgetting Sarah Marshall R (relationship comedy, may have femme appeal)

Which Judd Apatow comedy do you most want to see?
	Drillbit Taylor
	Forgetting Sarah Marshall
	Step Brothers
	Pineapple Express
pollcode.com free polls

ShoWest: Summer Preview

Every year ShoWest screens an honor reel of movies that grossed over $100-million the year before. Which of the 2008 ShoWest promo pics will be on next year's reel?

Based on what I saw and reactions gleaned, here's my best guess:

Movie that could pass $300 million: the sequel The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian, which will likely improve on its predecessor with more action and more mature protagonists.

Movies that could go well past $200 million: sequels The Dark Knight, starring Christian Bale and Heath Ledger, Steven Spielberg's Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, starring Harrison Ford and Shia LeBeouf, Rob Cohen's China-shot Mummy 3: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor, starring Brendan Fraser, Jet Li and Michelle Yeoh, and Guillermo del Toro's epic-scale actioner Hellboy II: The Golden Army; plus non-sequels Wanted, starring Angelina Jolie and Morgan Freeman as assassins training rookie James McAvoy, the invulnerable Will Smith as a homeless hero in Hancock, Judd Apatow's dumb male comedy Step Brothers, starring Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly, Marvel's Iron Man, which boasts femme appeal via Robert Downey Jr. and co-star Gwenyth Paltrow, and animated family originals Kung Fu Panda (DreamWorks Animation) and Wall-E (Disney/Pixar).

Movies that could break $100 million: a remake of Marvel's The Incredible Hulk, starring Edward Norton as a thinking man's Bruce Banner; for the femme audience, a remake of the HBO classic Sex and the City, a remake of the boomer TV show Get Smart, starring Steve Carell and Ann Hathaway, Tina Fey and Amy Poehler's surrogate nightmare comedy Baby Mama, and a movie version of the Broadway musical Mamma Mia (also for musical fans); Judd Apatow factory comedies Forgetting Sarah Marshall and Pineapple Express; Ben Stiller's starry R-rated action comedy Tropic Thunder, starring Stiller, Downey, Jack Black and Steve Coogan; the frere Wachowski's adaptation of the anime classic Speed Racer, starring Emile Hirsch and Christina Ricci; and George Lucas's animated sequel Star Wars: The Clone Wars. (Am I the only one who feels a shock that the film is going out through Warners? Even though Lucasfilm controls and markets the movies and collects the lions' share of the take, I feel like all Star Wars movies are supposed to have the Fox fanfare in front of them.)

The Apatow Formula Revealed

Brit critic Ben Child has figured out the secret of Judd Apatow's success. On that basis, he figures, Forgetting Sarah Marshall supporting player Russell Brand will be Apatow's next likely star. For the moment, Apatow is producing another couples comedy from the Forgetting Sarah Marshall team of director Nick Stoller and writer-actor Jason Segal.