Thompson On Hollywood

Weekend Boxoffice: Iron Man vs. Speed Racer

Iron Man and Speed Racer will duke it out for the top spot this weekend as advance ticket sales for Indiana Jones 4, Narnia 2 and Sex and the City heat up. (Sex and the City's tracking is fascinating; its awareness and want-to-see are strong with women and off the charts terrible for men, especially those under 25: 3 % definite interest! Which makes this a two and a half quadrant movie targeted at women and gay men. Here's Peter Bart on the subject of chick flicks.)

The LAT analyzes Speed Racer's presumed boxoffice weakness: why does this movie have to be number one and be a blockbuster? Why can't it just open? Family movies tend to last longer in the marketplace. Just asking. It didn't land good reviews: 36% on the Tomatometer (Rotten). It looks like I like Speed Racer better than most, along with Richard Corliss, who says it's the future of movies. UPDATE: Some critics just didn't get the movie at all. It's for kids! Salon's Stephanie Zacharek writes:

"Andy and Larry Wachowski's "Speed Racer" is so bereft of intelligence, style and excitement that I can't figure out who in the world it's supposed to appeal to: baby boomers nostalgic for the old Japanamation cartoon on which it's based? Parents who want to cultivate ADD in their kids?"

Fantasy Moguls has its own take on on why Speed Racer may struggle this weekend. Steve Mason calls it the "death slot." The second weekend of the summer is where you don't want to be.

In 8 of the past 10 years, the movie that signaled the start of Hollywood’s most lucrative season went on to win the next weekend. This weekend on the release schedule has included full-on disasters, like 2006’s Poseidon, medieval action film A Knight’s Tale in 2001and 2000’s horrific laugher Battlefield Earth.

Speed Racer will not be a disaster. This may be remembered as a disappointment domestically, but, especially with the presence of Asian music superstar Rain, the film will perform well overseas, particularly in Japan, South Korea and China where he has a huge following.

Fandango Five – Ticket Sales (as of 5/9/08 10:00 a.m. PT)

Movie Fandango User Rating % Fandango Sales

Iron Man “Must Go” 33%

Speed Racer “Go” 32%

Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull “Must Go” 11%

The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian “Go” 7%

Sex and the City “Go” 6%

Fandango Weekly Poll (as of 5/9/08 10:00 a.m. PT)

Iron Man's now playing everywhere. Among previous comic book/graphic novel movies listed below, which one is your favorite?

Batman Begins 29%

Spider-Man 22%

X-Men 18%

300 17%

Superman Returns 8%

Sin City 6%

Summer Begins: Iron Man, Speed Racer, and Superheroes

Let the summer games begin. The LAT's Ken Turan takes on summer blockbuster syndrome, while The Huffington Post addresses summer superheroes.

The summer starts off with Thursday night's opening of Iron Man, which earned 95% fresh reviews on Rotten Tomatoes so far. The NYT's A.O. Scott calls it "an unusually good superhero picture." The New Yorker's David Denby calls it a "whooshing junk pile." Everybody likes Robert Downey. (Variety reviews the Iron Man viedeogame.)

The movie is expected to open well, between $65 and $100 million, depending on how seriously you take the tracking that shows young women are not interested in seeing the picture--only 19% first choice-- which makes it a "three quadrant" movie for starters. The biggest blockbusters, like Narnia, wind up pulling everybody. Young men under 25 have 95% awareness of Iron Man, 65% definite interest and 35% first choice. Women over 25 are more interested in Downey and Gwenyth Paltrow; they will spread the word that Downey is fun and Paltrow actually has a decent role. So the picture could hold well.

Luckily for Paramount, next weekend's Speed Racer (well-reviewed by Variety) is not pulling strong advance tracking numbers, so that might give Iron Man some room to breathe before they open Indiana Jones on May 22. Here's the weekend forecast from Fantasy Moguls and Variety.

I wasn't sure what to expect from Speed Racer from the advance marketing, so I was pleasantly surprised. First, it's really a little kids' movie, more like Pixar's Cars than anything else. Second, the Wachowskis have a solid story with a strong moral theme to hang their gorgeous stylized pyrotechnics on. I don't particularly care about car racing, but I cared about the characters and the family led by John Goodman and Susan Sarandon at the film's center. Speed Racer Emile Hirsch and gal pal Christina Ricci are fine (utterly sexless couples are a theme of the summer so far). And I was dazzled by the Wachowski's eye candy. You can read the movie as a parable of the filmmakers' experience in Hollywood--they're rooting for creative innocence and pure instinct over the corrupt vagaries of the marketplace.

The other movie opening this weekend that roots for innocent indie filmmaking over the compromises of the star system is Son of Rambow, a hit at Sundance 2007 that was fought over; Paramount Vantage grabbed it for $8 million. But the film was delayed by various rights legalities (having to do with Carolco's Rambo) and finally arrives late on the scene with its momentum lost. (It is a hit in the U.K.) And it follows in the wake of the similar Be Kind Rewind, which died at the boxoffice.

In this delightful and expertly executed 80s-set British comedy from Hammer and Tongs (The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy), two unlikely schoolmate-collaborators pool their resources to shoot a short and suddenly find themselves hugely popular at school. One soaks up the attention, the other doesn't. Here's Variety's Speed Racer Blockbuster Page, with review, clips, trailers and a cool feature on VFX whiz John Gaeta.

The movie has played 27 fests since its Sundance debut, and Vantage hopes that means it has built up some good WOM. It opens in NY and LA this weekend, moves to 30-35 screens in the top 12 markets May 9, and expands to 70-80 screens in the top 25 markets on May 16. By the 23rd of May it should be on 200 screens in the top 60-65 markets. UPDATE: Rotten Tomatoes reviews so far are at 77%; I'm surprised they aren't even better. The genre seems to confuse people. That is, it's a smart movie set in the 80s about kids that's for adults.

Summer Movies: Will Indy 4 and Speed Racer be Prescription for Recession Blues?

Hollywood has historically been recession-proof. According to Time, summer popcorn movies like Indy 4 and Speed Racer will be just what America needs as it slides into recession. So why am I, the most ardent moviegoer, making more dates with friends to watch DVDs at various well-appointed home viewing rooms? It's partly because the kid I used to go to weekend movies with is in college. It is also the time of year. I have already seen most of the well-reviewed movies in release. I will be as hungry as everyone else for the big summer pics when they finally arrive, and will see them in theaters.

ShoWest: Summer Preview

Every year ShoWest screens an honor reel of movies that grossed over $100-million the year before. Which of the 2008 ShoWest promo pics will be on next year's reel?

Based on what I saw and reactions gleaned, here's my best guess:

Movie that could pass $300 million: the sequel The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian, which will likely improve on its predecessor with more action and more mature protagonists.

Movies that could go well past $200 million: sequels The Dark Knight, starring Christian Bale and Heath Ledger, Steven Spielberg's Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, starring Harrison Ford and Shia LeBeouf, Rob Cohen's China-shot Mummy 3: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor, starring Brendan Fraser, Jet Li and Michelle Yeoh, and Guillermo del Toro's epic-scale actioner Hellboy II: The Golden Army; plus non-sequels Wanted, starring Angelina Jolie and Morgan Freeman as assassins training rookie James McAvoy, the invulnerable Will Smith as a homeless hero in Hancock, Judd Apatow's dumb male comedy Step Brothers, starring Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly, Marvel's Iron Man, which boasts femme appeal via Robert Downey Jr. and co-star Gwenyth Paltrow, and animated family originals Kung Fu Panda (DreamWorks Animation) and Wall-E (Disney/Pixar).

Movies that could break $100 million: a remake of Marvel's The Incredible Hulk, starring Edward Norton as a thinking man's Bruce Banner; for the femme audience, a remake of the HBO classic Sex and the City, a remake of the boomer TV show Get Smart, starring Steve Carell and Ann Hathaway, Tina Fey and Amy Poehler's surrogate nightmare comedy Baby Mama, and a movie version of the Broadway musical Mamma Mia (also for musical fans); Judd Apatow factory comedies Forgetting Sarah Marshall and Pineapple Express; Ben Stiller's starry R-rated action comedy Tropic Thunder, starring Stiller, Downey, Jack Black and Steve Coogan; the frere Wachowski's adaptation of the anime classic Speed Racer, starring Emile Hirsch and Christina Ricci; and George Lucas's animated sequel Star Wars: The Clone Wars. (Am I the only one who feels a shock that the film is going out through Warners? Even though Lucasfilm controls and markets the movies and collects the lions' share of the take, I feel like all Star Wars movies are supposed to have the Fox fanfare in front of them.)

Wachowski Bros. Breaking Barriers with Speed Racer

[Posted by Peter Debruge]
I’ll be subbing in while Anne Thompson is on vacation this week, doing my best to keep the updates frequent and lively. Comments are welcome and will be read, but let's try to keep things civil (that means you, Don Murphy).

My friend Steve at Collider.com has been sitting on a big Speed Racer scoop. True to form, he took full advantage of the In the Valley of Elah press conference to get Susan Sarandon (who says of Speed, “all I do is make pancakes in the movie”) to confirm a juicy rumor about the Wachowskis’ latest game-changing innovation. According to Sarandon:

They’re doing something where they’re layering film so that the front and the back are in focus like a cartoon and they’re also doing two dimensional and three dimensional stuff and mixing and everything is very, very saturated with some new kind of film, so they actually have to treat the actors in some way so we can hold our own with the background. So it’s every color that wasn’t in The Matrix is seriously in this film.

Now, I know Speed Racer is the toon that introduced a generation of Americans to Japanese anime, but until now, I hadn’t understood why the Wachowskis would pick this as their next project, fearing that their G-rated live-action stab would turn out like another Herbie movie. Sounds like they’ve got it all figured out. (Who knew it would take 40 years for HD technology to catch up with primitive animation techniques?)

Ricci Talks Speed Racer

The studios know what they're doing. No sooner does Warner Bros. announce that Christina Ricci is starring in the Wachowski's Speed Racer than they slap up a YouTube interview: