Thompson On Hollywood

Hollywood Money Worries

Money makes the world go round and right now Hollywood is all about following the money.

Once upon a time the studios financed their own movies, and gradually as production and marketing costs kept rising, began looking for partners and financing to help them reduce risk.

While Paramount spun the news yesterday that they walked away from a $450-million Deutsche Bank slate financing deal, which would have funded 25 % of each film's budget capped at $30 million per picture, the chill was felt around Hollywood.

What impact would this have on the elusive Ryan Kavanaugh of Relativity Media, who has also gotten funding from Deutsche Bank, which was withdrawing from the film business? Kavanaugh co-finances big-budget movies all over town, and also has his own deal to produce movies for MGM release.

No one should be surprised that banks are starting to demand tougher terms on these deals, which tended to favor the studios. Bigger forces are at work: money is drying up. And debt is more expensive. "At the end of the day, someone has to pay," said one company chief.

The credit crunch will only put more pressure on studios like Paramount to be more risk averse (like morphing Vantage into a more genre-oriented label). "You'll see more big budget sequels and remakes," says one observer.

Meanwhile the Weinsteins are shuffling their deck chairs to stay ahead of the financial curve: they just announced a showy Showtime pay-TV deal for which they must deliver 95 movies. The question is, did they pay upfront to get that deal? Yes, they put down some sort of guarantee that they would deliver all the pics, but nothing anywhere near the fantastic $100-million figure that has been reported. I'm hearing it was way less than half that figure. The Weinsteins needed the Showtime deal in order to seal the additional financing they need. Locking in a pay deal was essential to going forward. When they extricate themselves from MGM distribution at year's end, they might really be in business.

Summer Movies: Universal Kicks Ass at Boxoffice

Universal has scored two $100-million hits so far this summer: The Incredible Hulk ($129 million) and Wanted ($112 million), and this weekend Hellboy II: The Golden Army opened at number one with an estimated $35.9 million. And the pics scored strong reviews as well: Guillermo del Toro's Hellboy sequel earned 88% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, and looks likely to also score more than $100 million, says Fantasy Moguls. (The Hulk came in at more modest 68, and Wanted at 72.)

Next weekend, while The Dark Knight will score the number one slot, Abba musical Mamma Mia! is expected to open well. And in August, there's still The Mummy 3: The Tomb of the Golden Emperor, which should easily pass the $100-million mark.

According to ace marketer-turned-co-chief of the studio Marc Shmuger, each of these pics has a distinct look, feel and audience appeal. Not one of these movies is like any other movie in the current marketplace. "They all know exactly what they are," he says, "and who they're for."

This helps to cut through the other lookalike pictures and pop the movies out. Could anyone not pay attention to the crazy green giant Hulk, Jolie and those curving bullets in Wanted, or bright red muscle-bound Hellboy, with his cut-off horns? And there's certainly nothing else in the market like Mamma Mia!, which opened well overseas this weekend.

Where The Wild Things Aren't

When you think about it, the first inkling that director Spike Jonze wanted to use animatronic puppets for his adaptation of Maurice Sendak's beloved children's book Where the Wild Things Are was a warning sign. First of all, just look at Jonze's movies and sensibility and you know he's a maverick indie spirit, an artist. It's no shock that he ran into trouble making a mainstream studio movie with family appeal--especially at straight-arrow studio Warner Bros., which is better at making tentpoles than anything else. Which may be why they gave the guy $80 million??!!

While I applaud Warner chief Alan Horn for giving the director some time to figure things out, I agree with Patrick Goldstein that this may not have been an ideal match (much like the Wachowskis and Speed Racer) between director and subject. As exciting as it is to have Dave Eggers write the screenplay, again, Eggers + Jonze does not = family movie for all audiences.

That's what Warner Independent was supposed to be for, guys. (For a lot less money.)

Comics in Hollywood: DC vs. Marvel

A key story of summer 2008 is the rise of Marvel Entertainment. Now in charge of its own destiny with Iron Man and Incredible Hulk, the company is actively developing its own characters for movies down the line. And execs are willing to defend Marvel's long-term interests, whether that means negotiating tough with Jon Favreau on directing the Iron Man sequel or telling Edward Norton that some of his favorite scenes in Incredible Hulk will have to wait for the DVD.

At the Hellboy II premiere, Favreau told me he that while he was planning to do Iron Man 2 and wanted to do The Avengers as well, Marvel was unlikely to wait for him to do both. The "official" announcement will likely wait for Comic-Con.

Now execs at DC Comics are taking note. Long more passive in their relationship to their films, there are signs of change, reports David Cohen. Still up in the air are such DC projects as the next Batman and Superman movies (how about those Louis Leterrier rumors?) and Justice League, not to mention the long-in-the-works Wonder Woman.

Customers and Employees First: Not Stockholders

This Time story about two retailers, John Mackey and Kip Tindell, who don't place much stock in worrying about their shareholders, made me wonder if their insight might not apply to the movie biz as well.

Here's a snippet:

"Simultaneously we hit upon the philosophy that I think will be the dominant philosophy in business in the 21st century," Mackey says. "It's this principle that the purpose of business is not primarily to maximize shareholder value." That's a little like saying the purpose of religion isn't to achieve salvation. The idea that corporations exist to please their owners, the shareholders, was supreme during the booming 1990s. It had its roots in scholarly arguments that striving to satisfy multiple constituencies--employees, customers, the community--is a recipe for underperformance.

In these trying economic times, as the entertainment behemoths rejigger their game plans to promote content, not synergy, and try to adapt to the digital era, is playing up to Wall Street really the best way to go? (Some would argue that they don't have much choice.)

For example, Time Warner's recent big moves-- spinning off its cable system, slashing New Line Cinema and shuttering Warner Independent and Picturehouse---were made in part to appease pressure from large stockholders like Carl Icahn and Wall Street analysts. But were they the best moves for Time Warner in the long run? Richard Parsons, chairman of the Time Warner board, used to stand up to Wall Street in the interest of the longer-term needs of the company. And lost the CEO job for it.

DreamWorks Deals Are Fluid

As DreamWorks continues to seek financing for its planned reincarnation as a standalone independent company, two scenarios for the company’s future are emerging. Here's my Variety story.

Word is, DreamWorks is trying to raise $1 billion in equity and another $1 billion in debt so they can produce eight pictures a year. That would give Stacey Snider a bigger slate. And Dreamworks could allocate pictures to more than one studio, likely Paramount and Universal, so there'd be no nasty custody battle over the pics that were developed at Paramount.

What will happen, for example, to The 39 Clues, the new book DreamWorks just acquired, possibly for Spielberg to direct?

After Viacom bought DreamWorks SKG in early 2006 for $1.6 billion, Paramount and DreamWorks squabbled over credit for such hits as Dreamgirls, Norbit and Transformers. A sequel to the Michael Bay film is currently shooting, scheduled for release in summer 2009.

Raising more money would also mean that DreamWorks would not be solely involved with Indian company Reliance, whose topper, Anil Ambani (son of the industrialist on whom the Bollywood hit Guru was based), has expressed a desire for hands-on involvement with his Hollywood interests. That $500-600 million deal has not been closed. Some wonder if wily negotiator David Geffen has something else up his sleeve.

“Now India is owning DreamWorks?” asks one skeptical agency head, who questioned the idea that Spielberg would ever be willing to discuss his work with a Hollywood outsider.

Burned Back to the Future Frame Retrieved from Universal Fire

Someone walking on the Universal lot picked up a piece of flotsam and it turned out to be a burnt, charred but recognizable frame from Back to The Future--one of the prints lost in the recent Universal Fire.

Wanted Leads Off LAFF

The LA Film Fest opened with the premiere Thursday night of Universal's Wanted, followed by a Westwood block party. Spirits were high, because the smart director's showcase played.

Wanted is a stylish R-rated, violent adaptation of the comic books by Mark Millar and J. G. Jones. Producer Marc Platt matched up the comics with a series of screenwriters (Michael Brandt & Derek Haas and Chris Morgan) and director Timur Bekmambetov, the established Russian auteur of the stylized, over-the-top horror thriller Nightwatch and its Daywatch sequel, huge hits. Bekmambetov doesn't just do action, he said last night, smiling slyly. He also released a recent hit romantic comedy.

Bekmambetov's WMA agent Mike Simpson was over the moon because this is the kind of director Hollywood studios fantastize about--a Tim Burton with visual flair who can do action. Bekmambetov could do a Mission: Impossible or Bourne movie (that's Universal) if he wanted to. It was Universal that had the guts to put him on a $100-million actioner (Universal's official budget is $80 million)--and lured reliable stars Angelina Jolie and Morgan Freeman to support James McAvoy. The ads sell Jolie, who's terrific, but McAvoy carries his third American-accented picture--sans dialogue coach. He gives the movie a believable center. And yes, these people are playing actual characters. The movie breathes.

And it delivers action on a Bourne or Matrix level.

Suspension of disbelief is required. But the direction is so controlled, precise, detailed and inventive that you go for the ride. Bekmambetov has another plus: his own visual effects house in Russia, like Peter Jackson does in Wellywood. The f/x by Bazelevs are superb. Jolie and McAvoy skip along elevated subways, do metal-bending aerial car stunts, and boast special skills that enable them to alter the laws of gravity. SPOILER ALERT: Just when I was wondering when they'd stop working so hard and get sexy, the movie delivers a major kiss. And there's a stunning train derailment off a mountain abyss.

Assuming Wanted plays widely when it opens June 27 (a lot of arguments Thursday night were about whether it was a two-or-four-quadrant movie), McAvoy is signed up for two sequels. But, he predicts, "There won't be more than one. I don't want to do action movies." Bekmambetov was mum about whether he would return. (They will likely have to pay him.) He's setting up something called Saga, I hear. (Is it a movie version of the videogame?)

Here's Variety's review.

Universal could have a big summer. Marvel's remake of The Incredible Hulk dropped dramatically on its second weekend, but should be steady as they go. Next up is Guillermo del Toro's $100-million sequel, Hellboy II: The Golden Army, which closes the LA Film Fest. The movie musical Mamma Mia! has global pull with women thanks to its long-touring theater show. And Rob Cohen's $170-million (official studio budget is $150 million) reinvention of the Mummy franchise, The Tomb of the Dragon Emperor, shot in China with Brendan Fraser, Jet Li, Michelle Yeoh and an army of Terra Cotta warriors, opens in August. A test screening this week yielded a positive AICN posting.

What these movies have in common--and this will be an interesting test of what the box office will bear--is that "they all know exactly what they are," says Universal co-chairman Marc Shmuger, "and who they're for."

Summer Boxoffice: Perfect Storm

Several summer trends are good for the movie biz.

Ticket inflation means b.o. grosses are up. (Admissions are down.) The high price of gas is keeping folks closer to home: that's good for cineplexes. School is finally out for summer, which will boost midweek ticket sales. Theaters are charging more for concessions like popcorn (corn prices are up), and they're cleaning up on pre-show digital advertising.

Overseas, the dollar is weak. While it's a bitch to shoot a movie outside the U.S., because it costs more, on the other hand, it boosts overseas revenue.

The other side of that coin: when the dollar eventually gets stronger, the studios won't be able to count on that extra boost.

DreamWorks Looks to India, GE Loses Value

DreamWorks is nearing a financing deal with deep-pocketed Indian company Reliance, which has been looking to get into bed with Hollywood. Hollywood had expected Universal to be DreamWorks' likely future studio home, where partner Steven Spielberg has kept offices for decades.

On June 2, Peter Bart reported on his blog that DreamWorks was looking to leave Paramount and raise financing. Patrick Frater reports on Reliance and the sixth richest man in the world, Anil Ambani. Here are the LA Times and The Wall Street Journal.

The question is, who is going to be the future owner of Universal? GE's low stock price leaves the stability of Universal, which is well-run by Ron Meyer, Marc Shmuger and David Linde, in question. The studio is expecting a strong summer (led by Mummy 3, Hellboy 2 and Wanted). But that's irrelevant to Wall Street; analysts are rumbling that GE has lost so much value that the multi-conglomerate should shed some assets. Universal is the appendage that sticks out and looks like it doesn't belong with the electronic giant's other core businesses. It could be tough for Jeffrey Immelt to resist the tide of stockholders and investors who want the stock to surge again.

Immelt's the guy who lost DreamWorks in the first place by dragging his feet when Meyer could have made a deal. David Geffen then hastily took the deal to Paramount. DreamWorks was an excellent fit with Universal, which also lost Stacey Snider, then chairman of the studio under Meyer, when she followed Spielberg to Paramount. She's expected to be made a DreamWorks partner.

UPDATE: Some think that DreamWorks wants to buy Universal. But if Geffen wants to leave the business, why would he buy a major studio? Peter Bart weighs in.

Paramount Hits Overseas $1 Billion Mark

Paramount sent out a press release today (it's on the jump) proclaiming their billion dollar international gross at the the b.o., after only six months, which is a studio speed record.

But Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull was a Lucasfilm production; Iron Man was Marvel; and Kung Fu Panda was DreamWorks Animation. Paramount did a great job distributing and marketing these pics, but did not make them. They will share a sliver of the rewards.

And while Nickelodeon's The Spiderwick Chronicles, Cloverfield and No Country for Old Men generated some modest returns overseas, most of the Brad Grey management team's other biggest hits have come from the DreamWorks side of the ledger--Michael Bay's Transformers and its follow-up, currently filming, are co-productions. And Mike Myers' Love Guru is not likely to be a huge overseas performer.

What happens when Spielberg and Geffen raise their big bucks (I'm hearing they're courting global funds as we speak) and split? Then it will be up to John Lesher and Brad Weston to soldier on.

Incredible Hulk Will Play

Universal threw an Incredible Hulk premiere Sunday on the lot (which a week later, still had a tinge of smoke in the air). After all the grief and belly-aching about problems behind-the-scenes, Transporter director Louis Leterrier's movie played great at the Amphitheatre, and got thumbs up not only from me, but from 18-year-old Nora and Variety editor-in-chief Peter Bart. (Here's Variety's Incredible Hulk Movie Page.)

Edward Norton (who does not take a screenwriting credit) manages to make his tortured scientist-on-the-run sympathetic, not just as a man in love with fellow-scientist Liv Tyler, but as the raging-green Hulk, who seems to have learned a few things this time around from Peter Jackson's King Kong. Hulk (animated by Rhythm & Hues) does the chest-pounding dance on a rainy mountain crag routine--as his soaked lady-love looks on appreciatively, the only person who can reduce his heart-rate--and releases his rage in a satisfying lion-like roar. SPOILER ALERT: He also does gratifying big-scale battle with another gamma-tainted uber-being, The Abomination, played in human form by Tim Roth. Bill Hurt chews up the scenery as the villain of the piece. This time, they got it right.

The Incredible Hulk reveals the hazards of taking your movie to Comic-Con--God Forbid your presentation doesn't go over with fans. Bad Internet buzz killed dogged the first Hulk and threatened this one, too. One producer of Michael Bay's Transformers 2, which is currently filming in Pennsylvania, admitted that he'd just as soon not take anything to the July comic-book convention in San Diego until they have something really fab to show.

Here's the trailer:

Here's Todd McCarthy's review of Ang Lee's 2003 Hulk. He sees the 2008 incarnation on Tuesday; we'll post his Thursday print review on Wednesday night.

Finally, though, ultimate fanboy Harry Knowles' enthusiastic response and advance tracking indicates that Marvel (which made Iron Man, too, which has already grossed $289 million) will score another big opener this weekend: The Incredible Hulk is expected to gross in the same range as the last Hulk and last weekend's Kung Fu Panda: $60 million or so. The tracking is strong with men, as you'd think, and weak with women, who might build on word-of-mouth, because of the Norton/Tyler love story.

As the movie was unspooling, though, I was thinking, "wonder how they'll set up the sequel?" and, "when is Robert Downey, Jr. going to show?" Both of those things do make possible Marvel's planned Avengers movie, which could combine the likes of Giant Man, Thor, Captain America, Hulk, Wolverine and Iron Man, to name a few likely suspects we discussed with Kevin Smith on the way out. He responded to my query about Marvel setting up Avengers with, "you have to be retarded not to think that!"

UPDATE: Here's Cinematical on the reveal of Tony Stark's cameo, which is at the very end of the movie. And Film School Rejects has a Hulk Guide.

Universal Inventories Fire Damage

Last week I had lunch at the Universal commissary and walked across the lot to check out the scene of the fire that ravaged several blocks of the Universal backlot, destroying a print vault, last Sunday. As crews cleaned up the rubble, a security guard whisked me away--after I had grabbed a few shots.

Here are reports on the losses for the potentially devastating museums and rep houses around the country. Point is, Universal is relatively responsive to the needs of archivists around the country. It's not a hugely profitable business for the studio. But they have been in the habit of taking good care of their prints and negatives (which were also threatened during this fire) and history. The question is whether the studio will in fact replace the destroyed prints, which is expensive. A thorough inventory is under way.

MGM Struggles to Roar Again

The NYT lays out the stakes for MGM's future as a movie studio under CEO Harry Sloan, who recently bought in ex-Universal exec Mary Parent to corral some studio-style tentpoles. But some of MGM's owners, a consortium of companies including Sony, resist using MGM's funds to actually invest in movie production. I'm sorry: isn't that what studios are supposed to do? make educated judgments about backing solid commercial movies, produce them and release them?

Here's the end of the NYT story:

Time is of the essence. Mr. Sloan’s and Ms. Parent’s talk of possibly dipping into MGM’s cash coffers to have movies launched drew a sharp response from one member of the studio’s board who requested anonymity to avoid friction with other directors and managers. “We are not going to jeopardize or compromise the financial health of this company based on funding negative costs of films,” the board member said.

While Mr. Sloan says he’s prepared to use MGM’s cash, what he won’t do, he says, is ask existing investors to double down.

“I think it’s a character of private equity that the last thing they’d want to do is put themselves in the situation where they said, ‘We didn’t capitalize the company optimally,’ ” he says. “So I kind of see it as my job to take the deck that I was dealt, which is a lot of leverage, and make it work. I think I can make this work.”

As one MGM supplier wrote me today, "Paddy Chayefsky couldn't do it better."

[Photo courtesy NYT]

Things Universal Lost in the Fire

A memo went out Monday from Paul Ginsburg, Vice President NBC Universal Distribution, to Universal customers who were expecting delivery of prints from the studio:

It is with great sadness that I must inform you that yesterdays fire destroyed nearly 100% of the archive prints kept here on the lot. Due to this we will be unable to honor any film bookings of prints that were set to ship from here. Over the next few weeks and months we will be able to try and piece together what material we do have and if any prints exist elsewhere. For the time being please check your rental confirmations and look under shipping instructions. If the print was set to ship from the studio then you date is now canceled. If the shipping instructions say ship from Deluxe then those dates are still good.

L.A.'s American Cinematheque, for example, was able to retrieve several prints for its upcoming Aero Theatre booking this weekend from a Universal holding depot that was not affected by the fire. The Cinematheque will be able to get most of its upcoming scheduled prints from Deluxe. But Universal could not supply the 35 mm release print for a July booking of Weird Science, said director Barbara Smith, who had to cancel the showing.

While word from the lot is that no archival source material was damaged, and everything that was lost is replaceable, going forward the studio will have to do inventory on what was lost and what they will need to replace--and how--and at what cost, which could be considerable. There are complex questions of negatives, internegatives, interpositives and archival matrices, to use some arcane language of folks who know something about these things.

Femme Comedies: From Sex and the City to He's Just Not That Into You

In the wake of the Sex and the City boxoffice juggernaut, a lot of people are going to be speculating about which upcoming chick flicks are going to ride a new wave of interest in women's pics.

Truth is, most romantic comedies are not Big Event pics like Sex and the City--which is an escapist sexy entertaining movie that celebrates what it is to be a woman. How often does that come our way?

In fact, the movie version of the HBO series (which still draws decent numbers in reruns, years later) serves as an unwelcome reminder of how little the formula pablum served up by the studios satisfies the demanding femme demo. In other words, Sex and the City got made because it was a hit HBO show, not because it fit into any of the usual Hollywood notions of what women want. And thus it is an anomaly.

Which is not to say that I'm bitching about the trailer below, for He's Just Not That Into You, which at least boasts a strong ensemble cast led by Jennifer Anniston, Ben Affleck, Drew Barrymore and Scarlett Johansson. So you tell me: will this one be boffo at the b.o.?

Universal Back Lot on Fire!

More than two hundred firefighters battled a raging blaze on soundstages at the Universal Studios back lot Sunday morning. UPDATE: It wasn't extinguished until 10 PM Sunday night.

Look at this video.

Helicopters dropped water on several blocks of burning structures, including a King Kong exhibit, which was destroyed. According to one fire official, the cause of the fire is unknown. UPDATE: At a news conference, Universal studio chief Ron Meyer said he had not heard about any bomb threat. He added that the Universal Park would open at noon Sunday. But tram tours would skirt King Kong. UPDATE: The park remained closed and was expected to open at 10 AM Monday.

Here's MSNBC. "It's an aggressive defensive attack," Capt. Frank Reynoso of the L.A. County Fire Dept. told MSNBC's Alex Witt early Sunday morning. The fire started in the facade area of the New England and New York back lots, which are constructed of heavy timber, he said. "That's what initially got the fire going as quickly as it did. There are cause investigators on scene at this time." He confirmed there were explosions. "I believe there were propane tanks in the back lot area that were causing those explosions. It is not confirmed if those propane tanks caused the fire. Hopefully it will not spread any further."

It's not the first time Universal has been hit by fires; a number of buildings on the Universal lot were destroyed by fire in 1990. Parts of the Universal tour were burned in a 1967 fire. Earlier this year, a March brush fire threatened the studio but was extinguished before it reached the lot.

Sunday night's MTV Movie Awards proceeded as planned.

UPDATE: At this time, injuries to nine firefighters and a sheriff's deputy have been reported. The LAT reports on the sets, including Back to the Future, that were destroyed.

Warners Is Clueless About Specialty FIlms

I agree with everything the LAT's Patrick Goldstein writes here. It's a shame that the corporate culture at Warners didn't understand that by giving someone like Mark Gill or Bob Berney true autonomy, they might succeed. They couldn't grasp that concept. And that's why they got out. I will be curious to see what ex-Picturehouse exec Bob Berney puts together.

[Bob Berney and Film Independent's Dawn Hudson at the Indie Spirit Awards]

Warner Bros. Shuts Down Picturehouse and WIP

Warner Bros. does not care about the specialty business and has no time for it, basically. The Draconian studio is shutting down not one specialty arm but two, both Warner Independent Pictures and Picturehouse, with the notion that New Line Cinema can handle whatever specialty needs the studio has. New Line chief Toby Emmerich will be given something to do going forward. More updates as I have them. Here's Variety.

UPDATE: Picturehouse prexy Bob Berney, who learned late yesterday that Warners would be shuttering both specialty arms, is taking his team to Cannes as planned, and will release all three of his upcoming films, including Mongol, Kitt Kittredge: An American Girl and The Women, which opens in September. Then Picturehouse will call it quits. This gives his 43 employees some time to look for work. Berney will use his time in Cannes to look for investors, partners, and check out the pics on view there. He will resurface.

WIP's Polly Cohen, meanwhile, whose 31 staffers are also being cut by parent Warners, is rumored to be heading away from is likely to stay at the studio with a production deal. Warners basically dropped her into the deep end without a boat or a paddle. They don't get the specialty business, never did, never will.

Alan Horn and Barry Meyer were the last studio execs to mount a specialty label, and gave the reins of the specialty arm to Jeff Robinov, a capable production exec who clashed with Mark Gill, even when he was successful. Clearly, Gill was not able to function well within the WB bureaucracy. But getting autonomy is often a factor in whether these divisions sink or swim. They need to be able to ride the wave of the swiftly changing indie marketplace, and it takes years for any exec to learn how to do that.

Fox, Universal, Disney and Sony have all been in this market for a long time. They understand how to function with their specialty arms. Paramount and Warners have never been entirely comfortable with it. As successful as John Lesher was at choosing good movies, is Vantage making money? Warners may have realized that at best the specialty world is a breakeven business, and that what they know how to do is to make branded global tentpole entertainment.

Indiewire has reactions. The press release is on the jump:

[Photo courtesy IndieWire]

Iron Man: Downey and Favreau Rock

I managed to convince Paramount to show me Iron Man earlier this week, and grabbed director Jon Favreau for a phone interview from the European leg of his round-the-world press tour, from Paris to Rome to the London Premiere. Here's my Iron Man column, which even explains why Samuel Jackson and Hilary Swank aren't in the movie.

The movie rocks, in case you were wondering. It's light-on-its-feet, nimbly blending comedy, action, and VFX. Robert Downey, Jr. as a 60s-style playboy weapons mogul and anti-superhero and Gwenyth Paltrow as his updated Miss Moneypenny have real chemistry. And yes, Marvel and the Iron Man team have got themselves a franchise. Fantasy Moguls Steve Mason has upped his prediction of how the movie will open on May 2 from $60 million to $100 million, the kind of b.o. forecasting that is giving Paramount execs heartburn.

Here's the first of Variety.com's ongoing look at summer blockbusters. And here are Todd McCarthy's Iron Man reviews for Variety and Reelz:

Paramount Ends Showtime Deal To Start New Pay Channel

This a strange and significant story. It was inevitable that a studio would sever its pay-TV ties and start its own movie channel with a deep library and downloads, but I didn't think it would happen this soon and in this way. It's the wave of the future, and will accelerate the pace of change. So far the studios have been talking behind closed doors about how to take charge of their own delivery windows free from the impediments of their Pay-TV deals with HBO, Starz and Showtime. But not one had been willing to walk away from millions of dollars.

Now Viacom chief Sumner Redstone has done it--but at the expense of one of his own units, CBS, which owns Showtime. When Paramount and partners MGM and Lionsgate all withdraw from Showtime, it leaves open the question of what movies the channel will show. Variety's Dade Hayes explains. Here's Reuters. And the NYT. And PaidContent. And the LAT.

Apparently Redstone and Viacom prexy and CEO Philippe Dauman realized they had an opportunity, because Paramount and Paramount Vantage's Showtime deal ended at the end of 2007, and Lionsgate and MGM's were up at the end of 2008. In effect they had a chance to get a jump on the other studios which are tied up in other deals for years to come (including Paramount sibling DreamWorks, which has a separate deal with HBO).

UPDATE: Many questions remain about how long it will take--this thing won't launch until January 2009, apparently--to set up distrib agreements with major carriers and infrastructure.

Indy 4 Advance Gossip

Don't believe anything you read about Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull based on people who have actually seen it because as far as I know, Steven Spielberg has only shown it to the Cannes Film Festival (read Todd McCarthy's story here). Yes, the movie will show in Cannes, as we initially reported, on May 18. It will screen in the states that same day, just before its global opening May 22. There will be no junket. (Jeffrey Katzenberg will also debut Kung Fu Panda in Cannes, on May 15, in the traditional DreamWorks Animation slot.)

Jeffrey Wells' source for Indiana Jones being 140 minutes is impeccable, he says: composer John Williams. Besides, Spielberg's films have been running long lately. Terminal ran over two hours at 128 minutes; Catch Me If You Can was 141 minutes; and Munich was 164 minutes long. So at least he's going backwards! Slashfilm reports the running times on the Indy films-- "Previous installments ran 115, 118, 127 minutes respectively (and in order from Raiders to Last Crusade)." UPDATE: Wells has run a correction. Producer Frank Marshall has informed Paramount that the movie is just over two hours, including credits.

This amazingly speculative Indy 4 blog post from New York's Vulture fancifully cobbles together the mere suggestion that George Lucas is downplaying the movie, so it must be as bad as Star Wars: Episode 1--The Phantom Menace. This inspires the idea that Shia LaBeouf will prove to be Indy's Jar Jar Binks! Jesus. A headline in search of a story.

By comparison, this item at CHUD is based on actual reporting. The advance buzz on Indy is getting damaging enough that Lucas and Spielberg may want to reconsider the current strategy of waiting until May 18 to show the film to everyone at once. That's a long way off.

Remember, all the controlling behavior on Munich PR only backfired. Spielberg has an old-fashioned view of marketing. He doesn't like how fast-moving everything is now. Saving up for the big reveal can backfire in a huge way, as last year's The Da Vinci Code proved at Cannes. (At least Indy 4 is not slated for opening night.) In other words, you better have the goods. UPDATE: EW talks to Lucas and Spielberg about their take on all things Indy.

Warners Whacks New Line Ranks

Warner Brothers has cut some 450 jobs at New Line Cinema. The move was expected, as the parent studio has absorbed its subsid. That doesn't make it any less tough on the folks who've been waiting to see if they had a job or not. Now they know.

Post Studio Stress Disorder

More and more, I've been talking to producers, filmmakers and agents who don't seem to understand how to function in today's three-tiered universe. There's the big studios and their tentpoles, formula genre fare and comedies, the occasional star-driven vehicle that the studios wouldn't make without a George Clooney on board, like Leatherheads, and there's the studio subsids and indies. In the middle is a raft of indie financeers and suppliers who play both sides of the street, some geared toward the foreign market.

It's tough to put movies together these days, and even studio heavyweights like Scott Rudin have to lower their expectations to get their more difficult projects made. (In his new incarnation at Disney/Miramax Rudin is like a man unshackled from his chains--he's running with such pics as No Country for Old men and There Will be Blood, both in partnership with Miramax and Paramount Vantage.) But other producers aren't as resourceful and powerful as Rudin. Many are having more trouble adapting to a world where they --and not the studio--have to do all the work.

Here's my column about post-studio stress disorder.

UA Pushes Back Cruise and Singer's Valkyrie

In retrospect, the MGM-UA idea is starting to look suspect.

When movie star Tom Cruise and partner Paula Wagner had a producing pact at Paramount, a studio controlled the purse strings, with the power to say no.

But put Cruise and Wagner in charge of a studio, and you have Wagner assembling a slate on the one hand, but who does she answer to? Cruise! And CAA (and husband Rick Nicita) are helping to package projects like Lions for Lambs, which was doomed to be a noble failure from the start. From Cruise/Wagner's perspective, coming from big-studio projects, at $35 million Lambs probably seemed like a modest effort. But it was still too expensive for what it was. Its $15 million domestic gross (of which less than half is returned to the studio) didn't cover its marketing costs. It also earned $42 million overseas. The just-launched DVD release will have to bring the movie into the black.

And Valkyrie is a perfect storm. I hear that director Bryan Singer, who has runaway director tendencies anyway, has run up a $90-million negative tab, which probably seemed reasonable to him, since he was coming off the $200-million Superman Returns. Because Cruise had to promote the opening of Lions for Lambs, Singer postponed three key scenes of the Valkyrie shoot, including one big battle sequence in North Africa. (That's when Cruise's Nazi officer loses his right hand, plus two fingers from his left hand, and an eye.)

But pushing the movie's release date back twice has made it look like tainted goods. Cruise and Wagner took a calculated risk pushing it back to February, knowing that an October date was facing off against the looming Presidential election. As soon as Wolfman and the Pink Panther sequel moved off of Presidents Day, UA jumped on the date. Their October weekend usually yields a b.o. of about $55 million, the thinking went, as opposed to Prexy Day, which usually generates about three times that. Singer and Cruise signed off on the promise of a possible Superbowl spot, Berlin Film Fest launch, and a bigger boxoffice bonanza.

They must have known how the town would react. When you say: "No, we don't have a summer movie, it's a fall movie," it really means: "we don't have a commercial movie that will stand up to the competition in wide release, but a quality smart film with possible Oscar potential that needs critics, so we'll go for fall." But push that same movie again into February, and it conjures up All the Kings Men, which was too weak to earn rave reviews and had no identifiable core audience.

The trouble with the whole MGM construct is that a decision about making or picking up a movie for release has to be based on a slew of market equations. Targeting your audience is crucial. Just because Hot Director Bryan Singer and Major Star Tom Cruise want to make a period movie about a Nazi hero doesn't make it worth $90-million (not to mention marketing costs). (Much as I loved it, Alfonso Cuaron's Children of Men shouldn't have cost that much either. Who was the audience?)

MGM CEO Harry Sloan was smart to hire Mary Parent to run MGM. She will run studio production, marketing and distribution. (That's why Rick Sands is out.) She will be damn sure to pick movies she can market. That's half the battle. And Hollywood sat up and took notice of this move, because they know that Parent gets it.

Polling Summer 2008: Indy 4 and Dark Knight Lead the Pack

Fandango pollsters report that their filmgoers most want to see Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull and Dark Knight during the summer of 2008.

Here are the results of Fandango.com's online nationwide survey, conducted from March 13 to March 30:

Most Anticipated Summer 2008 Movie:

1. INDIANA JONES AND THE KINGDOM OF THE CRYSTAL SKULL (82%)

2. THE DARK KNIGHT (42%)

3. IRON MAN (38%)

4. THE CHRONICLES OF NARNIA: PRINCE CASPIAN (37%)

5. THE MUMMY: TOMB OF THE DRAGON EMPEROR (30%)

6. GET SMART (29%)

7. THE INCREDIBLE HULK (22%)

8. THE UNTITLED X-FILES SEQUEL (20%)

9. SPEED RACER (19%)

10. SEX AND THE CITY (19%)

Indy 4: Good for All Indiana Jones DVD Sales

Over the spring break, my college freshman daughter Nora watched Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom. And she wants to catch up with all the Indy Jones pics. Raiders of the Lost Ark came out in 1981, long before she was born. So she wants to be up to speed when the highly anticipated first installment in 18 years comes out.

Paramount is well aware. They sent to press around the country a mailer full of posters of all the Indiana Jones movies. They also sent out leather whips. Boomers saw these movies as they came out. They are fond of them, and will take their kids to the new one. Folks all over the world will be ordering the three-pic Indiana Jones DVD set before the May 22 opening --many of them from Lucasfilm's handy-dandy Indy Jones store on the Indiana Jones site, which offers the Young Indiana Jones series on DVD as well.

Paramount has posted the latest Indy 4 TV spot at the Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull website.

Summer Movies: Will Indy 4 and Speed Racer be Prescription for Recession Blues?

Hollywood has historically been recession-proof. According to Time, summer popcorn movies like Indy 4 and Speed Racer will be just what America needs as it slides into recession. So why am I, the most ardent moviegoer, making more dates with friends to watch DVDs at various well-appointed home viewing rooms? It's partly because the kid I used to go to weekend movies with is in college. It is also the time of year. I have already seen most of the well-reviewed movies in release. I will be as hungry as everyone else for the big summer pics when they finally arrive, and will see them in theaters.

Sequels: Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, Indy 4, Dark Knight

Here's a new photo from Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, due in theaters November 21.

Here's more on the final two Harry Potter movie installments and Hollywood's love affair with the sequel from CBS News:

John Hurt gives some scoop on Indiana Jones and Kingdom of the Crystal Skull.

At ShoWest, Christian Bale talks about The Dark Knight and Heath Ledger:

And the NYP looks into George Lucas's move into TV with Star Wars and Clone Wars, which is also going to be an animated movie.